NHL Projected Standings & Title Odds

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times, playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities, to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-09-15.

#	Team	Now	Proj. wins	Best-record odds
1	Colorado AvalancheCOL	51-16	53.0(51–55)	80.6%
2	Carolina HurricanesCAR	50-22	52.2(50–54)	17.7%
3	Buffalo SabresBUF	49-23	50.9(49–53)	1.5%
4	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	48-25	49.9(48–52)	0.1%
5	Montréal CanadiensMTL	47-22	49.3(47–52)	0.1%
6	Dallas StarsDAL	46-20	48.2(46–50)	0.0%
7	Minnesota WildMIN	45-21	47.2(45–49)	0.0%
8	Boston BruinsBOS	43-26	45.1(43–47)	0.0%
9	New York IslandersNYI	43-31	44.8(43–47)	0.0%
10	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	42-27	44.6(42–47)	0.0%
11	Detroit Red WingsDET	41-29	43.2(41–45)	0.0%
12	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	41-22	43.1(41–45)	0.0%
13	Anaheim DucksANA	41-32	43.1(41–45)	0.0%
14	Utah MammothUTA	41-30	42.6(41–45)	0.0%
15	Washington CapitalsWSH	40-30	42.4(40–44)	0.0%
16	Edmonton OilersEDM	40-29	42.0(40–44)	0.0%
17	New Jersey DevilsNJD	40-36	41.8(40–44)	0.0%
18	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	40-27	41.5(40–44)	0.0%
19	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	39-28	40.8(39–43)	0.0%
20	Florida PanthersFLA	37-38	38.9(37–41)	0.0%
21	Nashville PredatorsNSH	37-31	38.9(37–41)	0.0%
22	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	36-26	38.4(36–40)	0.0%
23	San Jose SharksSJS	37-33	38.4(37–41)	0.0%
24	Winnipeg JetsWPG	34-31	36.2(34–38)	0.0%
25	New York RangersNYR	33-37	35.4(33–37)	0.0%
26	St. Louis BluesSTL	33-32	35.1(33–37)	0.0%
27	Los Angeles KingsLAK	32-26	34.3(32–36)	0.0%
28	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	32-33	34.1(32–36)	0.0%
29	Seattle KrakenSEA	32-34	34.0(32–36)	0.0%
30	Calgary FlamesCGY	32-36	33.8(32–36)	0.0%
31	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	28-36	29.5(28–32)	0.0%
32	Vancouver CanucksVAN	22-47	24.1(22–26)	0.0%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record, a clean, bias-free read on the title race.

NHL power rankings Standings