The Model Cards
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. MLB picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
MLB picks to win4 games, most likely winner first
CWS@
HOU
Pick HOU58% to winat -147market 57%
CHC@
SD
Pick SD56% to winat -137market 55%
BOS@
NYY
Pick NYY56% to winat -144market 56%
PHI@
ATL
Pick PHI51% to winat -117market 52%
Games ticketall 4 picks to win
MISSHOU + SD + NYY + PHI
+814
combined odds
9.3%
chance it all hits
-15%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Hunter BrownHOU · P
Over 5.5 strikeouts · model 71% · projects 7 · actual 2
Sonny GrayBOS · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 82% · projects 5.2 · actual 5
Cristopher SánchezPHI · P
Over 4.5 strikeouts · model 78% · projects 6.3 · actual 6
Tyler MahleATL · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 80% · projects 5 · actual 6
Sean BurkeCWS · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 83% · projects 5.2 · actual 8
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.