The Model Cards
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. MLB picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Frozen 11:00 AM ET, prices are freeze-time lines and never edited after.
MLB picks to win4 games, most likely winner first
CWS@
HOU
Pick HOU58% to winat -147market 57%
CHC@
SD
Pick SD56% to winat -137market 55%
BOS@
NYY
Pick NYY56% to winat -144market 56%
PHI@
ATL
Pick PHI51% to winat -117market 52%
The card as one ticketall 4 legs
HOU + SD + NYY + PHI
+814
combined odds
9.3%
chance it all hits
-15%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design. Play the legs straight, or the ticket for the sweat, your call.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Hunter BrownHOU · P
Over 5.5 strikeouts · model 71% · projects 7
Sonny GrayBOS · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 82% · projects 5.2
Cristopher SánchezPHI · P
Over 4.5 strikeouts · model 78% · projects 6.3
Tyler MahleATL · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 80% · projects 5
Sean BurkeCWS · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 83% · projects 5.2
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes; grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.