Week 5 Start/Sit: Start Michael Wilson, Isaiah Likely and Jameis Winston, Sit Jalen Hurts and Tyler Shough

Week 5's Sunday slate rewards managers who follow volume and matchups over name value. Michael Wilson and Isaiah Likely draw two of the softest pass defenses in the league, Jaylen Warren keeps the Pittsburgh backfield to himself while Rico Dowdle's toe heals, and Jalen Hurts and Tyler Shough walk into the two worst quarterback spots on the board. With Kansas City and Carolina on bye, every start/sit call below is built on confirmed Week 4 usage and the matchup data available through Tuesday.

The market frames the week clearly. Detroit at Arizona carries the highest Sunday total at 54 with the Lions favored by 4, Houston at Tennessee sits at the bottom near 39.5, and Cincinnati is a 7.5-point road favorite in Miami with a total of 42. Those numbers shape nearly every call that follows.

Quarterbacks: start Jameis Winston, sit Hurts and Shough

Start Jameis Winston, Giants at Commanders. Winston took over for the injured Jaxson Dart, who needs season-ending knee surgery, and immediately produced: 18 of 29 for 250 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 4 win over Arizona. Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and is tied for the most touchdown passes allowed through four weeks. Malik Nabers posted his first 100-yard game of the season with Winston throwing to him (six catches, 112 yards, a touchdown). Winston is a streaming QB1 this week, with the usual interception risk baked in.

Sit Jalen Hurts, Eagles at Jaguars (London). Hurts threw for 93 yards against the Rams, and Philadelphia now travels to London without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert. Jacksonville has allowed only three passing touchdowns while intercepting six passes through four games, and the kickoff is 9:30 a.m. ET. His rushing floor keeps him startable in deep leagues, but managers with a comparable option should take it.

Sit Tyler Shough, Saints vs. Vikings. Minnesota has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and held Miami's Malik Willis to 9 of 17 passing for 85 yards in Week 4. The Vikings have allowed three passing touchdowns all season. He is a bench in one-quarterback leagues.

Running backs: start Warren, Monangai and Emanuel Wilson

Start Jaylen Warren, Steelers vs. Colts. With Dowdle sidelined, Warren has 220 rushing yards and 82 receiving yards over the last two games as the clear lead back. Pittsburgh is coming off extra rest after playing on Thursday in Week 4, Indianapolis is returning from London, and the Colts' run defense ranks in the bottom third of the league. Even if Dowdle returns, Warren is an RB2.

Start Kyle Monangai, Bears at Packers. Monangai's 30 carries for 146 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets were not a fluke of game script; Ben Johnson leaned on him after D'Andre Swift's fumble and kept leaning. With Tyson Bagent at quarterback, Chicago will run, and the thumb injury is not considered serious. He is an RB2 if he practices this week.

Start Emanuel Wilson, Seahawks vs. 49ers. Wilson handled 21 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown and added three catches for 39 yards and a receiving score in his first week as Seattle's lead back. That is a true three-down role, and Seattle is a 3-point home favorite.

Start Ollie Gordon II, Dolphins vs. Bengals. Gordon ran for 100 yards and a touchdown against a Minnesota run defense that ranks among the league's better units, and he was responsible for roughly half of Miami's 198 total yards. With De'Von Achane out for the season and two teams on bye, his workload floor is valuable.

Sit Will Shipley and Jeremiyah Love. Shipley inherits volume in Philadelphia but faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs and one rushing touchdown all season. Love reportedly tweaked his ankle in Week 4; in a game Detroit is favored to control, he becomes a touchdown-dependent flex until he practices fully. Also sit David Montgomery in Houston: he has 67 rushing yards across the last three games, and the Texans have signaled a larger role for Woody Marks.

Wide receivers: start Michael Wilson, sit Josh Downs

Start Michael Wilson, Cardinals vs. Lions. Wilson drew 17 targets in Week 3 (11 catches, 89 yards, a touchdown) and followed with seven catches for 95 yards against the Giants. He is Arizona's clear top receiver, and Detroit's secondary just allowed 329 passing yards and two touchdowns to Bryce Young. In the highest-total game of the day, Wilson is a WR1 regardless of quarterback.

Start Malik Nabers, Giants at Commanders. The Winston connection is already working, and Washington's struggles in coverage apply to Nabers as much as to the quarterback. He returns to every-week WR1 status.

Start Jordan Addison, Vikings at Saints. Whether or not Justin Jefferson returns from his ankle sprain, Addison stepped into the lead-receiver role in Week 4 and stays a WR2 in a game Minnesota is narrowly favored to win.

Sit Josh Downs, Colts at Steelers. Downs caught three passes for 16 yards against Washington in Week 4, and Daniel Jones has thrown for 611 yards through four games. The volume is not there. Also sit Terry McLaurin until Washington's quarterback picture settles: Jayden Daniels is working back from his elbow injury and Marcus Mariota has a sprained MCL.

Tight ends: start Likely and Hunter Henry, sit Tucker Kraft

Start Isaiah Likely, Giants at Commanders. Likely caught seven passes for 66 yards on 12 targets in Week 4 and has 22 catches for 190 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Washington allows 19.1 PPR points per game to tight ends, among the most in the league. He is a top-eight option this week.

Start Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Raiders. Henry has 12 catches for 133 yards on 15 targets and caught five passes for 62 yards in Week 4. Las Vegas gives up 18.1 PPR points per game to the position. He is a strong streamer for managers without a locked-in starter.

Start Mike Gesicki, Bengals at Dolphins. Gesicki caught three passes for 40 yards and a touchdown in Week 4, and with Ja'Marr Chase in the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins day to day, he is one of Joe Burrow's most reliable remaining targets.

Sit Tucker Kraft, Packers vs. Bears. Chicago allows just 6.7 PPR points per game to tight ends, the second-fewest in the league. Kraft's touchdown last week masks a modest 42 yards. For Monday night, Dalton Kincaid faces a Rams defense allowing the fewest points to tight ends after catching one pass for 7 yards in Week 4.

The Verdexed angle

The common thread is that the Giants-Commanders game is the most underrated environment on the Sunday slate. Winston, Nabers and Likely all get upgraded, and the matchup data say Washington's defense, not its offense, is the story. On the other side, Detroit-Arizona deserves its hype, but Arizona's pass catchers are the better value because the Lions' secondary has bled yards and the Cardinals will be throwing to keep pace.

The sits are mostly about quarterback play: Hurts without his weapons, Shough against the league's stingiest pass defense, Downs tethered to a low-volume passing game. Those are the spots where name value tempts managers into bad decisions.

What's next

Wednesday's practice reports will settle several of these calls. Monangai's thumb, Jefferson's ankle and Dowdle's toe each change the backfield and receiver math in their games, and a Friday designation is the time to finalize. Follow the NFL predictions page for Verdexed's game outlooks, and see NFL Week 5 picks for the full slate.