The Giants Are Building a Power Run Offense Around Cam Skattebo

The Giants' new offense under head coach John Harbaugh looks nothing like the one Jaxson Dart ran as a rookie, and the fantasy consequences are larger than the roster changes suggest. Matt Nagy is calling the plays and has said publicly that only about half the system has been installed. Greg Roman, one of the most accomplished run-game designers of the last 15 years, was added to the staff and is expected to be heavily involved in the ground attack. New York also signed 300-pound fullback Patrick Ricard, which is not a signing a team makes by accident.

Add those pieces together and the picture is clear: significantly more under-center work, more two-back and heavy personnel, and a run game built on power rather than on spacing. That is a specific fantasy profile, and it does not treat every skill position equally.

What the install actually changes

Dart operated out of shotgun and spread formations for most of his rookie season. Nagy's system asks for more under-center play-action, longer developing concepts, and a quarterback who reads through progressions from a deeper drop. The reported growing pains in camp, sacks, interceptions, pre-snap penalties and three-and-outs in 11-on-11 periods, are the normal cost of that transition rather than an indictment of the quarterback.

Roman's presence is the more predictive detail. Offenses he has shaped have consistently ranked among the league leaders in rush attempts and in designed quarterback runs, and they have consistently sat below league average in pass attempts. He builds run games that punish defenses on early downs and force light boxes, and he does it with fullbacks, extra linemen and gap schemes rather than with spread formations.

The Ricard signing is the confirmation. Teams do not pay for a lead-blocking fullback unless they intend to run behind him.

Fantasy fallout: Skattebo is the winner

Cam Skattebo is the player whose value moves most. He is a bruising second-year back, he has recovered from the serious leg and ankle injury that ended his rookie season, and he is now the featured runner in a scheme designed to run between the tackles behind a fullback.

Skattebo's ADP has already climbed, to roughly RB18, from a much later price earlier in the summer, with Tyrone Tracy Jr. going far behind him. That move is directionally correct. A recent soft-tissue issue adds risk, and RB18 is no longer a bargain, but the scheme fit is as clean as any in the league. If Roman's fingerprints are on the run game, this backfield is going to see a lot of carries, and Skattebo is built for the ones that matter near the goal line.

The caveat is the receiving work. Roman-influenced offenses have not historically produced high-volume pass-catching backs, which caps Skattebo's PPR ceiling and makes Tracy the more likely third-down option. In half-PPR and standard formats, Skattebo is the better asset than his price suggests. In full PPR, he is priced about right.

Fantasy fallout: the passing game gets smaller

The flip side is that a run-heavy offense means fewer total pass attempts, and that is a headwind for everyone catching the ball.

Malik Nabers remains the WR1 and remains worth his price, but the injury timeline matters more here than it would in a pass-heavy scheme. He has progressed from ACL and meniscus surgery to controlled team drills, and his Week 1 status is still uncertain. A receiver returning from a major knee injury into an offense that throws less than the league average is a narrower path to a top-12 finish than his draft cost implies.

Isaiah Likely, signed for three years and roughly $40 million after playing for Harbaugh in Baltimore, has been the standout of camp and has been described by beat reporters as Dart's No. 1 target with Nabers limited. That is real, and Nagy's system does feature tight ends. But it is also a role inflated by an absence. When Nabers returns to full participation, Likely's target share falls, and what remains is a tight end in a run-first offense whose value will be concentrated in touchdowns and play-action seams.

Likely is a fine TE1 streamer and a poor bet to finish as a top-five tight end. Draft him as the former.

The Verdexed model take

Our projection has the Giants' pass rate falling meaningfully from last season and their neutral-script rush rate climbing into the top third of the league. That single input drives most of the fantasy conclusions above.

On the betting side, the expression is game totals rather than the win total. New York's win total sits at 7.5 with the under modestly favored in the NFC East market, and a scheme change does not move a win projection much in either direction. Pace does. Offenses that run more and throw less shorten games, reduce possessions, and drag totals down, and Giants game totals set on last year's tempo will be too high early in the season before the market catches up.

The model also flags Dart as a fade in season-long passing yardage markets and a modest buy in rushing markets, because Roman-influenced systems have consistently generated designed quarterback runs. That combination, low passing volume with real rushing production, is a specific superflex profile: a quarterback whose fantasy floor comes from his legs.

What to watch

The first thing is formation data in the final preseason week. If the Giants line up under center on a majority of their snaps with the starters on the field, everything above holds. If they revert to shotgun once the games count, Nagy's system is closer to his Kansas City roots than his Chicago ones and the passing game recovers.

The second is Nabers' practice progression. Full team participation before the regular season opener would restore his projection. Another limited designation in the last week of August pushes his Week 1 availability into real doubt and hands Likely a September role worth streaming.

The third is snap distribution between Skattebo and Tracy in the preseason. A clean separation makes Skattebo one of the safer mid-round backs on the board. A split makes him a touchdown-dependent RB2 at an RB18 price, which is the version of this offense fantasy managers should be most worried about.