The Giants Appear Intent on Featuring Isaiah Likely, and Jaxson Dart Keeps Finding Him

Isaiah Likely has emerged from the first stretch of New York Giants training camp as the clearest secondary target in the passing game, and the reporting out of The Greenbrier has been consistent enough to act on. Likely has displayed obvious early chemistry with quarterback Jaxson Dart, and the tight end now projects as the No. 2 option behind Malik Nabers.

The Giants signed Likely to a three-year deal reported at $40 million this offseason, a figure that placed him among the five highest-paid tight ends in the league. Teams do not pay that rate for a complementary piece. Head coach John Harbaugh has been direct about the intent, framing Likely as a player Dart will enjoy having in his line of vision, which is coach-speak for a quarterback's outlet on the routes that produce volume.

The practice notes back it up. Likely has been pulling in throws from Dart in seven-on-seven work, including a one-handed catch, and he has been the target on the intermediate crossing routes that define a tight end's usable fantasy production. A roughly 15-yard crosser floated over linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is the exact route type that turns a tight end from a touchdown-dependent flier into a weekly starter.

Why the situation fits

New York's offensive design under Harbaugh has leaned heavily on under-center work, which matters more for tight end usage than most fantasy analysis credits. Dart took 18 of 30 snaps under center in one recent session, roughly 60 percent, and under-center offenses generate play-action, and play-action generates the intermediate middle-of-the-field throws that tight ends live on.

The target competition is also thin in a way that helps. Malik Nabers is the unquestioned alpha and will command the highest target share on the roster, but Nabers is also coming off an ACL recovery and took his first full practice only at the end of July. Behind him, the Giants' receiver group does not contain a player with an established claim on volume. Theo Johnson's camp work has, according to the local coverage, effectively validated the decision to add Likely rather than complicated it.

That leaves Likely in the most valuable position a tight end can occupy: the second option in an offense with one dominant receiver and no third target with leverage.

Fantasy fallout

The tight end position in 2026 splits into a small elite group and a large undifferentiated middle. Brock Bowers and Trey McBride sit alone at the top. Colston Loveland has become the consensus breakout pick and is being drafted accordingly. Below that, the position is a coin flip between a dozen players with similar profiles and similar prices.

Likely's case is that his situation is better than his draft cost implies. He is attached to a defined role, a contract that guarantees he plays, a quarterback who is already looking for him, and a scheme that produces tight end targets by design. Most of the players drafted around him have at most two of those four.

The risk is real and should be named. Dart is a young quarterback whose accuracy and decision-making are unproven across a full season, and tight end production is more quarterback-dependent than any other position. A passing offense that stalls takes its tight end down with it. Likely also has a career history of flashes rather than sustained volume, which is precisely why he was available at this price.

The reasonable read is that Likely belongs at the top of the second tier rather than in the undifferentiated middle. He is a target to move up your board, not a player to reach for two rounds early.

The Verdexed model take

Our projection system weights role certainty heavily at tight end, because the position's weekly variance is driven almost entirely by target volume rather than efficiency. A tight end with six targets a game and mediocre efficiency outproduces a tight end with three targets and excellent efficiency in nearly every scoring format.

On that basis, Likely's projected target share has moved up since camp opened, and it is now the second-highest on the Giants roster in our model. His projected receptions land him inside the top 10 at the position, with a touchdown projection that is deliberately conservative because New York's red-zone offense is unproven with Dart.

The gap between that projection and his average draft position is where the value sits. Our model has him meaningfully ahead of the tight ends being selected in the same range, and the driver is not talent evaluation. It is the target math.

The caveat our model applies is a wider confidence band than usual, reflecting Dart's inexperience. Likely's ceiling scenario is a top-five tight end season. His floor scenario is a touchdown-dependent TE2. Both outcomes are live, and the price he is being drafted at only requires the middle of that range to be a win.

Betting angle

When receiving-yardage and reception season-long props post for Likely, the over on receptions is the cleaner side than the over on yards. His projected role is high-volume and intermediate rather than vertical, and reception props for tight ends changing teams are typically anchored to prior-season totals in a different offense.

The Giants' team passing total is a separate consideration and a more cautious one. A young quarterback in a run-leaning under-center scheme is not a formula for volume, and betting the Giants' passing output up on the strength of tight end chemistry would be extending the signal further than it supports.

Anytime touchdown scorer markets for Likely in early-season games are worth monitoring rather than acting on now. Those numbers will be priced off name recognition until he produces, and a tight end who is his quarterback's comfort target near the goal line is exactly the kind of player those markets underrate.

What to do in your league

If you are punting tight end, Likely is the best version of that strategy available at his cost. He offers the situation of a much earlier pick without the price.

If you are drafting a tight end in the middle rounds, take Likely over the similarly priced options whose roles are unresolved. Role certainty in August is worth more than upside speculation.

Do not draft Likely as a Bowers or McBride replacement. The ceiling is real but the quarterback risk is real too, and a manager who pays elite prices for a second-tier situation has given away the edge that made the pick good.

In dynasty formats, the contract matters. Three years at that rate means New York is committed through the window in which Dart either becomes a franchise quarterback or does not, and Likely's value moves with that answer.

What's next

The next real signal is the preseason. Watch whether Likely is on the field for the Giants' opening series with Dart, and specifically whether he is aligned in the slot or flexed wide rather than attached to the line. Tight ends who are moved around are tight ends the offense is designing for. Tight ends who stay in-line are blockers who occasionally catch passes, and the fantasy gap between those two jobs is the entire position.