Week 7 Trade Targets: Buy A.J. Brown, Bijan Robinson and Luther Burden III, Sell Kyren Williams and Rhamondre Stevenson

Week 6 produced several box scores that hide what the usage actually showed, and that gap is where fantasy trades get won. A.J. Brown caught 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards in his return from injured reserve, but he ran a route on 97.1% of New England's dropbacks and led the team with a 28.1% target share, per PlayerProfiler. Kyren Williams had a respectable 67 scrimmage yards, but he ceded nine carries to Blake Corum and publicly questioned his role afterward. One looks like a sell and is a buy. The other looks fine and is a sell.

With the Bills, Jaguars, Chargers and Commanders on bye this week, many managers are short-handed and more willing to deal. These are the moves to make before Week 7 kicks off Thursday.

The table below summarizes each recommendation alongside the Week 6 usage that drives it.

Buy: A.J. Brown

The drops were real, and Brown's manager probably watched every one of them. That frustration is the opening. A receiver running a route on nearly every dropback and earning more than a quarter of the targets in his first game back is a WR1 in waiting, and the situation around him just improved. Romeo Doubs went on injured reserve Monday with a shoulder injury and cannot return until Week 12 at the earliest, which removes the receiver who caught Drake Maye's 42-yard touchdown on Sunday.

Maye threw three touchdowns without a turnover against the Jets, and the Patriots have won three straight. The concern is the offensive line, with Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown all hurt, but pressure tends to push quarterbacks toward their most trusted target. Offer a WR2 with a cleaner recent box score and see if the Brown manager bites.

Buy: Bijan Robinson

Nine carries for 61 yards and minus-8 receiving yards against Chicago was one of the most disappointing lines of the week. It was also a product of the scoreboard. The Bears led 31-7 in the fourth quarter, and Atlanta abandoned the run. Robinson still played 47 of the team's 61 snaps, per NBC Sports, and averaged 6.8 yards per carry when he did get the ball.

He entered the week with a team-high 580 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and nothing in the snap data suggests a role change. Robinson will not come cheap, but the price is lower this week than it will be after his next big game. Managers holding a hot running back with a thinner role, such as a committee back coming off a touchdown, should test whether that player plus a sweetener gets it done.

Buy: Luther Burden III

The Bears' passing game changed the moment Caleb Williams returned. He completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, and Burden led the team with 8 catches for 95 yards on 8 targets. With DJ Moore traded to Buffalo, Burden and Colston Loveland (7 targets) are the clear top two options, while Rome Odunze saw only 4 targets.

Burden's value in many leagues still reflects the weeks Williams missed. Buy him now as a WR2 for the rest of the season. Loveland is a similar buy at tight end if your league prices him as a streamer.

Sell: Kyren Williams and Rhamondre Stevenson

Williams is still the Rams' starter. He played roughly 72% of the snaps in Week 6 and has a 71% usage rate through six games, per NBC Sports. The problem is efficiency of opportunity: Corum gets the ball on about 47% of his snaps, compared with about 36% for Williams. That means Corum is being used as a hammer, and Sean McVay described Williams as emotional after the game rather than signaling a change. The Rams are 2-4, and a struggling offense has rarely fixed itself by giving the starter more work. A Week 7 date with the Raiders is a good chance for Williams to post a strong line. Sell him the moment he does.

Stevenson is a simpler case. He played 41 snaps (60%) against the Jets but gained 36 yards on 14 carries, and over the final 17 minutes, third-stringer Corey Kiner took 11 carries for 57 yards. Mike Vrabel called it a hot-hand backfield, and TreVeyon Henderson was a full participant Monday despite his ankle injury. Three backs and a banged-up offensive line add up to a falling floor. Move Stevenson for a receiver with a defined role.

Sell or hold: RJ Harvey and Cam Skattebo

Harvey played 21 snaps (37%) against Seattle, and J.K. Dobbins handled 20 opportunities and scored for the second straight game. Harvey's touchdown keeps his name warm, but the role is that of a change-of-pace back. Sell him to anyone who values the draft pedigree.

Skattebo is a hold, not a sell, because his value is too low to sell. He played six snaps and did not touch the ball in the loss to New Orleans after fumbling four times in five games, and he said he understood he was being punished. John Harbaugh said the lack of work was not by design and that Skattebo was not benched. Tyrone Tracy Jr. scored twice in his place, but Giants running backs combined for 34 yards on 14 carries. If Skattebo secures the ball, the job could come back quickly. Do not sell at the bottom.

The Verdexed angle

The market has the same split on the field. Chicago opened as a short home favorite over New England for Thursday, which reflects confidence in the Williams-led passing game that Burden is part of. Seattle is a home favorite over unbeaten Kansas City, a price that respects Kenneth Walker III's role but suggests a lower-scoring game. Walker is a hold at the top of the rushing leaderboard, not a sell, unless someone pays a true RB1 price. The desk's view is that targets and route share predict future fantasy points better than a single game's yardage, which is why Brown and Burden lead this list. For the model's matchup view, see Verdexed's Week 7 picks and Verdexed's NFL predictions page.

What's next

Brown and Stevenson play Thursday night, so the window on those two closes quickly. If you plan to buy Brown or sell Stevenson, do it before kickoff. Wednesday's practice reports will also show whether the Patriots' linemen can play, which could shift the price on both. The rest of these moves can wait until Sunday's games settle, but the best buy-low windows rarely last more than a week.