C.J. Stroud and Jaylin Noel Lift Texans Past Jaguars 34-31 in London: Fantasy Fallout

The Houston Texans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-31 at Wembley Stadium on Sunday when Ka'imi Fairbairn drilled a 49-yard field goal as time expired. C.J. Stroud threw three touchdown passes, Jaylin Noel posted a career-high receiving day, and Houston won for the second straight week to climb to 2-4. Jacksonville fell to 4-2 but still leads the AFC South.

It was a shootout neither defense will want to rewatch. Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns, Travis Hunter caught a touchdown and intercepted Stroud in the end zone, and Cam Little hit a 60-yard field goal that tied the game 31-31 with 1:55 left. Stroud answered with the drive that set up Fairbairn. The Jaguars were 2.5-point favorites before kickoff, per pregame previews, so Houston cashed outright as an underdog.

How the game unfolded

Houston led 17-14 at halftime behind two short Foster Moreau touchdown catches, one from 7 yards and one from 1 yard with eight seconds left in the half. Bhayshul Tuten kept Jacksonville close with two touchdown catches in the second quarter, a 27-yard catch-and-run and a 2-yarder. A third Tuten score, a short run, was wiped out by a holding call on tight end Brenton Strange.

Stroud opened the second half with a 13-yard touchdown to Noel, and after rookie tight end Nate Boerkircher made a one-handed 1-yard grab for Jacksonville, Jawhar Jordan ripped off a 25-yard touchdown run, the first score of his career, to make it 31-21. Lawrence hit Hunter for a 7-yard touchdown early in the fourth, Hunter picked off Stroud in the end zone, and Little's 60-yarder pulled the Jaguars even before Houston's final march.

The Jaguars entered Week 6 with one of the league's best scoring defenses, per the team's own game report, and still allowed 426 total yards. Houston scored touchdowns on three of four drives spanning the second through fourth quarters.

Texans fantasy fallout: Stroud, Noel, Collins and the backfield

Stroud went 24-of-34 for 312 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, per the Jaguars' official game report (one national recap listed 306 yards). The bigger story is the shape of the passing game. Noel finished with four catches for 107 yards and a touchdown, his best career output, and is the clear winner of the London trip. With Jayden Higgins lost for the season earlier this year, Noel has a path to steady No. 2 receiver volume, and he belongs on rosters in 12-team leagues.

Nico Collins was quieter with three catches for 74 yards, including a 42-yard contested grab, but that still extended his streak of 50-yard receiving games, which coverage described as the longest active run in the league. He remains a locked-in WR1. Marvin Harrison Jr., acquired from Arizona for 2027 second- and seventh-round picks (Houston also received a 2027 sixth), debuted after one practice and caught three passes for 34 yards on four targets while playing a limited snap count. His Ohio State history with Stroud makes him a stash, not a start, until his snap share grows.

Woody Marks handled lead-back duty with David Montgomery sidelined by a groin injury. Marks carried 15 times for 56 yards and added two catches, including a 19-yarder that helped set up the final drive, for 81 scrimmage yards on 17 touches. Jordan's 25-yard touchdown makes him the change-of-pace name to know, but Marks owns the volume while Montgomery is out. Moreau's two red-zone scores are hard to chase in a crowded target tree.

Jaguars fantasy fallout: Lawrence, Tuten, Hunter and a Thomas problem

Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards with four touchdowns and one interception, the first four-touchdown game against Houston since Sam Darnold in 2024, according to CBS Sports. Two scores went to Tuten and one each to Hunter and Boerkircher. That is a ceiling game from a quarterback whose attempts climbed with the score, and it should restore some confidence for managers who streamed him.

Tuten is the Jaguars' lead back now that Travis Etienne Jr. has moved on to New Orleans, and his usage in this game was encouraging even though the rushing efficiency was not: 12 carries for 39 yards, plus four catches for 48 yards and his first career two-touchdown game. The receiving role is what makes him a weekly RB2. Ameer Abdullah was evaluated for a concussion in the first quarter and cleared to return.

Hunter was the breakout. Four catches for 59 yards and a touchdown on offense, plus an end-zone interception, made him the first player since 2002 to catch a touchdown and record an interception in the same game. In leagues that count both sides of the ball, he is a must-add, and his offensive snaps look like they are trending up. Parker Washington continued as the steadiest wideout with four catches for 64 yards.

The red flag is Brian Thomas Jr. He was targeted twice, caught nothing, had a drop, and played only 15 snaps, all in the first half, before sitting the entire second half. Through six games he has nine catches for 105 yards and one touchdown. Until Jacksonville explains the benching or his snaps rebound, he is a bench option and a sell candidate if anyone still values him on name.

Betting and the Verdexed angle

Houston's outright win as an underdog is a reminder that a 1-4 start can hide a functional offense. Stroud entered London without an interception through five games, and the Texans have now scored 26 or more in back-to-back wins. Jacksonville's defense, on the other hand, gave up 426 yards in its second straight game in London, and the travel load of two overseas games in a row is the type of situational factor that is easy to underweight.

Verdexed's model weighs exactly these kinds of inputs: rest and travel, injuries to lead backs like Montgomery, and changes in a receiving corps such as Harrison's arrival. Both teams get very different rest situations next. Jacksonville goes straight into its bye, which the model factors into the Week 8 return, while Houston flies home and plays again a week after a transatlantic trip, with no break until Week 8. For the model's view, see Verdexed's NFL predictions page at /nfl/predictions, and check the weekly board at /blog/nfl-week-7-picks-2026.

What comes next

The two teams split on the bye question. The Jaguars are off in Week 7 and return Sunday, Nov. 1 against the Indianapolis Colts at EverBank Stadium, followed by a Thursday night trip to Baltimore. That means Lawrence, Tuten, Hunter, Washington and Thomas are unavailable in Week 7 lineups, so plan your fill-ins now.

Houston does not get its bye until Week 8. The Texans host the New York Giants on Sunday, Oct. 25, then rest before visiting the Los Angeles Chargers on Nov. 8. Montgomery's practice status this week is the key fantasy domino: if he stays out, Marks is a volume RB2 against the Giants. If he returns, expect a committee that caps both backs.

The takeaway: Pick up Jaylin Noel and, in IDP-plus-offense formats, Travis Hunter. Keep starting Collins and Marks in Week 7, treat Harrison as a stash, and move Brian Thomas Jr. to your bench until his snap count recovers, especially with Jacksonville on bye this week.