NHL Picks for October 1: UTA 63% Leads a 8-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
8 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-01. The firmest call is UTA at 63% over CHI; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 5. Season to date the model is 3-5 (37.5%) on graded picks, Brier 0.258.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at UTA | UTA | 63% | 66% | -2 | -218 | UTA -1.5 | 6.5 | UTA -218 |
| TBL at NYR | TBL | 61% | 57% | +4 | -148 | TBL -1.5 | 5.5 | TBL -148 |
| EDM at VAN | EDM | 60% | 66% | -6 | -218 | EDM -1.5 | 6.5 | EDM -218 |
| PHI at NJD | NJD | 59% | 60% | -2 | -170 | NJD -1.5 | 5.5 | NJD -162 |
| BUF at CBJ | CBJ | 53% | 49.6% | +3 | -108 | BUF -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| SEA at CGY | CGY | 52% | 50.4% | +2 | -112 | CGY -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
| MIN at NSH | NSH | 50.2% | 43% | +7 | +124 | MIN -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| FLA at SJS | SJS | 50.0% | 43% | +7 | +124 | FLA -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Where the model and the market disagree
TBL over NYR: we make it 61%, the market 57%. The edge comes from shot share (corsi) (+3.9 points), rest (+3.4 points).
CBJ over BUF: we make it 53%, the market 49.6%. The edge comes from motivation (+1.5 points), head to head (+1.2 points).
NSH over MIN: we make it 50.2%, the market 43%. The edge comes from high-danger chances (+1.1 points), shot share (corsi) (+1.0 points).
SJS over FLA: we make it 50.0%, the market 43%. The edge comes from rest (+3.6 points), shot margin (+1.2 points).
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:
EDM over VAN: we make it 60%, the market 66% (a 6-point gap).
Game by game
Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Mammoth: UTA 63%
The model has UTA at 63% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+5.6 points), rest (+3.4 points), power play (+1.6 points). The case against is head to head (-3.8 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.
| CHI | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -3.0 | - |
| Home / road | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Streak | L1 | - |
| Last five (last season) | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | - |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 wins |
CHI starter: Spencer Knight (projected). CHI out: Connor Bedard, Andrew Mangiapane. UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (likely). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux. Crew: Carter Sandlak has been friendly to UTA (-0.8 penalties a game versus its norm, 6-2-1 in 9 games). Crew: Carter Sandlak has been friendly to CHI (-0.8 penalties a game versus its norm, 5-8-2 in 15 games).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Nick Schmaltz | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Clayton Keller | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Clayton Keller | assists | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Anton Frondell | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Logan Cooley | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers: TBL 61%
The model has TBL at 61% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+3.9 points), rest (+3.4 points), expected goals (+1.1 points). The case against is power play (-2.1 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 5.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.
| TBL | NYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | - | -3.0 |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | - | L1 |
| Last five (last season) | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Rest days | - | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely). NYR starter: Igor Shesterkin. NYR out: Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora. Crew: Frederick L'Ecuyer has been friendly to NYR (-0.5 penalties a game versus its norm, 7-4-0 in 11 games).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | shots on goal | 3.9 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Nikita Kucherov | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Nikita Kucherov | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jake Guentzel | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mika Zibanejad | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Igor Shesterkin | saves | 26.1 | 23.5 or lower | 27.5 or higher |
| Igor Shesterkin | goals against | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks: EDM 60%
The model has EDM at 60% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: venue (+5.2 points), power play (+4.0 points), penalty kill (+2.3 points). The case against is shot margin (-1.8 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| EDM | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0-1 | 1-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.0 | +1.0 |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | O1 | W1 |
| Last five | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
EDM starter: Devon Levi. EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (likely). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. Crew: Michael Markovic has been tough on VAN (+0.7 penalties a game versus its norm, 1-4-0 in 5 games). Crew: Michael Markovic has been tough on EDM (+0.7 penalties a game versus its norm, 4-7-0 in 11 games).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | shots on goal | 4 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | assists | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jake DeBrusk | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | assists | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Brock Boeser | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils: NJD 59%
The model has NJD at 59% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: rest (+7.0 points), shot share (corsi) (+3.9 points), power play (+3.1 points). The case against is venue (-4.0 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 5.5.
| PHI | NJD | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -7.0 | - |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | L1 | - |
| Last five (last season) | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 1 | - |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
PHI starter: Joseph Woll. PHI out: Denver Barkey, Helge Grans, Nikita Grebenkin. NJD starter: Jake Allen. Crew: Wes McCauley has been friendly to PHI (-0.7 penalties a game versus its norm, 5-3-3 in 11 games).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Porter Martone | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matvei Michkov | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Trevor Zegras | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Nico Hischier | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets: CBJ 53%
The model has CBJ at 53% against a market price of 49.6%. What drives it: motivation (+1.5 points), head to head (+1.2 points), shot share (corsi) (+1.0 points). The case against is venue (-2.9 points). The line is BUF -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.
| BUF | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | - | - |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | - | - |
| Last five (last season) | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | - | - |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. BUF out: Topias Leinonen, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Olen Zellweger, Jason Zucker. CBJ starter: Jet Greaves (likely). Crew: Francis Charron has been tough on CBJ (+0.7 penalties a game versus its norm, 4-1-2 in 7 games). Crew: Jon McIsaac has been friendly to BUF (-0.1 penalties a game versus its norm, 6-2-0 in 8 games).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski | shots on goal | 4.5 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | saves | 26.6 | 24.5 or lower | 27.5 or higher |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | goals against | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Zach Benson | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Rasmus Dahlin | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Rasmus Dahlin | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Tage Thompson | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames: CGY 52%
The model has CGY at 52% against a market price of 50.4%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+3.1 points), penalty kill (+2.9 points), venue (+0.6 points). The case against is power play (-1.9 points). The line is CGY -1.5, total 5.5.
| SEA | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | - | - |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | - | - |
| Last five (last season) | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | - | - |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Mackie Samoskevich. CGY starter: Dustin Wolf. CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau. Crew: Peter MacDougall has been tough on SEA (+1.0 penalties a game versus its norm, 3-2-2 in 7 games). Crew: Eric Furlatt has been friendly to CGY (-0.4 penalties a game versus its norm, 8-3-1 in 12 games).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | saves | 27.1 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Dustin Wolf | goals against | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Bobby McMann | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matt Coronato | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jared McCann | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Vince Dunn | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators: NSH 50.2%
The model has NSH at 50.2% against a market price of 43%. What drives it: high-danger chances (+1.1 points), shot share (corsi) (+1.0 points), penalty kill (+0.8 points). The case against is motivation (-1.6 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 7-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.
| MIN | NSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | - | - |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | - | - |
| Last five (last season) | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | - | - |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber. NSH starter: Juuse Saros. Crew: Chris Rooney has been tough on MIN (+0.4 penalties a game versus its norm, 2-7-1 in 10 games).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Steven Stamkos | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Roman Josi | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Roman Josi | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks: SJS 50.0%
The model has SJS at 50.0% against a market price of 43%. What drives it: rest (+3.6 points), shot margin (+1.2 points), power play (+0.9 points). The case against is venue (-7.4 points). The line is FLA -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 7-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.
| FLA | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.0 | - |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | W1 | - |
| Last five (last season) | 1-0 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | - |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
FLA starter: Akira Schmid. FLA out: Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Macklin Celebrini | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Sam Reinhart | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cole Reinhardt | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Igor Chernyshov | shots on goal | 1.7 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 0.92 | 60% | -151 | -133 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 0.85 | 57% | -134 | -119 |
| Cole Reinhardt | FLA | 0.81 | 56% | -125 | -112 |
| Jake DeBrusk | VAN | 0.65 | 48% | +109 | +120 |
| Igor Chernyshov | SJS | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
| Macklin Celebrini | SJS | 0.61 | 46% | +119 | +130 |
| Brandon Hagel | TBL | 0.60 | 45% | +122 | +133 |
| Steven Stamkos | NSH | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
| Mavrik Bourque | NSH | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
| Filip Forsberg | NSH | 0.57 | 43% | +130 | +143 |
| Nick Schmaltz | UTA | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Porter Martone | PHI | 0.52 | 40% | +147 | +160 |
Yesterday's board
3 games, the model went 2-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK at COL | COL | 57% | 53% | 63% | COL 8-4 | Hit | COL -192 (hit) |
| NYI at TOR | NYI | 55% | 59% | 48% | TOR 2-1 | Miss | NYI +100 (miss) |
| PIT at PHI | PIT | 51% | 55% | 44% | PIT 7-0 | Hit | PIT +120 (hit) |
Where the model and the market split: PIT at PHI: the model took PIT (55%), the market PHI; the served pick was PIT and the pick hit. NYI at TOR: the model took NYI (59%), the market TOR; the served pick was NYI and the pick missed. COL over LAK: model 53%, market 63%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: COL 57% over LAK (hit), NYI 55% over TOR (miss), PIT 51% over PHI (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 2-1 on its 3 legs here.
Season to date through September 30: 3-5 (37.5%), Brier 0.257.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 3 of 8 (37.5%), Brier score 0.258. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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