NFL Week 4 Start/Sit for the Late Window, Sunday Night and Monday Night: Last-Minute Calls, Inactives and Pivots
By Verdexed Analytics
Published Sunday, Oct 4, 2026, shortly after 1:30 PM ET, with the early inactives in and the 1 PM games under way. Those lineups are locked, so this is about the six games you can still set: the 4:05 and 4:25 PM ET window, Sunday night, and Monday night. Every number here comes from the model's game-log projections and this week's board, rebuilt this morning with the injury report as of 12:09 PM ET. Projections are DraftKings scoring (full PPR, with the yardage bonuses); the position ranks quoted are from the weekly PPR board. Cleveland and Pittsburgh are on bye, and Indianapolis and Washington already played: the Colts won 30-13 in London this morning.
The six games you can still set
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Venue and weather | Line and total | Implied (away / home) | Model's winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at MIN | 4:05 PM Sun | U.S. Bank Stadium, dome | MIN -10, 38.5 | 14.2 / 24.2 | MIN 82% |
| KC at LV | 4:25 PM Sun | Allegiant Stadium, dome | KC -4.5, 47.5 | 26.0 / 21.5 | KC 59% |
| DEN at SF | 4:25 PM Sun | Levi's Stadium, 87 F, overcast, wind 4 mph | SF -3, 48.5 | 22.8 / 25.8 | SF 62% |
| LAC at SEA | 4:25 PM Sun | Lumen Field, 62 F, clear, wind 4 mph | SEA -7, 42.5 | 17.8 / 24.8 | SEA 76% |
| DET at CAR | 8:20 PM Sun | Bank of America Stadium, 65 F, overcast, wind 3 mph | DET -3.5, 51.5 | 27.5 / 24.0 | DET 63% |
| ATL at NO | 8:15 PM Mon | Caesars Superdome, dome | NO -1.5, 47.5 | 23.0 / 24.5 | ATL 50% |
Weather is a non-factor. Three of the six are domes, and the three outdoor games are calm (wind of 3 to 4 mph, no rain in any forecast). The only number that stands out is the heat at Levi's Stadium, 87 F at kickoff, which the model does not price and you should not either.
What changed since Thursday's guide
Justin Jefferson is out with what the Vikings called a minor ankle sprain, with a Week 5 return in play. Jordan Addison moves up to the No. 1 role (he went 5 for 90 and a touchdown on nine targets after Jefferson left last week), with T.J. Hockenson and Jauan Jennings next in line. Kyler Murray is in his second game back from the Week 1 concussion. Minnesota's implied total of 24.2 against an 0-3 Miami team losing by 16.7 points a game is still the friendliest script in the late window.
Brock Bowers carries no designation. The Raiders' pregame note says he is feeling under the weather ahead of the 4:25 kickoff, and the decision not to list him is the tell. In his debut last week, after the meniscus trim that cost him the first two games, he played 55 of 70 snaps and went 10 for 116 and a touchdown on 14 targets.
Seattle's backfield is still thin: Zach Charbonnet was designated to return from PUP on Thursday but remains ineligible this week, and Jadarian Price (chest) is out. Emanuel Wilson, who already leads the team in carries, and George Holani are the backs. Sam Darnold is in his second game back from the Week 1 soft-tissue injury and threw four touchdowns last week, two of them to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with two second-half interceptions.
San Francisco's receiver room is down to the bone. Brandon Aiyuk is out and Christian Kirk is on injured reserve. Mike Evans (rib/oblique, after a Budda Baker hit last week) got one limited practice on Friday and is a game-time decision; Kyle Shanahan said a pregame workout may decide it. If Evans sits, Deebo Samuel is the No. 1 by default, and he drew zero targets last week.
Ladd McConkey (foot) was limited Wednesday, did not practise Thursday and was seen limping, then was limited again Friday. The team view is that it is less serious than his earlier rib issue and that he keeps his usual role if active. Jalen Coker (quad, after an early exit at Cleveland) followed a Wednesday DNP with two limited sessions and is questionable for Sunday night. Noah Fant (abdominal) is questionable for Monday.
In Denver, J.K. Dobbins has 35 carries through three weeks while no other Bronco has more than 10; RJ Harvey has 11 targets against five carries; rookie Jonah Coleman went to injured reserve on Saturday. Jaylen Waddle took every rep in practice after being seen in a walking boot last Sunday, and Sean Payton said he is "doing fine." Marvin Mims is back from a two-game foot absence in a bit role.
In New Orleans, Travis Etienne is on injured reserve, which hands Alvin Kamara the lead role with Kendre Miller behind him. In Atlanta, Michael Penix's first game since Week 11 of last season was Thursday's 35-14 rout of Green Bay, so Monday is his second start back; he and Drake London connected for gains of 68 and 40 yards in the fourth quarter of that game.
Inactives: when they post and who to watch
Inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff: around 2:35 PM ET for Miami at Minnesota, 2:55 PM ET for the three 4:25 games, 6:50 PM ET for Sunday night and 6:45 PM ET on Monday. The rule for every questionable player is simple: the replacement has to kick off later than the player he replaces, or the swap is not available to you.
| If this player is inactive | You will know by | Pivots that kick off later |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans (SF, rib/oblique) | about 2:55 PM ET | Tetairoa McMillan or Jalen Coker (Sunday night), Jameson Williams (Sunday night), Devaughn Vele (Monday) |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC, foot) | about 2:55 PM ET | the same three, plus Juwan Johnson if the slot is a flex |
| Jalen Coker (CAR, quad) | about 6:50 PM ET | Devaughn Vele (Monday, 11.6 projected), Jahan Dotson (Monday, 6.5), or Juwan Johnson at tight end in a flex (11.3) |
| Noah Fant (NO, abdominal) | about 6:45 PM ET Monday | nothing kicks off later; bench him now, Juwan Johnson is the Saints tight end to own anyway |
Quarterbacks
| Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Pass yds / TD | Rush yds | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 28.7 | 359 / 2.2 | 23 | Must startthe QB1 of what is left | Eight touchdown passes in three games; Atlanta has allowed the second-most points to quarterbacks; the game-log projection sits far above his season number (18.6). The risk is the ball: six giveaways in three games. |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | @ LV | 25.0 | 297 / 1.9 | 29 | Must start | Kansas City's 26.0 implied total is the highest among the remaining games; this week's board has him QB1. |
| Bryce Young | CAR | vs DET (SNF) | 21.9 | 308 / 1.6 | 12 | Startthe streamer of the week | Detroit has allowed the fourth-most points to quarterbacks; the game-log projection (21.9) sits above his season number (15.5); QB9 this week against QB25 the rest of the way. |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | vs MIA | 21.3 | 238 / 1.6 | 33 | Startfloor over ceiling | The best game script left, and the rushing yards carry a floor; no Jefferson and a Miami defence that has allowed the fewest points to receivers cap the ceiling. |
| Brock Purdy | SF | vs DEN | 18.5 | 204 / 1.7 | 24 | Start | QB2 on the rest-of-season board; the week's number is modest because Denver has allowed the sixth-fewest points to receivers and his top two wideouts are out or questionable. Start him over anyone below him on this list. |
| Bo Nix | DEN | @ SF | 16.6 | 204 / 1.4 | 18 | QB2, superflex only | A road underdog with 22.8 implied; fine in two-quarterback formats. |
| Jared Goff | DET | @ CAR (SNF) | 16.1 | 231 / 1.6 | 0 | QB2 with a ceiling | The highest total left (51.5) and a 27.5 implied, but the model has Gibbs doing the scoring. |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | @ NO (Mon) | 15.4 | 230 / 1.2 | 6 | QB2 | Second start back; the London connection is the whole case; no rushing. |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | vs KC | 14.8 | 222 / 1.6 | 0 | Sit in 1QB | 21.5 implied at home as a 4.5-point underdog; Bowers gets the volume. |
| Malik Willis | MIA | @ MIN | 14.7 | 161 / 0.6 | 40 | Sitsuperflex floor only | Miami's 14.2 implied total is the lowest on the slate. He has not passed 220 yards or thrown for two scores in a game this season; the 40 rushing yards is the entire case. |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | vs LAC | 14.5 | 199 / 1.6 | 5 | Sit in 1QB | Seattle is a 7-point favourite, but the model's script is run-heavy and low-volume: Smith-Njigba gets the yards, Darnold does not get enough of them. |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | @ SEA | 13.5 | 173 / 1.1 | 25 | Sit | 17.8 implied for an 0-3 team on the road; the quarterback matchup (0.82) is in the bottom three of the entire week. |
Running backs
| Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Rush yds / TD | Rec / yds | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | @ LV | 28.2 | 115 / 0.80 | 4.7 / 40 | Must startthe RB1 of the slate | 76 touches in three games as the Chiefs' workhorse; a rushing and a receiving touchdown in the same game twice already; 64% to score on the anytime list. |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | @ CAR (SNF) | 25.5 | 98 / 0.93 | 3.9 / 31 | Must start | Six touchdowns in three games and 463 yards from scrimmage; the best running-back matchup on the whole week's board (1.20); the top of the anytime list at 71%. |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | @ NO (Mon) | 23.1 | 84 / 0.51 | 4.5 / 43 | Must start | 543 rushing yards through three games, including 194 against Green Bay, a yard short of his career high. |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | vs MIA | 19.8 | 92 / 0.66 | 2.9 / 21 | Startan RB1 this week | 20-plus touches in two straight games (45 touches, 197 yards) while the backups had four touches combined last week; RB13 this week against RB28 the rest of the way, which is the matchup talking. |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | vs DEN | 18.2 | 50 / 0.47 | 4.5 / 39 | Start | The receptions carry it, and with Aiyuk out and Evans in doubt the targets have fewer places to go. Do not overthink Denver's run defence. |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | vs KC | 17.5 | 68 / 0.23 | 4.0 / 27 | Start | 20-plus touches for the third time this season; the matchup multiplier (0.91) trims the number, it does not bench him. |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | vs DET (SNF) | 15.8 | 68 / 0.44 | 2.6 / 19 | Start as an RB2 | Dominated the touches last week; Carolina is implied for 24 points in the highest total left. |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 12.1 | 56 / 0.12 | 3.1 / 22 | Flex | The lead role is his with Etienne on injured reserve; the model's touchdown rate is low, so he is a volume flex rather than a ceiling play. |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | @ SF | 10.8 | 63 / 0.35 | 1.2 / 7 | Flex | The carries are his (35 through three weeks, nobody else above 10), but no rushing touchdown yet and no passing-down role. |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | @ SEA | 10.3 | 47 / 0.42 | 1.8 / 12 | Flex at best, sit if you have a choice | Seattle has allowed the third-fewest points to running backs, the Chargers are implied for 17.8, and the board had him as a sit before the matchup was even considered (RB24 this week, RB17 the rest of the way). |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | @ SF | 9.7 | 22 / 0.19 | 3.1 / 23 | SitPPR flex only | 11 targets to five carries; a passing-down back in a game Denver is not favoured to control. |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | vs LAC | 8.0 | 44 / 0.37 | 0.7 / 5 | Deep flex | Leads Seattle in carries (32) in what was a three-way split; with Price out and Charbonnet still on PUP it is a two-way split and the beat view is he could flirt with 20 carries. He averages 3.4 yards a carry. |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (ATL), Kendre Miller (NO), Kaelon Black (SF), Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright (MIA) | 4 to 7 | Sit | Backups and committee pieces without the volume. |
Wide receivers
| Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Rec / yds / TD | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | vs LAC | 23.7 | 6.5 / 93 / 1.06 | Must startthe WR1 of the slate | 30.4 points a game this season; 66% to score, third on the anytime list behind Gibbs and Henry. |
| Chris Olave | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 22.0 | 7.5 / 92 / 0.66 | Must start | 27 catches for 375 yards on 36 targets with 100-plus yards in two of three games; all four of Shough's touchdown passes last week went to tight ends, and the model expects that to even out. |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | vs DET (SNF) | 17.3 | 5.8 / 75 / 0.53 | Start if active, pivot ready | Questionable (quad). The model likes Carolina's passing game against Detroit (1.14 for receivers). You will know by about 6:50 PM ET, and the pivot has to come from Monday night: Vele or Dotson. |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | @ CAR (SNF) | 16.7 | 5.7 / 68 / 0.61 | Start | He and Gibbs have 11 touchdowns between them in three games. |
| Drake London | ATL | @ NO (Mon) | 16.6 | 5.4 / 77 / 0.40 | Start | 15 catches for 274 yards and no score through three; a career-high yardage game last time out, and the touchdowns are owed. |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | vs DET (SNF) | 16.3 | 5.7 / 82 / 0.26 | Start | The clear No. 1 in Carolina; the model has him for the most receiving yards in the game. |
| Rashee Rice | KC | @ LV | 13.9 | 5.1 / 61 / 0.35 | Start as a WR2 | Kansas City's 26.0 implied total; WR10 this week. |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | @ SF | 12.6 | 4.2 / 57 / 0.37 | Start as a WR2 or WR3 | A full week of practice after the walking boot; the Broncos' top target. |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 11.6 | 4.2 / 50 / 0.38 | Flex | Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most points to receivers; 15 catches on 22 targets for 172 yards and a score through three games; also the Coker pivot. |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | vs MIA | 11.0 | 3.7 / 49 / 0.36 | Flex | The No. 1 with Jefferson out and a 5-90-1 line after Jefferson left last week; the catch is a Miami defence that has allowed the fewest points to receivers. The targets are there; the yards are not guaranteed. |
| Malik Washington | MIA | @ MIN | 10.7 | 4.6 / 44 / 0.20 | Sit | The focal point of an offence implied for 14 points; a PPR floor and nothing else. |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | @ SEA | 10.4 | 3.8 / 47 / 0.30 | Sit unless desperate, even if active | Foot, a limp on Thursday, 17.8 implied; the board had him as a sit before the tag (WR32 this week against WR20 the rest of the way). |
| Tre Tucker | LV | vs KC | 10.4 | 3.7 / 48 / 0.26 | Sit | 11 of 15 for 189 and a score this season, but Bowers takes the targets. |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | @ SEA | 10.1 | 3.6 / 48 / 0.26 | Sit | Same 17.8 implied as McConkey without the target share. |
| Mike Evans | SF | vs DEN | 10.0 | 3.5 / 46 / 0.31 | Flex if active, pivot ready | A game-time decision after one limited practice; if he plays he is the only real wideout the 49ers have, and the model still does not love it against Denver (sixth-fewest points to receivers). |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | @ SF | 9.9 | 3.5 / 47 / 0.27 | Flex | Led Denver in receiving yards last week; WR37 this week. |
| Jameson Williams | DET | @ CAR (SNF) | 9.1 | 3.0 / 48 / 0.19 | Sitboom or bust only | 10 catches for 137 yards and no score on 17 targets while Gibbs and St. Brown score everything; the ceiling (25) is real, the floor is a quiet night. |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | @ LV | 9.0 | 3.4 / 40 / 0.21 | Sit in most lineups | Led Kansas City's receivers in snaps last week (43) but drew no red-zone targets; speed-only upside. |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF), Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed (SEA), Jauan Jennings (MIN), Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN), Chris Bell (MIA) | 4 to 8 | Sit | Jennings has one catch on three targets through two games despite an 80% snap share; Samuel's 80-yard score last week came on a hook-and-ladder with zero targets; the rest are bit roles. |
Tight ends
| Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Rec / yds / TD | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | LV | vs KC | 20.2 | 7.3 / 80 / 0.62 | Must start | 10 for 116 and a score on 14 targets in his debut; no designation; the "under the weather" note is one the Raiders chose not to turn into a tag. |
| Travis Kelce | KC | @ LV | 13.2 | 4.9 / 57 / 0.39 | Start | Kansas City's implied total and this week's TE matchup (1.16). |
| George Kittle | SF | vs DEN | 12.6 | 4.3 / 53 / 0.49 | Start | Led the 49ers in catches and yards last week; with Aiyuk out and Evans in doubt the target tree narrows to him and McCaffrey. |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | vs MIA | 11.6 | 4.9 / 45 / 0.36 | Start | Jefferson's targets go somewhere; the TE1 streamer of the window. |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 11.3 | 4.3 / 49 / 0.37 | Start | 15 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns on 19 targets; the Monday-night tight end. |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | @ CAR (SNF) | 10.6 | 4.0 / 45 / 0.34 | Start | Detroit at Carolina is the second-best tight-end matchup on the week's board (1.18). |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | @ NO (Mon) | 8.6 | 3.7 / 39 / 0.17 | Sit | Two catches for 20 yards on six targets through three games; the projection is mostly the Penix hope. |
| Darren Waller | CAR | vs DET (SNF) | 8.4 | 3.2 / 34 / 0.30 | Streamer | 10 for 112 and two scores on 13 targets through three games; led Carolina in catches last week. |
| Oronde Gadsden | LAC | @ SEA | 7.5 | 2.8 / 34 / 0.22 | Sit | The snaps are his with Kolar and Njoku out, but he went 0 for 3 on targets last week and Seattle has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends. |
| Michael Mayer (LV), AJ Barner (SEA), Greg Dulcich (MIA), Noah Fant (NO, questionable), Evan Engram (DEN) | 5 to 7 | Sit | Second tight ends and a questionable one with no later pivot. |
Defences
| Defence | Opp | Opp implied | Proj | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN D/ST | vs MIA | 14.2 | 9.0 | Must startthe best left: Malik Willis, no Achane, a 10-point line |
| SEA D/ST | vs LAC | 17.8 | 7.4 | Start |
| KC D/ST | @ LV | 21.5 | 6.6 | Playable |
| LV, SF, LAC, DEN, DET, CAR, NO, ATL, MIA | 21 to 28 | 5 to 6 | Sit |
Sunday night: Lions at Panthers
The model has Detroit at 63% against a market price of 64%, so there is no disagreement to trade on. What drives it is offence (+6.0 points of win probability), point margin (+3.8) and the quarterback gap (+3.3); the one thing in Carolina's favour is third downs, and it is small. The 51.5 total is the highest of the remaining games, and the projected stat lines say why: Gibbs 98 rushing yards and 3.9 catches, Young 308 passing yards, McMillan 82 receiving yards, Coker 75, St. Brown 68, Goff 231. Everything Detroit runs through Gibbs and St. Brown; Carolina's side is a three-receiver passing game with Hubbard underneath. Gibbs, St. Brown, McMillan and Hubbard are locked in. Coker is the decision, and the only one on this slate whose news lands after every other Sunday game has kicked off, which is why the pivot table above sends you to Monday night.
| Player | Stat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | rushing yards | 98 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | receptions | 3.9 |
| Bryce Young | passing yards | 308 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | receptions / yards | 5.7 / 82 |
| Jalen Coker | receptions / yards | 5.8 / 75 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | receptions / yards | 5.7 / 68 |
| Jared Goff | passing yards | 231 |
Monday night: Falcons at Saints
The model has Atlanta at 50.1% against a market price of 46% with New Orleans a 1.5-point home favourite, a four-point gap in Atlanta's favour. What drives it: the Saints without Etienne (+3.5 points), the head-to-head history (+1.7) and the venue (+1.7); the case against is New Orleans' offence (-3.3), which is the Shough-Olave-Johnson passing game that has produced eight touchdowns in three weeks. The crew matters a little here: Land Clark's crew has been tough on Atlanta, 1.2 more flags a game than the Falcons' norm, 2-3 in five games. For fantasy, the Saints' passing game is the play (Shough 359 yards projected, Olave 7.5 catches for 92, Johnson at tight end), Bijan and London are set-and-forget, Kamara is a volume flex, Vele is a flex and the Coker pivot, Pitts sits, and Fant sits because there is nothing to pivot to.
| Player | Stat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | passing yards / TD | 359 / 2.2 |
| Chris Olave | receptions / yards | 7.5 / 92 |
| Bijan Robinson | rushing yards / receptions | 84 / 4.5 |
| Drake London | receptions / yards | 5.4 / 77 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | passing yards | 230 |
| Alvin Kamara | rushing yards / receptions | 56 / 3.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | receptions / yards | 4.3 / 49 |
For the record: the model's early-window picks
These games are under way and nothing here can be acted on; the model is 28 of 48 (58.3%) on graded regular-season picks since Sep 1, with the live figure on the NFL accuracy page, and the Week 4 board with every pick is in the Week 4 picks piece.
| Game | Model's pick | Served probability |
|---|---|---|
| TEN at BAL | BAL | 81% |
| NE at BUF | BUF | 72% |
| NYJ at CHI | CHI | 66% |
| GB at TB | GB | 59% |
| LAR at PHI | LAR | 57% |
| DAL at HOU | HOU | 56% |
| JAX at CIN | JAX | 51% |
| ARI at NYG | ARI | 51% |
| IND at WSH (London, final 30-13) | IND | 58%, hit |
Last-minute rules worth repeating
A pivot has to kick off later than the player it replaces. For the 4:25 questionables (Evans, McConkey) that means Sunday night or Monday; for Coker it means Monday only; for Fant there is nothing, so decide now.
Do not bench a stud for a matchup. The matchup multiplier moves a projection by 10 to 20%, not 50%. Purdy and McCaffrey against Denver, Jeanty against Kansas City and Hubbard against Detroit all stay in.
The Jefferson absence goes to Addison and Hockenson, not Jennings. One catch on three targets through two games at an 80% snap share is the model's whole view of Jennings, and it has not changed.
Bowers plays. A team that wanted to protect itself would have listed him; the Raiders did not.
If you are torn between two players with similar projections, take the one on the team with the higher implied total: Kansas City (26.0), Detroit (27.5) and Minnesota (24.2) are the three highest left, Miami (14.2) and the Chargers (17.8) the two lowest.
How this piece is built
The projections are the model's game-log projections for today's slate (the same ones behind the DFS page), the ranks are from this week's rankings board, the designations are on the injury report and the game probabilities on the predictions page. Thursday's full guide, with the whole slate, the waiver wire and the buy and sell lists, is the Week 4 prep guide. Lines are quoted for the implied totals only. This is a fantasy guide, not betting advice.