Week 4 runs from Sunday Oct 4 to Monday Oct 5, 15 games. On bye: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers.
Everything below comes from the model's two boards: this week's rankings (each player's season-long expectation times the matchup: his team's implied total, the opponent's defence against the position, wind and the crew) and the rest-of-season board (the season board with this year's games folded in and today's injury report applied). Scoring is PPR. Projections are points this week; the range is the floor and ceiling the board carries.
The slate
| Game | Day | Line | Total | Implied (away / home) |
|---|
| IND at WSH | Sunday Oct 4 | WSH +4.5 | 47.5 | 26.0 / 21.5 |
| ARI at NYG | Sunday Oct 4 | NYG +2.5 | 44.5 | 23.5 / 21.0 |
| DAL at HOU | Sunday Oct 4 | HOU -3.0 | 48.5 | 22.8 / 25.8 |
| GB at TB | Sunday Oct 4 | TB +3.5 | 39.5 | 21.5 / 18.0 |
| JAX at CIN | Sunday Oct 4 | CIN -2.5 | 51.5 | 24.5 / 27.0 |
| LAR at PHI | Sunday Oct 4 | PHI +3.5 | 42.5 | 23.0 / 19.5 |
| NE at BUF | Sunday Oct 4 | BUF -7.0 | 49.5 | 21.2 / 28.2 |
| NYJ at CHI | Sunday Oct 4 | CHI -3.5 | 43.5 | 20.0 / 23.5 |
| TEN at BAL | Sunday Oct 4 | BAL -11.5 | 42.5 | 15.5 / 27.0 |
| MIA at MIN | Sunday Oct 4 | MIN -10.5 | 38.5 | 14.0 / 24.5 |
| DEN at SF | Sunday Oct 4 | SF -3.0 | 47.5 | 22.2 / 25.2 |
| KC at LV | Sunday Oct 4 | LV +4.5 | 47.5 | 26.0 / 21.5 |
| LAC at SEA | Sunday Oct 4 | SEA -7.0 | 42.5 | 17.8 / 24.8 |
| DET at CAR | Sunday Oct 4 | CAR +3.5 | 50.5 | 27.0 / 23.5 |
| ATL at NO | Monday Oct 5 | NO -2.5 | 47.5 | 22.5 / 25.0 |
Start them
Each position's top of the week, then the matchup calls: players ranked as starters this week and well above their rest-of-season standing. The last column is the player's rest-of-season rank at the position, so a wide gap is the matchup talking.
Quarterbacks
| # | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Matchup | ROS |
|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | @ LV | 23.5 | 12.9 to 37.6 | 1.18 | QB3 |
| 2 | Tyler Shough | NO | vs ATL | 23.3 | 12.8 to 37.3 | 1.18 | QB9 |
| 3 | Joe Burrow | CIN | vs JAX | 23.1 | 12.7 to 36.9 | 1.17 | QB7 |
| 4 | Josh Allen | BUF | vs NE | 22.9 | 12.6 to 36.7 | 1.06 | QB1 |
| 5 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | vs DAL | 21.6 | 11.9 to 34.5 | 1.20 | QB10 |
| 6 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | vs TEN | 21.4 | 11.8 to 34.3 | 1.14 | QB5 |
| 7 | Brock Purdy | SF | vs DEN | 20.5 | 11.3 to 32.8 | 1.03 | QB2 |
| 8 | Jared Goff | DET | @ CAR | 20.1 | 11.0 to 32.1 | 1.12 | QB6 |
| 9 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | @ CIN | 18.4 | 10.1 to 29.5 | 1.12 | QB14 |
| 10 | Dak Prescott | DAL | @ HOU | 18.2 | 10.0 to 29.2 | 0.97 | QB8 |
Matchup starts at quarterbacks: this week's rank against the rest-of-season rank, and why.
| Player | Team | Opp | This week | ROS | Proj | Why |
|---|
| Tyler Shough | NO | vs ATL | QB2 | QB9 | 23.3 | ATL has allowed the 2nd-most points to quarterbacks; NO is implied for 25.0 points; the game-log projection (28.9) sits above his season number (18.6). |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | @ CIN | QB9 | QB14 | 18.4 | The matchup multiplier is 1.12. |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | vs JAX | QB3 | QB7 | 23.1 | CIN is implied for 27.0 points; the game-log projection (23.7) sits above his season number (19.6). |
Running backs
| # | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Matchup | ROS |
|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | @ CAR | 29.4 | 16.2 to 47.1 | 1.20 | RB1 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | @ NO | 24.6 | 13.5 to 39.4 | 1.02 | RB2 |
| 3 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | @ LV | 24.1 | 13.3 to 38.6 | 1.17 | RB4 |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | BAL | vs TEN | 22.5 | 12.4 to 36.0 | 1.20 | RB3 |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | @ WSH | 21.1 | 11.6 to 33.8 | 1.13 | RB7 |
| 6 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | vs DEN | 20.9 | 11.5 to 33.5 | 1.06 | RB5 |
| 7 | James Cook | BUF | vs NE | 19.2 | 10.6 to 30.7 | 1.09 | RB6 |
| 8 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | vs NYJ | 18.5 | 10.2 to 29.5 | 1.12 | RB9 |
| 9 | Chase Brown | CIN | vs JAX | 16.7 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 1.12 | RB19 |
| 10 | Ashton Jeanty | LV | vs KC | 15.8 | 8.7 to 25.3 | 0.91 | RB8 |
| 11 | Jeremiyah Love | ARI | @ NYG | 15.6 | 8.6 to 24.9 | 1.12 | RB23 |
| 12 | Cam Skattebo | NYG | vs ARI | 15.6 | 8.6 to 24.9 | 0.96 | RB13 |
| 13 | Aaron Jones | MIN | vs MIA | 15.4 | 8.5 to 24.7 | 1.11 | RB28 |
| 14 | Kyren Williams | LAR | @ PHI | 15.3 | 8.4 to 24.5 | 0.97 | RB12 |
| 15 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | vs DET | 15.1 | 8.3 to 24.1 | 1.02 | RB16 |
Matchup starts at running backs: this week's rank against the rest-of-season rank, and why.
| Player | Team | Opp | This week | ROS | Proj | Why |
|---|
| Woody Marks | HOU | vs DAL | RB28 | RB51 | 11.3 | DAL has allowed the 5th-most points to running backs; HOU is implied for 25.8 points. |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WSH | vs IND | RB30 | RB49 | 9.7 | The matchup multiplier is 0.94. |
| David Montgomery | HOU | vs DAL | RB16 | RB32 | 14.8 | DAL has allowed the 5th-most points to running backs; HOU is implied for 25.8 points; the game-log projection (15.2) sits above his season number (12.3). |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | vs MIA | RB13 | RB28 | 15.4 | The game-log projection (19.2) sits above his season number (13.0). |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | @ CIN | RB19 | RB33 | 13.6 | CIN has allowed the 4th-most points to running backs. |
Wide receivers
| # | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Matchup | ROS |
|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | vs LAC | 25.6 | 14.1 to 40.9 | 1.09 | WR1 |
| 2 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | vs JAX | 23.1 | 12.7 to 37.0 | 1.17 | WR4 |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | @ CAR | 22.3 | 12.3 to 35.7 | 1.13 | WR2 |
| 4 | Chris Olave | NO | vs ATL | 22.3 | 12.3 to 35.7 | 1.14 | WR5 |
| 5 | Nico Collins | HOU | vs DAL | 21.5 | 11.8 to 34.4 | 1.20 | WR7 |
| 6 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | @ HOU | 19.7 | 10.8 to 31.5 | 0.99 | WR3 |
| 7 | Tee Higgins | CIN | vs JAX | 19.0 | 10.4 to 30.4 | 1.17 | WR11 |
| 8 | Zay Flowers (Questionable) | BAL | vs TEN | 18.0 | 9.9 to 28.7 | 1.14 | WR9 |
| 9 | Puka Nacua | LAR | @ PHI | 17.6 | 9.7 to 28.2 | 0.97 | WR6 |
| 10 | Rashee Rice | KC | @ LV | 17.5 | 9.6 to 28.1 | 1.09 | WR14 |
| 11 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | @ CHI | 17.3 | 9.5 to 27.7 | 0.93 | WR10 |
| 12 | Drake London | ATL | @ NO | 16.6 | 9.1 to 26.6 | 0.98 | WR8 |
| 13 | Jalen Coker (Questionable) | CAR | vs DET | 16.6 | 9.1 to 26.5 | 1.12 | WR26 |
| 14 | Parker Washington | JAX | @ CIN | 15.7 | 8.6 to 25.0 | 1.05 | WR18 |
| 15 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | vs DET | 15.6 | 8.6 to 25.0 | 1.12 | WR27 |
Matchup starts at receivers: this week's rank against the rest-of-season rank, and why.
| Player | Team | Opp | This week | ROS | Proj | Why |
|---|
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | vs NE | WR36 | WR64 | 11.8 | BUF is implied for 28.2 points. |
| Josh Downs | IND | @ WSH | WR17 | WR34 | 14.8 | WSH has allowed the 4th-most points to receivers; IND is implied for 26.0 points. |
| Keenan Allen (Questionable) | IND | @ WSH | WR20 | WR37 | 14.5 | WSH has allowed the 4th-most points to receivers; IND is implied for 26.0 points; listed Questionable. |
| DJ Moore | BUF | vs NE | WR25 | WR42 | 13.6 | BUF is implied for 28.2 points. |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | @ LV | WR31 | WR46 | 12.3 | KC is implied for 26.0 points. |
Tight ends
| # | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Matchup | ROS |
|---|
| 1 | Brock Bowers | LV | vs KC | 19.4 | 10.7 to 31.1 | 1.00 | TE2 |
| 2 | Trey McBride | ARI | @ NYG | 17.4 | 9.6 to 27.9 | 0.97 | TE1 |
| 3 | Travis Kelce | KC | @ LV | 16.4 | 9.0 to 26.2 | 1.16 | TE4 |
| 4 | George Kittle | SF | vs DEN | 16.1 | 8.9 to 25.8 | 1.10 | TE3 |
| 5 | Sam LaPorta | DET | @ CAR | 15.4 | 8.5 to 24.6 | 1.18 | TE6 |
| 6 | Tyler Warren | IND | @ WSH | 15.1 | 8.3 to 24.2 | 1.20 | TE7 |
| 7 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | vs NE | 13.5 | 7.4 to 21.6 | 1.08 | TE8 |
| 8 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | vs DAL | 13.5 | 7.4 to 21.6 | 1.10 | TE9 |
Matchup starts at tight ends: this week's rank against the rest-of-season rank, and why.
| Player | Team | Opp | This week | ROS | Proj | Why |
|---|
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | vs ARI | TE12 | TE22 | 10.9 | ARI has allowed the 8th-most points to tight ends; the game-log projection (13.9) sits above his season number (10.4). |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | @ TB | TE11 | TE18 | 11.1 | TB has allowed the most points to tight ends. |
Sit them, or at least think twice
Usual starters (rest-of-season top 12 at QB, 30 at RB, 42 at WR, 12 at TE) whose week ranks well below their standing, who carry an injury designation, or whose matchup sits at the bottom of the range. A sit here means the bench option with a better week, not a drop.
Quarterbacks
| Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Usual | This week | Why |
|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | vs LAR | 15.3 | QB11 | QB17 | No single factor (multiplier 0.88); the quarterbacks ranked above him have the better week. |
Running backs
| Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Usual | This week | Why |
|---|
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | @ SEA | 11.8 | RB17 | RB26 | SEA has allowed the 3rd-fewest points to running backs; LAC is implied for only 17.8 points; the game-log projection (10.2) sits below his season number (15.3). |
| Bucky Irving | TB | vs GB | 14.4 | RB11 | RB17 | TB is implied for only 18.0 points; the game-log projection (13.4) sits below his season number (16.8). |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | vs LAR | 11.5 | RB22 | RB27 | The game-log projection (9.8) sits below his season number (13.8). |
Wide receivers
| Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Usual | This week | Why |
|---|
| Jordan Watkins | SF | vs DEN | 3.1 | WR28 | WR117 | DEN has allowed the 6th-fewest points to receivers; the game-log projection (2.2) sits below his season number (14.8). |
| Jeshaun Jones | MIN | vs MIA | 3.7 | WR33 | WR107 | MIA has allowed the fewest points to receivers; the game-log projection (1.1) sits below his season number (13.9). |
| Tory Horton | SEA | vs LAC | 4.8 | WR36 | WR97 | The game-log projection (2.4) sits below his season number (13.0). |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | @ SF | 5.5 | WR39 | WR79 | The game-log projection (3.9) sits below his season number (12.7). |
| Ladd McConkey (Questionable) | LAC | @ SEA | 11.8 | WR20 | WR35 | LAC is implied for only 17.8 points; the game-log projection (9.9) sits below his season number (14.8); listed Questionable. |
| Zay Flowers (Questionable) | BAL | vs TEN | 18.0 | WR9 | WR8 | Listed Questionable. |
Tight ends
| Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Usual | This week | Why |
|---|
| Thomas Fidone II | NYG | vs ARI | 4.4 | TE10 | TE41 | No single factor (multiplier 0.97); the tight ends ranked above him have the better week. |
| Jared Wiley | KC | @ LV | 6.6 | TE12 | TE26 | No single factor (multiplier 1.16); the tight ends ranked above him have the better week. |
Injury report
Every designation on a fantasy-relevant player as of 2026-10-02 22:55 UTC, with the next man up on the team's depth chart and his projection this week. Thursday designations move through Friday's final report; the live list is on the NFL injury report.
Out
| Player | Pos | Team | Status | ROS | Next man up | Note |
|---|
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | Out | RB10 | Braelon Allen (7.5 proj) | Hall is considered week-to-week and hasn't practiced since making an early exit from last week's loss at Detroit. |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | SF | Out | WR16 | - | - |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | Out | WR17 | Darius Cooper (3.4 proj) | Smith gutted through a hamstring injury during the Eagles' Week 3 loss at Chicago, playing all 50 offensive snaps en route to six catches... |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | Out | QB4 | - | - |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | SEA | Out | RB21 | - | With Charbonnet still on the reserve/PUP list after being designated to return to practice Thursday, he remains ineligible for Week 4. |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WSH | Out | QB12 | - | Daniels was able to practice on a limited basis this week -- "a huge step," Quinn said also via Jhabvala -- but the Commanders will... |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | Out | QB13 | - | Earlier Monday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reported than an MRI on Mayfield's dislocated right thumb ruled out a fracture as well as any... |
| Rachaad White | RB | WSH | Out | RB30 | Kaytron Allen | White missed practice all week and won't suit up in London. |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | Out | TE19 | Zach Ertz (4.0 proj) | With Goedert set to miss another game while recovering from the sprained MCL in his right knee and Devonta Smith set to miss with a... |
| Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | Out | RB53 | Emanuel Wilson (4.5 proj) | Price opened the week as limited Wednesday due to his existing chest injury and then didn't practice at all Thursday. |
| Caleb Douglas | WR | MIA | Out | WR147 | Ryan Miller (3.1 proj) | Douglas will remain sidelined for a second straight contest, allowing fellow rookie Chris Bell to handle an increased role on offense... |
| A.J. Brown | WR | NE | Injured Reserve | WR188 | Jeremiah Webb | Kyles noted that Brown was wearing cleats, which could hint that he was able to do some on-field exercises. |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | Injured Reserve | WR189 | - | Ian Rapoport of NFL Network had previously relayed last week that Pierce would avoid another procedure after aggravating his surgically... |
| Travis Etienne | RB | NO | Injured Reserve | RB110 | Ty Chandler | Etienne dealt with a hamstring injury during Week 3 prep and then aggravated the issue this past Sunday against the Raiders, leading to... |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR | NO | Injured Reserve | WR191 | Mason Tipton | At the time his most recent hamstring injury flared up in mid-August, Tyson was given a prognosis of roughly two months, which he's still... |
| Jordan Mason | RB | MIN | IR | RB113 | - | - |
| Jonathon Brooks | RB | CAR | IR | RB119 | - | - |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | SF | IR | WR211 | - | - |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | TB | Injured Reserve | WR214 | - | The move to IR officially rules McMillan out for the Buccaneers' next four games, but the wideout is projected to miss around 6-to-8 weeks... |
| Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN | Injured Reserve | RB124 | - | Coleman has been diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain and was unable to practice all week. |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | Injured Reserve | RB127 | - | Achane's move to injured reserve was merely a formality after head coach Jeff Hafley confirmed earlier Monday that the running back would... |
| Jayden Reed | WR | GB | Injured Reserve | WR215 | - | Reed remains without a clear timeline for a return after sustaining a neck injury that resulted in a brief stay in the hospital in the... |
| Jaxson Dart | QB | NYG | Injured Reserve | QB89 | - | Dart's ACL and PCL were apparently spared, but the quarterback remains done for the 2026 regular season after he was injured in the first... |
Questionable
| Player | Pos | Team | Status | ROS | Next man up | Note |
|---|
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | Questionable | WR9 | LaJohntay Wester (5.5 proj) | After upgrading to full participation Thursday, Flowers took a step back Friday, but it's possible the Ravens just rested him some... |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | Questionable | WR20 | Derius Davis (3.6 proj) | McConkey missed practice Thursday but returned for Friday's light session, giving him a chance to suit up versus Seattle. |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | Questionable | WR26 | David Moore | After returning to practice activity late in the week, the Panthers wide receiver at least appears to have a chance to suit up Sunday, but... |
| Keenan Allen | WR | IND | Questionable | WR37 | Deion Burks | After logging a limited practice Thursday, Allen moved the wrong direction Friday with a DNP tag and now carries a questionable designation... |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | Questionable | WR43 | Jacob Cowing (3.1 proj) | Officially, Evans is listed as questionable for Week 4 after failing to practice Wednesday and Thursday, per Cam Inman of The San Jose... |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WSH | Questionable | WR48 | Dyami Brown | McLaurin appears to have injured his hamstring in Friday's practice, which is rarely a good sign for a player's availability Sunday. |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | Questionable | TE31 | Jeremy Ruckert (3.6 proj) | After logging limited practices earlier in the week, Sadiq now carries a questionable tag into Week 4. |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | TEN | Questionable | RB58 | Nicholas Singleton | Despite Spears upgrading to a full practice Friday, the Titans aren't yet ready to clear him for Sunday's contest. |
Matchups to target and avoid
The matchup multiplier by team and position, best and worst on the slate (1.00 is a neutral week; the range is 0.80 to 1.20). It folds in the team's implied total, the opponent's defence against the position over the last season, the wind and the crew.
| Position | Target | Avoid |
|---|
| Quarterbacks | HOU vs DAL (1.20), KC @ LV (1.18), NO vs ATL (1.18) | MIA @ MIN (0.80), TB vs GB (0.82), LAC @ SEA (0.82) |
| Running backs | DET @ CAR (1.20), BAL vs TEN (1.20), HOU vs DAL (1.20) | LAC @ SEA (0.80), MIA @ MIN (0.81), TEN @ BAL (0.82) |
| Wide receivers | HOU vs DAL (1.20), IND @ WSH (1.20), CIN vs JAX (1.17) | LAC @ SEA (0.83), MIA @ MIN (0.86), TEN @ BAL (0.86) |
| Tight ends | IND @ WSH (1.20), CIN vs JAX (1.20), DET @ CAR (1.18) | TB vs GB (0.80), MIA @ MIN (0.81), TEN @ BAL (0.81) |
Implied team totals, from the lines above: BUF 28.2 (vs NE), CIN 27.0 (vs JAX), BAL 27.0 (vs TEN), DET 27.0 (@ CAR), IND 26.0 (@ WSH) at the top; MIA 14.0 (@ MIN), TEN 15.5 (@ BAL), LAC 17.8 (@ SEA), TB 18.0 (vs GB), PHI 19.5 (vs LAR) at the bottom.
Waiver wire
Undrafted means no market ADP, or an ADP past 150: on the wire in most leagues. Adds rank as starters this week; stashes are players the rest-of-season board rates, and the backs behind flagged starters.
Add and start
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Proj | This week | ROS | Why |
|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | vs DAL | 21.6 | QB5 | QB10 | DAL has allowed the 3rd-most points to quarterbacks; HOU is implied for 25.8 points; the game-log projection (23.1) sits above his season number (17.7). |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | @ WSH | 17.0 | QB11 | QB31 | WSH has allowed the 8th-most points to quarterbacks; IND is implied for 26.0 points; the game-log projection (17.4) sits above his season number (14.3). |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | @ NYG | 16.9 | QB12 | QB20 | The game-log projection (19.1) sits above his season number (15.3). |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | vs DAL | 13.5 | TE8 | TE9 | HOU is implied for 25.8 points. |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | vs ATL | 12.5 | TE9 | TE11 | NO is implied for 25.0 points. |
| Ben VanSumeren | RB | KC | @ LV | 12.1 | RB24 | RB26 | KC is implied for 26.0 points. |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | HOU | vs DAL | 11.7 | WR37 | WR66 | DAL has allowed the most points to receivers; HOU is implied for 25.8 points. |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | @ CIN | 11.2 | TE10 | TE24 | CIN has allowed the 4th-most points to tight ends. |
Streaming defences
Priced from the line: the opponent's implied points, home field and how heavily the defence's own team is favoured.
| Defence | Opp | Opp implied | Proj |
|---|
| MIN D/ST | vs MIA | 14.0 | 9.7 |
| BAL D/ST | vs TEN | 15.5 | 9.4 |
| SEA D/ST | vs LAC | 17.8 | 8.5 |
| GB D/ST | @ TB | 18.0 | 7.8 |
| CHI D/ST | vs NYJ | 20.0 | 7.7 |
| BUF D/ST | vs NE | 21.2 | 7.6 |
Stash
| Player | Pos | Team | ROS | ROS pts/g | Why |
|---|
| Austin Ekeler | RB | WSH | RB20 | 15.0 | The rest-of-season board has him RB20, 15.0 a game from here, and nobody drafted him. |
| Thomas Fidone II | TE | NYG | TE10 | 13.8 | The rest-of-season board has him TE10, 13.8 a game from here, and nobody drafted him. |
| Jordan Watkins | WR | SF | WR28 | 14.8 | The rest-of-season board has him WR28, 14.8 a game from here, and nobody drafted him. |
| Jeshaun Jones | WR | MIN | WR33 | 13.9 | The rest-of-season board has him WR33, 13.9 a game from here, and nobody drafted him. |
| Tory Horton | WR | SEA | WR36 | 13.0 | The rest-of-season board has him WR36, 13.0 a game from here, and nobody drafted him. |
| Jared Wiley | TE | KC | TE12 | 11.8 | The rest-of-season board has him TE12, 11.8 a game from here, and nobody drafted him. |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | DEN | WR39 | 12.7 | The rest-of-season board has him WR39, 12.7 a game from here, and nobody drafted him. |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | HOU | TE13 | 11.1 | The rest-of-season board has him TE13, 11.1 a game from here, and nobody drafted him. |
Buy and sell
Production so far against the board's projection from here, for rostered players. A buy has produced less than the board expects, so his price is set by box scores the model does not think will hold; a sell is the reverse. Games is this season's sample.
Buy
| Player | Pos | Team | Season pts/g | Games | ROS pts/g | ROS | Gap |
|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | 5.9 | 3 | 14.7 | WR21 | +8.8 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 3.1 | 3 | 11.1 | TE15 | +7.9 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 7.9 | 3 | 15.5 | WR22 | +7.6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | 8.3 | 2 | 14.8 | RB15 | +6.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 6.9 | 2 | 13.3 | RB27 | +6.3 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 9.9 | 3 | 15.3 | RB17 | +5.4 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | 6.7 | 3 | 12.1 | WR46 | +5.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 8.6 | 3 | 13.8 | RB22 | +5.2 |
Sell
| Player | Pos | Team | Season pts/g | Games | ROS pts/g | ROS | Gap |
|---|
| Davante Adams | WR | LAR | 22.3 | 3 | 15.4 | WR15 | -6.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 30.4 | 3 | 23.8 | WR1 | -6.6 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 25.3 | 3 | 19.7 | RB4 | -5.6 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 25.2 | 3 | 19.7 | WR5 | -5.5 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 20.5 | 3 | 15.5 | WR19 | -5.0 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 22.9 | 3 | 18.6 | QB9 | -4.3 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 25.8 | 3 | 21.7 | QB1 | -4.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 29.3 | 3 | 25.4 | RB1 | -3.9 |
How this guide is built
The weekly board is each player's season-long expectation times this week's matchup, with the DFS game-log projection folded in as a recency term; the rest-of-season board is the season board with this year's games blended in and the injury feed applied. Both are rebuilt every morning and live on the NFL rankings page; the designations are on the injury report and the model's game picks on the predictions page. Lines are quoted for the implied totals only. This is a fantasy guide, not betting advice.
