Garrett Crochet Is Tracking Toward a Playoff Return and the Red Sox Are Planning to Use Him in Relief
By Verdexed MLB Desk
Garrett Crochet threw a bullpen session for the first time since the lat tightness that shut him down in May, and the Red Sox are now tracking him toward a return in the first round of the playoffs. Boston does not expect him to make starts. The plan being described publicly is a relief role, with a version of a simulated game scheduled for the final week of the regular season.
Crochet has not pitched in a game since May. He was originally shut down after a bullpen session produced what was ultimately diagnosed as left lat tightness, and the recovery has taken the better part of four months.
What is confirmed and what is speculative
Confirmed: Crochet threw a bullpen, a simulated game is planned for late September, and the organization has publicly framed a relief role as the realistic outcome. Not confirmed: that he pitches in the postseason at all. A pitcher who has not faced live hitters in four months, working back from a lat injury, is one setback away from the entire plan collapsing.
Lat strains in pitchers are among the least predictable soft-tissue injuries. The muscle is directly involved in the deceleration phase of the throwing motion, recurrence rates are meaningful, and the timeline from bullpen to game action varies widely. Boston's caution in describing this as a relief role rather than a rotation return reflects that reality rather than a lack of ambition.
The Red Sox situation
Boston sits three games behind the Yankees for the first American League wild card. That is a deficit that can close in three weeks but one that also leaves the Red Sox likely to open the postseason on the road in a short series if they get there at all.
A short series is exactly the format in which a converted starter working out of the bullpen has outsized value. A left-hander with front-line stuff pitching two or three innings in relief, without the need to turn a lineup over three times, is one of the highest-leverage weapons available in October. Teams have won series on that specific configuration.
The counterargument is that a pitcher who has not competed in four months is being asked to do it for the first time in the highest-pressure environment of the season. That is a real risk, and it is why the simulated game in the final week is the most important date on Boston's calendar.
Fantasy fallout
For redraft leagues, this is close to irrelevant. Fantasy baseball playoffs in most formats conclude before or during the final week of the regular season, and a pitcher throwing a simulated game does not accumulate statistics. Crochet should already have been dropped in any league that is not a dynasty format.
For dynasty and keeper leagues, the read is more nuanced and more actionable. A front-line starter who missed most of a season with a lat injury and returns healthy is one of the most consistently underpriced assets in dynasty trading. The market discounts the missed season heavily and does not adjust upward until the following spring.
If you can acquire Crochet now from a manager who has spent four months watching him not pitch, the price will be lower than at any point between now and next Opening Day. The health risk is genuine, and the discount typically exceeds it.
The Verdexed model take
Postseason futures are where this news matters most, and the effect is subtler than it looks.
Boston's series price in a wild card round is built on a projected pitching staff. Adding a left-hander of Crochet's caliber to a bullpen for a three-game series is worth more than adding him to a rotation for a seven-game series, because short series concentrate leverage into fewer innings and a dominant reliever can appear in a majority of the games.
The problem is that the market cannot price a return that has not been confirmed. That creates a specific opportunity: Boston's series and pennant prices should be treated as underpriced right now if you believe the simulated game goes well, and the number will move sharply the moment he is announced as postseason-eligible.
The disciplined version of that position is to wait for the simulated game rather than to bet the report. The cost of waiting is a shorter price. The cost of not waiting is the entire stake if he has a setback.
The broader Red Sox picture
Boston's path is the second wild card at minimum, and the three-game gap behind New York is the more realistic target than any division title. The Red Sox have other returning arms and the roster to win a short series, but the wild card round is the harshest format in baseball for a team without a clear pitching advantage.
Crochet returning in any capacity is the single largest swing factor in Boston's October, larger than any hitter who could get healthy in the same window.
The precedent for converted starters in October
The template is well established. A starting pitcher who cannot be stretched out in time for the postseason is moved to the bullpen, where the reduced innings requirement lets him throw at maximum effort for shorter stretches. Velocity typically ticks up in that role, and a pitcher's best two pitches become his only two pitches, which is an advantage rather than a limitation over one or two innings.
For a left-hander with front-line stuff, that conversion tends to produce the most dominant version of the pitcher, not a diminished one. The catch is that it requires enough game reps to know the arm responds, and Crochet's plan gives him exactly one simulated outing to establish that.
What is next
Two dates matter. The simulated game in the final week of the regular season is the gate: if he comes through it without a setback, the relief plan becomes real. The postseason roster deadline is the confirmation. Until both are cleared, treat this as a promising development rather than a change in Boston's projected strength, and price accordingly.