Cameron Boozer Is the Rookie of the Year Favorite Entering Opening Week and AJ Dybantsa Is Fourth

Cameron Boozer enters opening week as the Rookie of the Year favorite. The Grizzlies forward is +300 at BetMGM, the shortest price on the board, according to Sportsbook Review's best-odds table updated Oct. 13. Darryn Peterson is next at +350 at FanDuel, Caleb Wilson is +360 at DraftKings, and No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa is the longest of the four at +425 at DraftKings.

The order is the story. The top pick usually opens as the favorite and stays there into the season. This year the market has Dybantsa fourth among the class's headliners after a summer and preseason in which his three-point shot has lagged, while Wilson's price has tightened enough that the race now looks like a four-way split rather than a three-man contest.

The board heading into opening night

Prices vary across books and have moved all offseason. Covers' tracker, which uses prediction-market probabilities, also showed Boozer on top as of Oct. 12, with Dybantsa and Wilson close behind. Every one of the four is priced shorter than 5-1, which tells you the market sees no clear separation yet.

Why Boozer is on top

Boozer's case is role plus floor. He was projected to start at power forward for Memphis entering camp, with Zach Edey back at center, and the Grizzlies are entering a post-Ja Morant era in which the offense needs a new focal point. Boozer's preseason debut in Atlanta on Oct. 5 was efficient and complete: 11 points, five rebounds, four assists and two steals in 18 minutes in a 132-123 win. Memphis beat Chicago 104-100 on Oct. 9 in another game in which Boozer drew strong reviews.

The profile that made him the safest prospect at Duke is the same one Rookie of the Year voters reward: steady counting stats from the opening week, good efficiency, and a starting job on a team that needs him. The risk is ceiling, not floor. Memphis is more competitive than Washington, which can cap usage, and voters tend to reward the rookie who posts the biggest raw numbers.

Peterson, Wilson and Dybantsa

Darryn Peterson has had the most uneven preseason of the group. He scored 3 points on 1-for-5 shooting in his Oct. 4 debut, then led Utah with 23 points against Denver on Oct. 6 and added 14 points on 5-for-10 shooting with five assists in 24 minutes in a 119-109 win over San Antonio on Oct. 12. He is penciled in as the Jazz's starting shooting guard, and his price reflects the belief that a guard on a rebuilding team will get the shots to post big scoring numbers.

Caleb Wilson has the most interesting price. He scored 15 points on 6-for-16 shooting (0-for-4 from three) in his debut against Phoenix and had a quieter 10 points, four rebounds and three assists against a Milwaukee team that rested its starters. The shooting has not arrived, but the opportunity has: Matas Buzelis sprained his ankle earlier in October, and Wilson has been listed at power forward in projected Bulls starting fives. Chicago opens Oct. 21 at Toronto.

AJ Dybantsa has been productive without being dominant. He had 11 points and four steals in 23 minutes in Washington's 111-109 preseason win over the Knicks on Oct. 8, 14 points and seven rebounds in an overtime win over Detroit on Oct. 10, and 14 points on 5-for-12 shooting in 25 minutes against Brooklyn on Oct. 12. Coach Brian Keefe singled out his defense in the opener. The concern is shot allocation: Washington added Trae Young and Anthony Davis, and Dybantsa has not yet shown a reliable three-pointer, which limits how much offense runs through him.

The betting angle

Rookie of the Year is a volume award. Voters have historically leaned toward the rookie who scores the most on a team that hands him the ball, and availability matters because a missed month can sink a candidacy. That framework is why this board is so tight: each of the four has a starting role, and none has a clear usage edge.

The cases sort out like this. Boozer is the favorite because he is the least likely to fall out of the race, but +300 leaves little room for error. Peterson's price assumes the scoring nights against Denver are the norm and the debut was the outlier. Wilson's price has room to shorten if Buzelis misses time and the shot starts falling. Dybantsa is the most interesting long position on the board: he is the only one of the four priced longer than 4-1, he carries the No. 1 pick's natural pull with voters, and his preseason concerns are about the three-point shot, which can change quickly once regular-season reps arrive.

Shop prices before betting. The spread between books on this market is wide enough that the same player can be a materially different bet depending on where you place it, and lines will move after the first week of real games. Verdexed's game-by-game model views for opening week live at /nba/predictions.

Fantasy fallout

The Rookie of the Year race and fantasy rookie rankings are closely related, because both reward minutes and usage. In category leagues, Boozer remains the safest rookie to roster for his rebounds, field goal percentage and defensive stats. In points leagues, Dybantsa and Peterson carry the highest scoring ceilings, but both come with efficiency risk. Wilson is the value pick of the group in most drafts, especially if you can confirm the Bulls' starting lineup before your draft.

Do not overpay for any of them in redraft. Rookies as a class tend to start slowly, and the right move is to take the one whose skills fit your build at a fair price, then add aggressively off waivers if a second rookie's role grows in November.

What's next

Opening week starts the clock. Memphis, Utah, Chicago and Washington all play in the first days of the season, and the first two weeks of minutes and shot attempts will tell bettors more than the entire preseason did. Watch the starting lineups, the minutes totals and, for Dybantsa and Wilson, the three-point attempts.

For now the market sees a four-way race with Boozer slightly ahead, and the next significant move will come from whichever rookie strings together big scoring nights first.