MLB Player Props: Model Projections & Lines
The featured MLB player props for the next slate: the model's projection for each stat, the line at which the over and under split evenly and its lean, plus a search for any player's full over/under projections from rolling game logs. Projections refresh each morning with the DFS run.
Featured board for Tuesday, October 27: 20 players, 30 lines.
Featured props, model lines at the even split
| Player | Stat | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William ContrerasC | Hits | 1.5 | 49% | Even |
| William ContrerasC | Home runs | 0 | 69% | Over |
| Yandy DíazDH | Hits | 1 | 56% | Over |
| Yandy DíazDH | Home runs | 0.5 | 33% | Under |
| David Hamilton3B | Hits | 1 | 49% | Even |
| David Hamilton3B | Home runs | 0 | 65% | Over |
| Jake Bauers1B | Hits | 1 | 47% | Even |
| Jake Bauers1B | Home runs | 0 | 71% | Over |
| Chandler SimpsonLF | Hits | 1 | 56% | Over |
| Chandler SimpsonLF | Runs | 0.5 | 52% | Even |
| Junior Caminero3B | Hits | 1 | 55% | Even |
| Junior Caminero3B | Home runs | 0 | 73% | Over |
| Jackson ChourioLF | Hits | 1 | 53% | Even |
| Jackson ChourioLF | Home runs | 0 | 72% | Over |
| Brice Turang2B | Hits | 1 | 44% | Under |
| Brice Turang2B | RBIs | 0.5 | 40% | Under |
| Jonathan Aranda1B | Hits | 1.5 | 49% | Even |
| Jonathan Aranda1B | RBIs | 0.5 | 55% | Over |
| Sal FrelickRF | Hits | 1 | 36% | Under |
| Sal FrelickRF | Home runs | 0 | 65% | Over |
| Cooper PrattSS | Hits | 1 | 52% | Even |
| Cooper PrattSS | Runs | 0.5 | 52% | Even |
| Liam HicksC | Hits | 1 | 42% | Under |
| Liam HicksC | Home runs | 0 | 69% | Over |
| Garrett MitchellCF | Hits | 0.5 | 62% | Over |
| Garrett MitchellCF | Home runs | 0.5 | 30% | Under |
| Christian YelichDH | Hits | 1 | 40% | Under |
| Christian YelichDH | RBIs | 0.5 | 53% | Even |
| Bo NaylorC | Hits | 0.5 | 60% | Over |
| Bo NaylorC | Home runs | 0.5 | 30% | Under |
How to read this page
- The line shown is the model's own, set where the over and under are near coin flips. A book line well below it makes the over interesting; well above it, the under.
- Over and under percentages come from the spread of the player's recent outcomes around the projection, so high-variance players show wider splits than steady ones.
- Props are graded on the box score. The Model Card carries the day's best five and their record.