MLB Projected Standings & Title Odds

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times, playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities, to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-09-20.

#	Team	Now	Proj. wins	Best-record odds
1	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	97-58	100.9(97–104)	82.1%
2	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	95-60	98.8(95–102)	12.3%
3	Tampa Bay RaysTB	94-60	98.0(94–102)	5.6%
4	Atlanta BravesATL	91-64	94.6(91–98)	0.0%
5	New York YankeesNYY	89-65	93.3(89–97)	0.0%
6	San Diego PadresSD	86-69	89.7(86–93)	0.0%
7	Chicago CubsCHC	86-69	89.7(86–93)	0.0%
8	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	85-70	88.5(85–92)	0.0%
9	Boston Red SoxBOS	84-71	87.4(84–91)	0.0%
10	Arizona DiamondbacksAZ	81-74	84.4(81–88)	0.0%
11	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	80-75	83.8(80–87)	0.0%
12	Chicago White SoxCWS	79-76	82.7(79–86)	0.0%
13	Texas RangersTEX	78-77	81.7(78–85)	0.0%
14	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	78-77	81.4(78–85)	0.0%
15	Houston AstrosHOU	77-78	80.6(77–84)	0.0%
16	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	76-79	79.5(76–83)	0.0%
17	Miami MarlinsMIA	76-79	79.4(76–83)	0.0%
18	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	75-80	78.3(75–82)	0.0%
19	Baltimore OriolesBAL	75-80	78.3(75–82)	0.0%
20	Detroit TigersDET	73-82	76.7(73–80)	0.0%
21	Washington NationalsWSH	73-82	76.4(73–80)	0.0%
22	Seattle MarinersSEA	72-83	75.9(72–79)	0.0%
23	Minnesota TwinsMIN	72-83	75.4(72–79)	0.0%
24	Cincinnati RedsCIN	72-83	75.1(72–79)	0.0%
25	New York MetsNYM	71-84	74.2(71–78)	0.0%
26	Kansas City RoyalsKC	67-88	70.5(67–74)	0.0%
27	San Francisco GiantsSF	64-91	67.4(64–71)	0.0%
28	AthleticsATH	61-94	64.3(61–68)	0.0%
29	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	60-95	63.2(60–67)	0.0%
30	Colorado RockiesCOL	57-98	60.1(57–64)	0.0%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record, a clean, bias-free read on the title race.

MLB power rankings Standings