MLB Projected Standings & Title Odds

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times— playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities — to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-08-02.

#	Team	Now	Proj. wins	Best-record odds
1	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	69-41	97.2(83–112)	51.1%
2	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	69-42	95.9(82–109)	34.7%
3	Atlanta BravesATL	66-45	92.1(80–104)	7.7%
4	Tampa Bay RaysTB	65-45	90.8(77–103)	3.3%
5	Chicago CubsCHC	63-48	89.4(75–103)	1.8%
6	New York YankeesNYY	62-49	88.6(77–102)	0.9%
7	Boston Red SoxBOS	59-51	86.4(73–100)	0.2%
8	Arizona DiamondbacksAZ	59-52	85.6(72–98)	0.1%
9	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	58-53	84.7(70–99)	0.1%
10	San Diego PadresSD	57-54	84.3(71–99)	0.1%
11	Chicago White SoxCWS	58-52	84.0(70–96)	0.0%
12	Houston AstrosHOU	57-55	82.7(69–96)	0.0%
13	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	56-56	82.2(69–94)	0.0%
14	Miami MarlinsMIA	57-55	81.9(67–95)	0.0%
15	Texas RangersTEX	55-56	81.1(67–94)	0.0%
16	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	56-56	80.3(65–95)	0.0%
17	Minnesota TwinsMIN	56-56	79.7(66–92)	0.0%
18	Washington NationalsWSH	55-57	79.7(67–94)	0.0%
19	Seattle MarinersSEA	54-58	79.7(65–93)	0.0%
20	Baltimore OriolesBAL	54-57	79.6(66–95)	0.0%
21	Detroit TigersDET	53-58	79.1(67–93)	0.0%
22	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	54-57	78.4(64–91)	0.0%
23	Cincinnati RedsCIN	52-58	77.1(64–95)	0.0%
24	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	52-59	77.1(64–91)	0.0%
25	San Francisco GiantsSF	47-64	71.9(59–86)	0.0%
26	New York MetsNYM	47-65	70.3(59–82)	0.0%
27	Kansas City RoyalsKC	46-66	70.2(58–84)	0.0%
28	AthleticsATH	45-66	69.7(57–87)	0.0%
29	Colorado RockiesCOL	44-67	66.0(54–79)	0.0%
30	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	42-69	64.2(52–78)	0.0%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record — a clean, bias-free read on the title race.

MLB power rankings Standings