The Model Cards
Wednesday, October 7, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. MLB picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 11:42 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
MLB picks to win4 games, most likely winner first
TB@
NYY
Pick NYY60% to winat -167market 60%
LAD@
ATL
Pick LAD57% to winat -155market 58%
CLE@
CWS
Pick CWS53% to winat -127market 53%
MIL@
SD
Pick SD51% to winat -112market 51%
Games ticketall 4 picks to win
NYY + LAD + CWS + SD
+790
combined odds
9.2%
chance it all hits
-18.5%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Walker Buehler o2.5 strikeouts + Max Fried o3.5 strikeouts + Nick Martinez o2.5 strikeouts + Tyler Mahle o3.5 strikeouts + Tyler Glasnow o6.5 strikeouts
+233
fair odds
30.0%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
NYY + LAD + CWS + Walker Buehler o2.5 + Max Fried o3.5 + Nick Martinez o2.5
+699
combined odds
10.6%
chance it all hits
-15.5%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Tyler GlasnowLAD · P
Over 6.5 strikeouts · model 68% · projects 8.1
Max FriedNYY · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 84% · projects 5.3
Tyler MahleATL · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 75% · projects 4.7
Nick MartinezTB · P
Over 2.5 strikeouts · model 80% · projects 3.6
Walker BuehlerSD · P
Over 2.5 strikeouts · model 87% · projects 4
Changes before puck drop
- 11:42 AM ET: NYY -173 to -167; LAD -149 to -155; CWS -120 to -127; SD -115 to -112
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.