The Model Cards
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. MLB picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Frozen 11:00 AM ET, prices are freeze-time lines and never edited after.
MLB picks to win4 games, most likely winner first
ATL@
LAD
Pick LAD64% to winat -212market 65%
SD@
MIL
Pick MIL64% to winat -203market 64%
CWS@
CLE
Pick CLE58% to winat -149market 57%
NYY@
TB
Pick TB55% to winat -135market 55%
The card as one ticketall 4 legs
LAD + MIL + CLE + TB
+539
combined odds
13.2%
chance it all hits
-15.9%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design. Play the legs straight, or the ticket for the sweat, your call.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Tarik SkubalLAD · P
Over 5.5 strikeouts · model 68% · projects 6.8
Drew RasmussenTB · P
Over 4.5 strikeouts · model 75% · projects 6
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL · P
Over 5.5 strikeouts · model 72% · projects 7.1
Parker MessickCLE · P
Over 5.5 strikeouts · model 65% · projects 6.6
Gerrit ColeNYY · P
Over 4.5 strikeouts · model 67% · projects 5.5
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes; grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.