The Post-Deadline Saves Market: Kittredge, Ben Joyce and a League Full of Committees

The trade deadline reshaped more closer situations than it usually does, and the fallout is still settling a week later. Three bullpens in particular have open or unsettled ninth innings, and the fantasy managers who identify the right reliever before the save totals start accumulating will pick up a category for free.

Saves have always been the most volatile fantasy category, but the current environment has pushed volatility to a new level. More teams are running matchup-based committees, fewer teams are protecting a single designated closer, and the number of pitchers recording at least one save in a season keeps climbing. The old strategy of drafting three closers and forgetting about them stopped working several years ago. The replacement strategy is to work the waiver wire aggressively, and August is when the leverage is highest.

Baltimore: Andrew Kittredge by default

The Orioles traded Tyler Wells to Tampa Bay on August 3, removing another arm from what had already become a closer-by-committee. Andrew Kittredge is the most likely beneficiary of save chances in the short term.

The complication is that Baltimore's two best relievers are both working back from injuries. Ryan Helsley, signed to a two-year deal to be the club's closer, missed roughly seven weeks earlier this season with right elbow inflammation and has since dealt with more elbow trouble. Felix Bautista has been out with a shoulder issue for essentially the entire season.

Both are on comeback trails, which means Kittredge's window is real but potentially short. That is a familiar shape for a waiver add: high immediate value with a defined expiration risk. In leagues where saves are scarce, that is still worth the roster spot, because two or three weeks of ninth-inning work in August is worth more than a marginal bat.

The Orioles have also spread saves around this season more than most clubs, with several relievers picking up multiple opportunities. Anyone adding Kittredge should expect the occasional matchup-based override rather than a clean, exclusive role.

Anaheim: Ben Joyce is the name to chase

The Angels traded away multiple relievers at the deadline, including Ryan Zeferjahn and Kirby Yates, and are running a committee that has included Sam Bachman, Samy Natera Jr. and Luke Murphy.

The more interesting development is Ben Joyce, who was activated from the injured list on August 4 following shoulder surgery. The team's stated plan is to work him into high-leverage situations first and let the closing role follow if he holds up.

Joyce is the highest-upside speculative add of the group by a wide margin. His stuff plays at the top of the league when healthy, and organizations that trade away their established relievers at the deadline are signaling that they intend to find out what their young arms can do over the final two months. That is exactly the environment in which a hard-throwing reliever returning from surgery gets the ninth inning.

The risk is equally clear. A pitcher returning from shoulder surgery is on an innings and usage ramp, and teams do not typically hand the closer job to someone they are managing carefully. The most likely path is high-leverage work in August followed by save opportunities in September.

For managers who can afford to wait, Joyce is the add. For managers who need saves this week, one of the committee arms is a more practical stopgap.

Arizona: the committee after Sewald

Arizona removed Paul Sewald from the closer role on August 5 after a rough opening to the second half, and Brandyn Garcia recorded the first saves under the new arrangement. The club has indicated it will use a committee.

Garcia is the immediate add, with the standard caveat that first-mover advantage in a committee is not the same as owning the job. Committees resolve toward whichever arm performs, and August performance is a small sample.

The strategic point underneath all of this

The common thread across all three situations is that none of them will be settled by an announcement. Managers who wait for a team to name a closer will be too late in every case, because the save opportunities that matter for a fantasy season are the ones that occur before the role is formalized.

The correct approach is to hold two speculative relievers on your bench through August. The cost is two roster spots on players who may produce nothing. The payoff is that when one of these situations resolves, you already have the pitcher.

That trade is favorable in any league where saves are a scoring category and the waiver wire is competitive. It is not favorable in shallow leagues where quality bats are still available, and it is a poor use of resources in leagues where you are already comfortably ahead in saves.

The Verdexed model take

Our reliever projections weight recent leverage index more heavily than announced roles, because the pitcher a manager uses in the eighth inning of a one-run game is a better predictor of who closes next week than any press conference. By that measure, Joyce is the most likely of these arms to be closing by September, and Kittredge is the most likely to accumulate saves over the next two weeks.

The model is more skeptical of Arizona's situation than the immediate reporting suggests, because committees formed after a demotion have historically been less stable than committees formed by design.

For daily fantasy purposes, none of these relievers should be rostered in cash games. In tournaments, punting on a low-salary reliever in a situation with save upside is a leverage play that occasionally pays.

What to do this week

Add Ben Joyce in any league where you can carry a stash. Add Kittredge if you need saves now and can absorb the risk that Helsley or Bautista returns. Add Garcia only in deep leagues, since the Arizona committee looks least likely to produce a single dominant option.

And check the leverage usage every few days rather than waiting for the save totals. The information is in who pitches the eighth.