The September Saves Chase Starts With Five Bullpens That Never Settled

Saves have been the most chaotic fantasy category in baseball this season, and with five weeks left in the regular season the chaos has not resolved. Several good teams have spent the entire year cycling through ninth-inning options, and the clubs that finally settled did so through trades rather than performance.

For anyone chasing the category in a rotisserie league or trying to survive a head-to-head playoff run, here is where the ninth innings actually stand and where the remaining value is.

The situations that have settled

**Toronto.** Louis Varland has the job and now has it without competition. The Blue Jays traded away Jeff Hoffman, who had been the primary threat to his save opportunities, and Varland responded by running his total to 26 saves through the middle of August. This is the cleanest closer situation among contenders that were unsettled in July, and it is the one you should be least afraid of rostering into September.

**Kansas City.** Matt Quatraro turned to Lucas Erceg, and Erceg has stabilized the back of the bullpen, allowing just two hits and no earned runs across a recent eight-outing stretch while compiling 10 saves on the year. The volume is modest because the role came to him late, but the leverage is real and the job appears to be his.

The situations still open

**Arizona.** Paul Sewald lost hold of the closer role in the final week of July, and the Diamondbacks have not replaced him with a single name. Brandyn Garcia, Juan Morillo, Jonathan Loaisiga and Kevin Ginkel have all been mentioned in the mix for late-inning duties. A committee on a team fighting for a wild card spot is the most frustrating fantasy situation there is, because the save opportunities are plentiful and the assignment is unpredictable.

**Los Angeles Angels.** The Angels rank last in all of baseball with 14 saves, which is less a bullpen problem than a symptom of a team that has not had many leads to protect. Reporting has suggested Natera could emerge as the favorite for save chances. In a deep league, that is worth a speculative add. In a shallow one, a closer on a team that does not win games is not a closer.

**Chicago White Sox.** Seranthony Dominguez opened the season as the primary closer and was traded to Seattle in the package that brought Luis Castillo to the South Side. Grant Taylor has been among the arms seeing save opportunities in the aftermath. The White Sox have been better than expected this season, which means the leads exist, which means whoever holds the job holds real value.

The one that already turned over

Edwin Diaz is back on the injured list, and Tanner Scott has taken over the ninth inning for the Dodgers. That is not a speculative situation. It is a resolved one, and if Scott is somehow available in your league it is the single best waiver claim on the board. A closer on a team projected near 98 wins gets more save chances in September than a closer on any other roster in the National League.

The Verdexed model take

Our reliever projections separate two things that fantasy managers routinely conflate: the probability a pitcher holds the role, and the number of opportunities that role will generate.

Role security is a function of recent leverage usage rather than recent results. The tell is not whether a reliever has converted his last five saves. It is whether his manager has used him in the eighth inning of a one-run game recently. A pitcher used in the highest-leverage spot regardless of inning is a pitcher the manager trusts, and he will get the ninth in the games that matter.

Opportunity is a function of team quality and, specifically, of close-game frequency. This is where the Angels situation fails. A team last in the league in saves is not generating the leads, and no amount of role security fixes that.

Running both, our model ranks the remaining unrostered value in this order: the Arizona committee arm who takes two consecutive save chances first, followed by Grant Taylor, followed by the Angels option. The Arizona arm ranks highest because the Diamondbacks are in a wild card chase and will play close games in September, which is the highest opportunity environment available among unsettled bullpens.

What to do in your league

Three rules for the last five weeks.

First, stop chasing yesterday's save. Adding a reliever the day after he records a save is the most common and most expensive mistake in the category. By the time the box score confirms the role, the price has moved and the role may not be real.

Second, prioritize opportunity over talent. A mediocre reliever on a contender will out-earn a better reliever on a bad team over five weeks, because saves are counted, not weighted.

Third, in head-to-head leagues, check your playoff schedule against team schedules. A closer whose team plays seven games in your championship week is worth more than one whose team plays five, and that gap is larger than any difference in skill between the two.

Betting angle

The relevant market is team totals in games where an unsettled bullpen is likely to be exposed. A team without a defined closer gives up late runs at a higher rate than its bullpen ERA suggests, because the manager burns his best arms early and improvises the ninth.

That is a live in-game angle more than a pregame one. When a team with a committee bullpen takes a one-run lead into the eighth, the live under on the game total is worse than the market treats it, and the live moneyline on the trailing team is better. Committee bullpens blow more leads than defined ones, and the live market prices the lead rather than the arms protecting it.

What's next

September call-ups add arms to every bullpen in baseball, which usually muddies committee situations rather than clarifying them. The clarifying event is a contender deciding it cannot keep improvising, which typically happens after a high-profile blown lead in a game that costs standings position. Watch Arizona for exactly that, because a team a game out of a wild card spot cannot afford many more of them.