Jacob Webb Blew a Third Straight Save and the Cubs Say They Still Believe in Him
By Verdexed MLB Desk
Jacob Webb blew his third consecutive save opportunity this week, and the Cubs responded by saying they still have faith in him. That is the situation fantasy managers in the middle of their own playoffs are trying to price with under three weeks left in the regular season.
Webb has seven blown saves on the year, which is tied for the National League lead. He also brought a 24-appearance scoreless streak and an earned run average in the low twos into this run, which is the part of the story that explains why Chicago has not moved off him.
How the Cubs got here
Webb inherited the closer's job rather than winning it. Daniel Palencia opened the season in the role, went down with a right elbow flexor strain in mid-June, spent nearly two months out and was eventually shifted to the 60-day injured list in August as a roster-flexibility move. Webb took the ninth inning and held it through the summer well enough that the Cubs stopped looking for alternatives.
Palencia has since been activated, and the Cubs have indicated he will not simply reclaim the job. The plan described publicly is that he works as a high-leverage out-getter rather than as a designated closer, which is a sentence that means the manager will use him where he thinks the game is decided rather than in a fixed inning.
That is the modern bullpen answer, and it is terrible news for anyone who needs saves.
Why the Cubs are not panicking
Chicago sits second in the National League Central at 81-66, well behind a Milwaukee team that has run away with the division, and comfortably inside a wild card position. The Cubs are not fighting for their postseason life. They are trying to arrive in October with a bullpen they trust.
That context explains the public backing. A team that is going to the playoffs regardless has every incentive to let a struggling reliever work through it in September rather than to burn through options and arrive in the wild card round without a settled hierarchy. Blown saves in the middle of a comfortable September are the cheapest blown saves a contender will ever spend.
It also means the Cubs are not going to announce a new closer to satisfy fantasy managers. Committee language is going to persist right up until someone pitches well enough to end the conversation.
Fantasy fallout
Hold Webb if you are already rostering him, because he still gets the majority of the save chances and the alternative is speculating on a committee with no announced hierarchy. A closer with job security problems is still worth more than a setup man without a role.
Do not add Webb if you are chasing saves from outside. The acquisition cost in most leagues is no longer worth the expected return, and the downside case, where Chicago quietly shifts to matchups, is very live.
Palencia is the speculative add. He was the closer before the injury, he is healthy, and the fastest path to a settled ninth inning is the pitcher who held it before. The team has said he will not return to the role immediately, and teams say that about returning closers constantly right up until they change their minds.
For managers who need saves this week and cannot wait, the better strategy is to punt the category and win elsewhere. September closer committees on comfortable contenders are the single worst place to spend waiver capital, because the manager is optimizing for October and you are optimizing for the next seven days.
Betting angle
Cubs games are now a live under proposition in the eighth and ninth innings in the live markets, which is a real and tradeable edge when a bullpen is going through this kind of stretch. The market prices late-inning run scoring off season-long bullpen numbers, and Chicago's have been distorted by a strong first four months.
The more disciplined angle is team totals for Cubs opponents. A bullpen that has blown seven saves and is publicly working through a confidence problem is a bullpen whose opponents' late-inning scoring is underpriced.
Chicago's own postseason futures are a different matter. A wild card team with a good rotation and a shaky ninth inning is precisely the profile that the market tends to underprice in a short series, because bullpen volatility cuts both ways over three games. There is no reason to fade the Cubs in October on the basis of September save conversions.
The Verdexed model take
Reliever projections should be built from strikeout rate, walk rate and contact quality rather than from saves and blown saves, because save conversion is one of the noisiest statistics in the sport. Webb's underlying numbers before this stretch were strong enough that the model reads his recent run as regression toward a mean rather than a collapse in ability.
The difficulty is that fantasy scoring does not care about the model's read. Saves are assigned by a manager, and managers respond to results. That is why the model's projection for Webb's remaining save total carries a much wider error bar than his projection for runs allowed.
What to do in your league
Hold Webb, stash Palencia if you have a bench spot, and do not spend meaningful waiver budget on either. The Cubs will sort this out for October, and they are under no obligation to sort it out before your championship week.