The Padres Swept the Cubs and Now Face Jacob Misiorowski in the NLDS

The Padres finished off the Cubs on Wednesday night with a 4-1 win in San Diego, completing a two-game Wild Card sweep and setting up an NLDS against the top-seeded Brewers. Game 1 is Saturday at American Family Field at 8:30 p.m. ET on FS1, and Milwaukee will start Jacob Misiorowski, who led the majors in ERA and strikeouts.

San Diego allowed one run in 18 innings to the highest-scoring offense in the majors. That is the clearest sign of what this team can do in October. The question now is whether a pitching staff built for a short series can carry that form into a best-of-five against a 103-win opponent.

Padres 4, Cubs 1

The Padres did it with their bullpen this time. Nick Pivetta lasted 3 1/3 innings, allowing one run on three hits and two walks, and five San Diego pitchers combined on a five-hitter. The relievers covered 5 2/3 scoreless innings and allowed two hits. Mason Miller pitched the ninth for his first career playoff save.

The big swing came in the fourth. After Xander Bogaerts doubled to chase Kevin Gausman, pinch-hitter Gavin Sheets drove a 100.8 mph fastball from Daniel Palencia into the right-field seats for a two-run homer, the Padres' first pinch-hit postseason homer since 2005. Gausman was charged with two runs over 3 1/3 innings.

Combined with Michael King's seven scoreless innings in Game 1's 8-0 win, the series was a pitching statement. The Cubs, who led the majors in runs, never found a big inning against King, Pivetta or the bullpen.

What the sweep buys San Diego

Ending it in two games matters more than the scoreline. The Padres used King on Tuesday and Pivetta for a short outing on Wednesday, and they get two days off before Saturday. San Diego had not named its NLDS Game 1 starter as of Wednesday night. Walker Buehler was reported as a leading candidate, and King, who will be on full rest by Sunday's Game 2, is the obvious choice for a big start early in the series.

The bullpen is the other gain. Miller and the Padres' late-inning group carried 5 2/3 innings on Wednesday, but the off days mean they should be fresh by Saturday. In a series that starts against Misiorowski, San Diego will likely need its relievers to keep games close rather than protect big leads.

Milwaukee's rotation

Brewers manager Pat Murphy named Misiorowski for Game 1 and Logan Henderson for Game 2, calling them the team's two top starters right now, while noting the plan is subject to change. Misiorowski went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP, and opponents hit .157 against him, the lowest mark on record for a qualifying pitcher in a non-shortened season. Henderson went 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA.

Milwaukee finished 103-59 and earned the NL's top seed. The open question for the Brewers is the back half of the rotation, since reports this week focused on who starts Games 3 and 4. That is where San Diego's best chance lies: steal one of the first two, then get to the games where the Brewers' starting edge narrows.

The other NLDS: Dodgers wait on Thursday

The Dodgers will host the winner of Thursday's Phillies-Braves Game 3. NLDS Game 1 is locked into a 1 p.m. PT start at Dodger Stadium on Fox, a slot set when San Diego finished its sweep. Dave Roberts had said he hoped to avoid a day game with a forecast near 100 degrees, so heat is a factor for both pitching staffs.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is considered the likely Game 1 starter, partly because he would be on normal rest for a potential Game 5. Whoever the Dodgers draw will arrive having used most of its best arms in a three-game series, while Los Angeles has had the week to line up its rotation.

Betting angle

The Brewers are the favorite, and one published simulation has them winning the series about 64% of the time. On the futures board, FanDuel listed Milwaukee at +500 to win the World Series and San Diego at +2000, a wide gap for two teams that both enter in good form.

The Game 1 price will lean heavily toward Misiorowski, and that is fair. The better entry point on San Diego, if you want one, is the series price or Game 2, where Henderson is good but not historically good, and where King or Buehler can match up. San Diego's run prevention against the Cubs was elite, and that profile travels.

For the Dodgers' series, bettors should wait for Thursday's result. A Phillies team that burns Wheeler in relief or an Atlanta team that leans on Iglesias, Fuentes and Lee again will be at a disadvantage in Game 1, and that should show up in the opening price.

Fantasy and DFS notes

Misiorowski is the top pitching play on Saturday's NL slate in any format, with strikeout upside that no other starter can match. On the Padres side, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Bogaerts did the damage in this series, and Sheets earned a look as a cheap option if he starts against a right-hander.

For the Dodgers' game, Yamamoto is the safe anchor, and the opponent's hitters carry extra risk because of how tired their bullpen will be in the late innings, which cuts both ways for stacks.

What's next

Thursday's Phillies-Braves game decides the last NLDS slot. Saturday then brings both NL openers: the Dodgers at 1 p.m. PT and Padres at Brewers at 5:30 p.m. PT. Expect San Diego to name its Game 1 starter by Friday.

Verdexed's game-by-game probabilities for the Division Series are on the MLB predictions page, and Saturday's card will be at /blog/mlb-picks-2026-10-03.