Brewers vs. Rays World Series Preview: Rotations, Bullpens, MVP Candidates and How a Series Between First-Time Champions Swings

Someone is winning a first World Series. The Milwaukee Brewers (103-59), owners of baseball's best regular-season record, host the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) in Game 1 on Friday, Oct. 23, at American Family Field, and neither franchise has ever won a title. Milwaukee is back in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1982 after sweeping the Dodgers in the NLCS; Tampa Bay won three straight to finish Cleveland in six games and claim the third pennant in club history.

Sportsbooks have Milwaukee as a clear but not overwhelming favorite. DraftKings lists the Brewers at -160 to win the series and the Rays at +140, FanDuel has Milwaukee at -172 and Tampa Bay at +148, and bet365 sits at -170 and +145. The Game 1 matchup of Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Misiorowski has been covered on its own; this preview is about the full seven-game picture.

The schedule and why the off days matter

All games are scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on FOX. The off days after Games 2 and 5 are the hidden structure of this series. They let each team's top two starters pitch Games 1, 2, 5 and 6 on regular rest, which means the series will likely be decided by how each club covers Games 3 and 4 in St. Petersburg and whatever happens in a possible Game 7.

Rotations: Tampa Bay's strength

ESPN's preview called the Rays' rotation the best in this year's playoff field, and the top two are why. Drew Rasmussen went 11-0 with a 1.73 ERA in 15 starts after the All-Star break, according to MLB.com, and Freddy Peralta won twice in the ALCS and was named series MVP. Peralta also spent years as Milwaukee's ace, which adds a layer to his expected Game 2 start against Logan Henderson.

Behind them, the picture is less settled for both teams. Tampa Bay has used Griffin Jax and Nick Martinez in Games 3 and 4 this postseason: Jax started ALCS Game 3, and Martinez won Game 4 after starting a game in the Division Series. Manager Kevin Cash has not announced his Game 3 starter, and Martinez's regular-season splits were notably better on the road than at Tropicana Field.

Milwaukee's rotation begins with Jacob Misiorowski, who led MLB pitchers in ERA (1.80), WHIP (0.80) and strikeouts (252) during the regular season. The concern is length: he has not reached the sixth inning in a playoff start this October. Henderson, Robert Gasser and deadline addition Dustin May fill out the group, and none has worked past the fifth inning in the postseason. Expect manager Pat Murphy to run short starts in Games 3 and 4 and lean on relief.

Games 3 and 4 are projections, not announcements.

Bullpens: Milwaukee's strength

If the Rays have the better front of the rotation, the Brewers have the better bullpen, and most previews agree on that. One count has Milwaukee's relievers allowing six earned runs over 40 2/3 postseason innings. Aaron Ashby was the NLCS's best multi-inning weapon, Abner Uribe is one of the sport's best setup men and Trevor Megill closes. The week off since the NLCS means every one of them is fresh.

The open question is Brandon Woodruff. He threw 23 live pitches Tuesday and has faced hitters only once since a right shoulder problem sidelined him for more than three months. The roster is due Friday morning, general manager Matt Arnold said the team was still working through the decision, and at least one report called his inclusion unlikely. If he makes it, it would be in relief. Reports have also noted that left-hander Kyle Harrison could be useful against Tampa Bay's lineup.

Tampa Bay's late innings are anchored by closer Bryan Baker, who has been close to untouchable this October, with Ian Seymour and Tyler Wells handling big outs. CBS Sports' panel flagged the bridge from starter to Baker as Cash's biggest problem, and that is precisely where Milwaukee's patient lineup does its damage.

Lineups: on-base vs. a little more pop

Neither team hits for much power. Milwaukee led MLB in batting average, on-base percentage and walk rate this season but finished near the bottom of the league in home runs, and its October offense has come in late bursts against tired bullpens. Jake Bauers won NLCS MVP after hitting safely in all four games and driving in six runs, Garrett Mitchell homered twice in that series, and William Contreras, Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang are the core around them.

The Rays slugged about league average and have leaned on the top of the order: Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero. Caminero entered the ALCS clincher 7-for-30 with two RBIs and then hit a two-run homer, which is a reasonable summary of a hitter who can carry a series in two swings.

World Series MVP candidates

Prices vary by book. FanDuel lists Contreras at +600, Chourio at +650, Caminero at +850, Misiorowski and Bauers at +1000 each, and Rasmussen at +1900. ESPN's listing has Chourio slightly ahead of Contreras, with Caminero the top Rays name.

The pitchers are the most interesting part of the board. If the series goes six or seven, Rasmussen and Misiorowski are each lined up for two starts, and Peralta would line up for Games 2 and 6, which makes the Rays' top two starters live long shots.

The Verdexed angle: how the series swings

Our read is that this is closer than the price suggests. Milwaukee is the better team over 162 games, has home field and comes in rested. Tampa Bay has the two best starters in the series lined up for four of seven possible games, a closer who has not blinked and a lineup that arrives in rhythm after three games in three days.

Three swing points decide it. First, Misiorowski's length: if he reaches the seventh inning in Game 1, Milwaukee's bullpen advantage compounds across the series; if he exits in the fifth again, the Brewers are spending relievers early. Second, Games 3 and 4 in St. Petersburg, where Milwaukee's bullpen depth should beat whichever Rays starter goes, unless Tampa Bay's lineup gets to Gasser or May early. Third, the middle innings for the Rays, where Milwaukee's on-base approach is built to punish the bridge to Baker.

We lean toward the series going at least six games, with Milwaukee's bullpen depth the most likely deciding factor and the Rays' top two starters keeping them in it throughout. Verdexed's game-by-game call for every World Series game lives at /mlb/predictions.

What's next

Both rosters are due Friday morning. Watch for the Woodruff decision, Cash's Game 3 starter and whether Murphy names Gasser or May. The Game 1 matchup is set for 8 p.m. ET Friday in Milwaukee.