NHL Picks for October 4: VGK 67% Leads a 4-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
4 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-04. The firmest call is VGK at 67% over VAN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 2. Season to date the model is 16-18 (47.1%) on graded picks, Brier 0.240.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK at VAN | VGK | 67% | 70% | -3 | -278 | VGK -1.5 | 6.5 | VGK -245 |
| CGY at SEA | SEA | 56% | 58% | -2 | -155 | SEA -1.5 | 5.5 | SEA -155 |
| UTA at NYR | NYR | 52% | 53% | -1 | -125 | NYR -1.5 | 5.5 | NYR -130 |
| FLA at ANA | ANA | 51% | 45% | +6 | +114 | FLA -1.5 | 6.5 | ANA +114 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Where the model and the market disagree
ANA over FLA: we make it 51%, the market 45%. The edge comes from head to head (+1.2 points), schedule load (+1.0 points).
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:
VGK over VAN: we make it 67%, the market 70% (a 3-point gap).
Game by game
Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks: VGK 67%
The model has VGK at 67% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: back to back (+7.0 points), rest (+6.3 points), venue (+4.7 points). The case against is motivation (-1.4 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| VGK | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.0 | +0.7 |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Last five | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head to head | 6 wins | 0 wins |
VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | assists | 1.5 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mark Stone | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Reilly Smith | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jake DeBrusk | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Tomas Hertl | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken: SEA 56%
The model has SEA at 56% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: head to head (+2.6 points), power play (+1.9 points), shot margin (+1.3 points). The case against is venue (-5.9 points). The line is SEA -1.5, total 5.5.
| CGY | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -4.0 | +1.5 |
| Home / road | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Last five | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Jacob Melanson.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Bobby McMann | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matt Coronato | shots on goal | 1.7 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Vince Dunn | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Morgan Frost | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers: NYR 52%
The model has NYR at 52% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: back to back (+7.9 points), rest (+7.2 points), power play (+2.5 points). The case against is shot share (corsi) (-3.1 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 5.5.
| UTA | NYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +4.5 | +1.0 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W2 | W2 |
| Last five | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 1 wins |
UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux. NYR starter: Igor Shesterkin (projected). NYR out: Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Nick Schmaltz | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Clayton Keller | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Clayton Keller | assists | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mika Zibanejad | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Igor Shesterkin | saves | 21.1 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Igor Shesterkin | goals against | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks: ANA 51%
The model has ANA at 51% against a market price of 45%. What drives it: head to head (+1.2 points), schedule load (+1.0 points), injuries (ana without terry, moore; fla without barkov, marchand) (+0.8 points). The case against is venue (-6.7 points). The line is FLA -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.
| FLA | ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0-1 | 1-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.0 | +1.0 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | O1 | W1 |
| Last five | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom (projected). FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Drew Helleson, Ian Moore, Troy Terry.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier | shots on goal | 3.9 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Leo Carlsson | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Cole Reinhardt | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Sam Reinhart | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Reinhardt | FLA | 0.84 | 57% | -131 | -117 |
| Nick Schmaltz | UTA | 0.76 | 53% | -114 | -102 |
| Cutter Gauthier | ANA | 0.70 | 50.3% | -101 | +109 |
| Dylan Guenther | UTA | 0.68 | 49% | +103 | +114 |
| Reilly Smith | VGK | 0.62 | 46% | +116 | +128 |
| Mark Stone | VGK | 0.59 | 45% | +124 | +136 |
| Jack Eichel | VGK | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Leo Carlsson | ANA | 0.53 | 41% | +143 | +156 |
| Jake DeBrusk | VAN | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Marco Rossi | VAN | 0.47 | 38% | +167 | +181 |
| Gabe Perreault | NYR | 0.47 | 38% | +167 | +181 |
| Eetu Luostarinen | FLA | 0.46 | 37% | +171 | +185 |
Yesterday's board
13 games, the model went 8-5.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL at COL | COL | 64% | 61% | 71% | COL 6-1 | Hit | COL -285 (hit) |
| CHI at BUF | BUF | 64% | 62% | 67% | BUF 4-3 | Hit | BUF -230 (hit) |
| SEA at EDM | EDM | 58% | 55% | 64% | EDM 3-1 | Hit | EDM -218 (hit) |
| BOS at MIN | MIN | 58% | 54% | 64% | MIN 4-1 | Hit | MIN -205 (hit) |
| WSH at TBL | TBL | 57% | 54% | 62% | TBL 3-1 | Hit | - |
| OTT at TOR | OTT | 55% | 59% | 48% | OTT 3-2 | Hit | - |
| CAR at PHI | CAR | 55% | 55% | 54% | CAR 3-2 | Hit | - |
| DAL at NSH | DAL | 54% | 54% | 55% | NSH 2-1 | Miss | - |
| MTL at PIT | MTL | 53% | 53% | 54% | PIT 6-5 | Miss | - |
| CGY at VAN | CGY | 52% | 53% | 50.0% | VAN 4-1 | Miss | - |
| LAK at SJS | SJS | 51% | 51% | 52% | SJS 5-4 | Hit | - |
| NJD at NYI | NJD | 51% | 48% | 56% | NYI 6-0 | Miss | - |
| UTA at CBJ | CBJ | 50.2% | 50.5% | 49.6% | UTA 4-1 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: OTT at TOR: the model took OTT (59%), the market TOR; the served pick was OTT and the pick hit. NJD at NYI: the model took NYI (52%), the market NJD; the served pick was NJD and the pick missed. CGY at VAN: the model took CGY (53%), the market VAN; the served pick was CGY and the pick missed. UTA at CBJ: the model took CBJ (50.5%), the market UTA; the served pick was CBJ and the pick missed. MIN over BOS: model 54%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. COL over STL: model 61%, market 71%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: COL 64% over STL (hit), BUF 64% over CHI (hit), EDM 58% over SEA (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-0 on its 4 legs here.
Season to date through October 3: 16-18 (47.1%), Brier 0.240; picks at 60% or better are 3-1.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 16 of 34 (47.1%), Brier score 0.240. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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