NHL Picks for October 3: COL 64% Leads a 13-Game Board

13 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-03. The firmest call is COL at 64% over STL; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 7. Season to date the model is 8-13 (38.1%) on graded picks, Brier 0.256.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

OTT over TOR: we make it 55%, the market 49%. The edge comes from shot share (corsi) (+7.8 points), head to head (+2.6 points).

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

COL over STL: we make it 64%, the market 71% (a 7-point gap).

BUF over CHI: we make it 64%, the market 67% (a 3-point gap).

EDM over SEA: we make it 58%, the market 64% (a 6-point gap).

MIN over BOS: we make it 58%, the market 64% (a 7-point gap).

TBL over WSH: we make it 58%, the market 64% (a 7-point gap).

NJD over NYI: we make it 50.2%, the market 55% (a 5-point gap).

Game by game

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche: COL 64%

The model has COL at 64% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+7.2 points), venue (+6.8 points), rest (+6.6 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.9 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 7-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

STL starter: Jordan Binnington (likely). STL out: Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (likely). COL out: Trent Miner, Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor, Zachary L'Heureux.

Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres: BUF 64%

The model has BUF at 64% against a market price of 67%. What drives it: head to head (+4.7 points), shot share (corsi) (+2.8 points), power play (+1.3 points). The case against is venue (-2.0 points). The line is BUF -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Connor Bedard, Andrew Mangiapane. BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Topias Leinonen, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Jason Zucker.

Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers: EDM 58%

The model has EDM at 58% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: power play (+4.5 points), venue (+4.5 points), shot share (corsi) (+4.0 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.0 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Mackie Samoskevich. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild: MIN 58%

The model has MIN at 58% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: rest (+7.0 points), venue (+3.1 points), back to back (+1.1 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-1.6 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 7-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

BOS starter: Michael DiPietro (projected). BOS out: Matthew Poitras. MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt. MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber.

Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning: TBL 58%

The model has TBL at 58% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: rest (+7.0 points), venue (+6.3 points), shot share (corsi) (+4.0 points). The case against is injuries (-0.8 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 7-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

WSH starter: Charlie Lindgren. WSH out: Rasmus Sandin. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely).

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs: OTT 55%

The model has OTT at 55% against a market price of 49%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+7.8 points), head to head (+2.6 points), motivation (+1.6 points). The case against is venue (-3.3 points). The line is TOR -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

OTT starter: Linus Ullmark (likely). OTT out: Artem Zub, Andre Burakovsky, Kurtis MacDermid. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky (likely). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, Max Domi.

Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers: CAR 55%

The model has CAR at 55% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+10.2 points), venue (+5.6 points), power play (+4.2 points). The case against is rest (-7.2 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 5.5.

CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis. PHI starter: Joseph Woll. PHI out: Denver Barkey, Helge Grans, Nikita Grebenkin.

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators: DAL 55%

The model has DAL at 55% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: head to head (+3.1 points), power play (+2.9 points), injuries (+1.7 points). The case against is rest (-7.2 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 6.5.

DAL starter: Casey DeSmith. DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Jaxon Fuder, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys, Tristan Bertucci. NSH starter: Juuse Saros (likely).

Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins: MTL 53%

The model has MTL at 53% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: rest (+1.4 points), shot margin (+1.2 points), high-danger chances (+0.9 points). The case against is shot share (corsi) (-2.1 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 6.5.

MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Kaiden Guhle. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs. PIT out: Ben Kindel, Ryan Graves, Bryan Rust, Justin Brazeau.

Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks: CGY 52%

The model has CGY at 52% against a market price of 50.0%. What drives it: venue (+5.5 points), penalty kill (+3.0 points), motivation (+1.6 points). The case against is power play (-3.0 points). The line is VAN -1.5, total 6.5.

CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks: SJS 51%

The model has SJS at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: power play (+2.3 points), head to head (+1.7 points), shot margin (+1.2 points). The case against is venue (-7.4 points). The line is SJS -1.5, total 6.5.

LAK starter: Anton Forsberg (likely). SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov.

New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders: NJD 50.2%

The model has NJD at 50.2% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: power play (+2.9 points), shot share (corsi) (+2.1 points), venue (+0.9 points). The case against is head to head (-4.6 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 5.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

NJD starter: Nico Daws. NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin. NYI out: Mathew Barzal.

Utah Mammoth at Columbus Blue Jackets: CBJ 50.2%

The model has CBJ at 50.2% against a market price of 49.6%. What drives it: time zone (+0.7 points). The case against is venue (-2.8 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.

UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux. CBJ starter: Jet Greaves (projected).

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

5 games, the model went 0-5.

Where the model and the market split: ANA at VGK: the model took ANA (52%), the market VGK; the served pick was VGK and the pick missed. WSH at CAR: the model took WSH (51%), the market CAR; the served pick was CAR and the pick missed. DAL over STL: model 51%, market 62%, an 11-point gap; the pick missed.

The firmest calls: DET 57% over NYR (miss), WPG 56% over BOS (miss), DAL 55% over STL (miss).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 0-4 on its 4 legs here.

Season to date through October 2: 8-13 (38.1%), Brier 0.256; picks at 60% or better are 1-1.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 8 of 21 (38.1%), Brier score 0.256. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

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