Jaguars at Bengals Carries Week 4's Highest Total and Both Quarterbacks Are Rolling

The betting market has picked its shootout for Week 4. Jacksonville at Cincinnati opened with a total that has climbed to 51.5 points, the highest on the board, with the Bengals favored by 2.5 at home. That puts Cincinnati's implied team total around 27 points and Jacksonville's around 24.5. Both teams are 2-1, and both quarterbacks are playing some of the best football in the league.

For fantasy managers and DFS players, this is the game to build around. The question is which side of it holds up.

Two quarterbacks in form

Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow have combined for 13 touchdown passes and three interceptions through three weeks, and both carry a passer rating above 106. Lawrence is coming off one of his cleanest games in years. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns in a 35-6 rout of the Patriots, spreading his scores to Jakobi Meyers, Josh Cameron and Parker Washington, who made a fingertip catch in the end zone.

That game said as much about Jacksonville's defense as its offense. The Jaguars forced three Drake Maye turnovers and held the defending AFC champions to six points. After that performance, Jacksonville ranks first in the league in EPA allowed per dropback.

Burrow is the steadier bet for fantasy. The Bengals' offense is built around his volume, and at home with a total this high, he belongs in the top tier of quarterback plays.

Ja'Marr Chase against the league's best pass defense

Ja'Marr Chase has 18 catches for 185 yards and three touchdowns this season. That line is lighter than usual because Week 1 was a two-catch, 12-yard game. Since then he has looked like himself, and the touchdowns have come in bunches.

The Jaguars pass defense is the reason for caution. Jacksonville has been excellent in coverage, and Travis Hunter is spending most of his time at cornerback. Hunter played a season-high 42 defensive snaps in Week 3 and picked off his first career pass. The Jaguars will likely move coverage toward Chase and make Burrow find other options.

That does not make Chase a sit. It makes him a lower-floor WR1 this week rather than a slam dunk. In DFS, his ownership should come down a bit because of the matchup, and that makes him more appealing in tournaments.

Jacksonville's receivers

The Jaguars' passing game has been spread out, which makes individual receivers harder to trust. Brian Thomas Jr. has just seven catches for 88 yards and no touchdowns on 12 targets through three games while playing through a shoulder issue. His price has dropped, but his role has not grown enough to chase.

Jakobi Meyers is the most reliable weekly option. He has been Lawrence's safety valve, and in a game with this total, he has a solid PPR floor. Parker Washington is a deep-league flex with touchdown upside. Thomas is a WR3 with a wide range of outcomes, and a big game could come in any week, but the data does not support starting him over a steadier option.

DFS strategy

This is the game where a lot of DFS lineups will start. That creates two paths.

Main stack: Burrow with Chase and one other Bengals pass catcher, plus a Jaguars receiver as the run-back. The Bengals are favored and should have the ball more.

Contrarian stack: Lawrence with Meyers and Thomas, plus Chase as the run-back. Fewer lineups will start with Jacksonville's side, and if the Jaguars keep the passing game going after the Patriots game, it will pay off.

Pair either stack with lower-owned players elsewhere on the slate. Stacking the highest total on the board is fine; building an entire lineup that looks like everyone else's is not.

The betting angle

The market is pricing a close game with lots of scoring. The total has climbed since it opened, which tells you where the early money has gone. The problem is that Jacksonville's defense is playing at a level that does not fit a shootout. If the Jaguars pass defense is for real, the under becomes more interesting as the line keeps rising.

The spread is narrower than the total suggests. Cincinnati at -2.5 is essentially a pick with home-field advantage. Verdexed's model will publish its pick on this game with the rest of the Week 4 slate at /blog/nfl-week-4-picks-2026, and win probabilities for every game are on the NFL predictions page.

The Bengals' supporting cast

Chase is not the only option in Cincinnati. Tee Higgins gives Burrow a second receiver who can win outside, and when defenses shade coverage toward Chase, Higgins is usually the beneficiary. Against a Jaguars defense that is likely to focus on Chase, Higgins is a strong WR2 with a real chance to lead the team in targets. The Bengals also added depth this week by signing receiver Mitchell Tinsley to the active roster off Houston's practice squad, though he is not a fantasy consideration.

For DFS, Higgins is the most interesting Bengals salary in this game. He will be less popular than Chase, and his matchup is arguably better.

What it means

Start Burrow, Chase, Lawrence and Meyers in season-long leagues. Brian Thomas Jr. is a flex play, not a locked-in starter. In DFS, the Bengals side is the chalk and Jacksonville's side is the leverage. The total is high for a reason, but this game will be decided by whether Jacksonville's defense stays as good as it was last week.