Steelers at Bengals Sunday Night Preview: Joe Burrow's Hot Streak Meets a Rested Pittsburgh Team With First Place in the AFC North at Stake

The AFC North lead goes to the winner Sunday night. The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers are both 6-2, and they meet at 8:20 p.m. ET at Paycor Stadium on NBC and Peacock. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5, per Dimers' listing of opening odds. It is the second meeting of the season. Pittsburgh won the first one 30-27 in Week 3 when Derrick Harmon strip-sacked Joe Burrow in the final minute.

The two teams come in on very different weeks. The Bengals flew home from Madrid after a 34-17 win over Atlanta, their fourth straight. The Steelers had a Week 9 bye after beating Cleveland 27-6. For fantasy managers, this is the last game of the Sunday slate, and both offenses are worth starting.

How they got here

Cincinnati has played its best football of the season over the last month. Burrow was 24 of 29 for 271 yards and three touchdowns in Madrid and ran in a fourth score. Ja'Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown, the most yards Atlanta has allowed to any player this season. Tee Higgins caught two touchdowns.

Pittsburgh got to the bye playing well on both sides of the ball. Jaylen Warren tied a career high with 143 rushing yards and scored a touchdown against Cleveland, and the defense sacked Deshaun Watson eight times. T.J. Watt had two of the sacks, and the Browns did not reach the end zone for the first time this season.

The matchups that decide it

Burrow against the Steelers' pass rush. The first game turned on a turnover, and Pittsburgh's front has been at its best lately. Eight sacks of Watson show what this group does when it gets an offense into obvious passing downs. Cincinnati's answer is to avoid those downs. In Madrid, Burrow completed 24 of 29 passes even though Atlanta sacked him twice. Watch whether the Bengals' line holds up early. If it does, Chase and Higgins should have room all night.

Warren against the Bengals' run defense. Warren ran 17 times for 127 yards in Week 3 and added three catches for 49 yards, and Pittsburgh ran for 139 yards as a team. For a road underdog, a strong run game is the best way to keep Burrow on the sideline and shorten the game. If Pittsburgh falls behind by two scores, it will have to throw more and Warren's touches will drop.

Pittsburgh's tight ends against Cincinnati's coverage. Coach Mike McCarthy's offense uses its tight ends heavily. Darnell Washington set up the go-ahead score against Cleveland with a 58-yard catch, and Pat Freiermuth remains a red-zone target. RotoBaller reported that through Week 8 the Bengals had allowed 88.7 receiving yards per game to the position. That is the clearest matchup edge Pittsburgh has.

Fantasy plays

Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins: Start all three without hesitation. Chase is a top-five receiver play every week, and Higgins' red-zone role gives him a touchdown floor that few WR2s have.

Jaylen Warren: Start him as an RB2 with upside. He has produced against this defense, and the bye gave him a week of rest after a heavy workload against Cleveland.

Aaron Rodgers: He is a matchup-based streamer, not a locked starter. He threw three touchdowns at home against this defense, but road games against a team that can build a lead are riskier. He fits superflex leagues and deep one-quarterback leagues where Caleb Williams, Bo Nix or Baker Mayfield is on bye.

Pat Freiermuth: He is a TE1 this week because of the matchup. Washington is a dart throw in deep leagues, since his targets come in big plays rather than steady volume. Steelers D/ST: Start them only if your other option is worse. The pass rush is real, but the Bengals' passing offense is one of the hardest matchups a streaming defense can draw.

Market context

According to Dimers' listing of opening odds, the Steelers were +3.5 at -102 and the Bengals -3.5 at -104, with moneylines of +178 and -178 and a total of 47.5. FanDuel opened Cincinnati at -200 on the moneyline with Pittsburgh at +168. The 3.5 matters because it is just above a field goal: Pittsburgh at +3.5 covers any three-point loss, which is how the first meeting was decided in the other direction.

Bettors have arguments on both sides. Cincinnati brings the hotter offense and is at home. Pittsburgh has the extra rest, and the Bengals are coming off a transatlantic trip. BetMGM's preview leaned toward Pittsburgh with the points because of the rest edge. Stats Insider's model projects a 26-21 Cincinnati win. Lines will move before kickoff.

The Verdexed angle

The bye is the key factor in this game. Pittsburgh has had two weeks to prepare and to rest players after a physical win over Cleveland. Cincinnati had a normal week of rest, but it spent part of that week flying home from Spain. That does not change the fantasy calls, because Burrow and Chase are starts in any matchup. It does matter for the game script. A close game in the fourth quarter keeps Warren involved and gives Rodgers a few more throws, while an early Bengals lead turns this into a Burrow-and-Chase game with Pittsburgh chasing.

For the model's view of the spread and total, see the Week 10 picks board and the game page at NFL predictions, where the latest line and injury inputs are reflected.

What's next

Both teams release practice reports through Friday. Because this is the final Sunday game, managers can wait on any questionable player, but there are few replacements left by 8:20 p.m. ET. Have a backup from the Monday night game ready if a Steelers pass catcher is a game-time decision. The winner takes sole possession of first place in the AFC North with eight games left. The loser falls behind in the division race before the second half of the season begins.