Fantasy Basketball First-Round Tiers for 2026-27: Jokic and Wembanyama Lead

Fantasy basketball drafts are still weeks away, but the roster churn that defined this NBA offseason has already reshaped the first round. Giannis Antetokounmpo is in Miami. LeBron James signed with Philadelphia, which also traded for Jaylen Brown. Victor Wembanyama signed a five-year maximum rookie extension in San Antonio after taking the Spurs to the Finals. The board that made sense in June does not make sense now.

Here is how the first round tiers out entering training camp, with the format split that matters most.

Tier 1: the format-proof picks

Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama are the two players who are top-three in every scoring system. Jokic produces elite counting stats in every category a fantasy league tracks and does it with efficiency that does not hurt you anywhere. Wembanyama is the rare player whose blocks and three-pointers arrive in the same stat line, which makes him the most valuable single roster spot in nine-category leagues.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander belongs in this tier as well. He scores at volume, gets to the line, and produces steals without the turnover cost that usually accompanies high-usage guards.

If you pick in the top three, take one of these three and do not overthink it.

Tier 2: elite with a format qualifier

Luka Doncic, Tyrese Maxey and Cade Cunningham anchor the next group in points leagues, where volume scoring and assists carry the day. All three are top-seven picks in that format.

In nine-category leagues, this tier reorders. High-assist, high-usage guards accumulate turnovers, and turnovers are a category. Doncic in particular is a stronger points-league asset than a nine-cat asset, and drafters who use the same rankings sheet for both formats consistently overpay for him in category leagues.

The Giannis question

Antetokounmpo is the single biggest variable on the board. He averaged 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.6 combined steals and blocks last season, which was a down year by his standards, and he is now playing alongside Bam Adebayo in Miami.

In points leagues, he is a clean first-round pick. In nine-category leagues, he falls to the second round because of free throw shooting and a lack of three-pointers, and the Miami move does not fix either. Two elite big men sharing a frontcourt also raises a rebounding question that nobody can answer until we see the rotations.

Our read: Antetokounmpo is a top-five points-league pick and a late first or early second in nine-cat. Anyone taking him in the top four of a category league is drafting the name rather than the categories.

The Verdexed model take

Our projection system's biggest disagreement with consensus is on the Miami frontcourt. The model reduces Adebayo's rebounding and usage projections more than the market has, and it reduces Antetokounmpo's less. Two dominant interior players do not split value evenly; the higher-usage one keeps most of what he had, and the complementary one absorbs the loss.

On the Philadelphia side, the model is cautious in the other direction. Adding LeBron James and Jaylen Brown to a roster that already had Maxey creates three players who need the ball. The model projects Maxey's per-game production to fall modestly while his efficiency improves, which is a net negative in points leagues and roughly neutral in category leagues.

Wembanyama is where the model is most aggressive relative to the field. Coming off a Defensive Player of the Year award and a Finals run at age 22, with an extension signed and no minutes restriction expected, he projects as the highest-value single fantasy asset in the sport.

What to do in your draft

Three practical rules for the first round this year:

**Draft to your format, not to a generic sheet.** The gap between points-league and nine-category value has rarely been this wide at the top of the board. Doncic and Antetokounmpo are the two names where using the wrong sheet costs you the most.

**Do not chase the offseason moves.** Players who changed teams carry more projection uncertainty than players who did not, and the market systematically overrates the winners of an offseason in August. Giannis in Miami, LeBron in Philadelphia and Jaylen Brown in a new system are all situations where the honest projection is wider than usual.

**Take the certainty at the top.** Jokic, Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander are the three players whose roles are guaranteed and whose production has no dependency on how a new rotation shakes out. In a year with this much roster movement, that certainty is worth a pick.

Betting angle

The most efficient way to bet a fantasy opinion is through award futures rather than team futures. Wembanyama's MVP price is the market most closely correlated with the fantasy projection that our model is highest on relative to consensus, and voters have historically rewarded the exact statistical profile he produces.

The counterweight is that MVP voting favors team success, and Oklahoma City and San Antonio opened as co-favorites for the title at roughly +270 each, with Philadelphia and reigning champion New York around +900. Wembanyama's team context is finally strong enough to support the award case that his production has supported for two years.

What's next

Training camps open in late September and the first real information will come from rotation reporting in Miami and Philadelphia, the two teams whose fantasy value is most dependent on how minutes and usage get distributed. Draft boards should stay in pencil until then.