Cole Young Is Hitting Leadoff in Seattle, and He Is the Middle Infield Add Most Leagues Missed

Cole Young has moved into the leadoff spot for the Seattle Mariners, and the fantasy market has not fully adjusted. The 23-year-old second baseman is in the middle of a hot stretch that includes an eight-game hitting streak with multiple hits in five of those games, and the underlying numbers say it is not a fluke.

Young, Seattle's first-round pick in 2022, is hitting .269/.325/.421 on the season with 14 home runs, 51 RBI, 54 runs and three stolen bases across 113 games. Those are useful but unremarkable full-season numbers. The relevant number is what he has done since the calendar turned, and the relevant context is where he is hitting in the order.

The batting order change

Young has been batting leadoff against right-handed pitching in recent games, a shift that coincides with J.P. Crawford's absence from the lineup with a hand issue. He has hit at the top of the order against each of the last several right-handers Seattle has faced.

Batting order position is the most direct lever on counting statistics in fantasy baseball, and it is chronically underweighted by managers who evaluate players on rate statistics. A leadoff hitter gets roughly 15 to 20 percent more plate appearances over a full season than a hitter in the bottom third of the order. Over the six weeks remaining, that is a meaningful difference in runs, hits, and total opportunities.

The caveat is the obvious one: this arrangement exists partly because of an injury. Crawford's return would change the picture, and it is not clear that Young holds the leadoff role once Seattle's lineup is whole. That uncertainty is precisely why Young is still available in a lot of leagues, and it is why he is worth acquiring now rather than after the question is settled.

The underlying case

The performance is backed by process rather than luck, which is the distinction that separates a real breakout from a hot two weeks.

Since the end of May, Young's expected weighted on-base average has tracked north of .350, and his actual weighted on-base average has tracked with it. That alignment matters more than either number on its own. A hitter outperforming his expected numbers is due for regression. A hitter whose results match his batted-ball quality is producing at a level that should persist.

The four-hit game against Minnesota on August 2 was his first career four-hit effort, which is the kind of milestone that reads as a headline and functions as a marker. Young is 23, in his second major league season, and improving within a season is exactly what a young hitter with his contact profile is supposed to do.

The power is the part to be careful about. Fourteen home runs across 113 games is real but not central to his profile, and anyone acquiring Young expecting a power surge in September is buying the wrong thing. He is a batting average, runs, and on-base contributor whose value comes from playing time and lineup position.

Fantasy fallout

Young should be rostered in every twelve-team league and most ten-team leagues. If he is on your waiver wire, he is the best available middle infielder in a substantial number of formats, and middle infield is where most rosters are thinnest by mid-August.

The clearest fits are points leagues and rotisserie leagues where you need runs and batting average rather than power. In a league where you are chasing home runs, he is not your answer. In a league where you are trying not to lose ground in average while adding at-bats, he is exactly the profile.

The acquisition case is strengthened by the schedule shape. Seattle plays meaningful baseball down the stretch, which means Young's playing time is not at risk from a team shifting toward evaluation mode. Contrast that with the equivalent young second baseman on a team that sold at the deadline, whose at-bats are far less secure than they look.

Betting angle

Young's move to the top of the order has direct implications for Mariners player props. A hitter batting leadoff has a materially higher probability of recording a hit in a given game than the same hitter batting seventh, simply because of the extra plate appearance, and hits props are among the most efficiently priced markets in baseball precisely because that adjustment is well understood.

The place where the adjustment lags is in the first several games after a lineup change. Books update lineup-based pricing when lineups post, but the anchoring on a player's season-long profile can persist. If Young's hits or total bases prop is set on his season line rather than on his recent leadoff usage, that is the window.

Seattle team totals are the broader consideration. A lineup that has found a functional leadoff hitter is a slightly better offense than one that has not, and the effect is largest against right-handed starters, which is when Young has been getting the assignment.

The Verdexed model take

Verdexed's model projects hitters using batted-ball quality first and results second, then applies a playing-time and lineup-position multiplier to translate rate production into counting statistics. Young scores well on the first component and has just improved sharply on the second.

The model's read is that Young's true talent level is meaningfully above his season-long slash line, because the season line includes a slow start that no longer reflects how he is hitting. Weighting recent performance appropriately, which means enough to matter but not so much that a hot two weeks dominates, produces a projection that is comfortably startable in twelve-team leagues.

The risk the model flags is the lineup-position one. Its projection assumes he holds the leadoff role against right-handers. If Crawford returns and reclaims it, the projection drops by roughly the value of those extra plate appearances, which is enough to move him from a starter to a bench bat in shallower formats. That is the single variable to monitor.

What to do this week

Claim him now if he is available. The cost in most leagues is low because his season-long numbers do not command attention, and the value is in the current usage rather than the season line.

Then track Seattle's lineup cards daily against right-handed starters. As long as he is hitting first, he is a starter in your lineup. If Crawford returns and Young slides down, reassess, but do not drop him: a 23-year-old hitter with an expected on-base profile in the .350s and an everyday job is worth a bench spot regardless of where he bats.