Chase Brown and Tetairoa McMillan Are Buy-Low Targets and Aaron Jones Is a Sell Before Week 6

Chase Brown played 71% of Cincinnati's offensive snaps in Week 3 and finished with 8.9 PPR points. Tetairoa McMillan caught two passes for 17 yards a week after a 10-target, 101-yard game. Three weeks into the 2026 season, the gap between usage and box scores is wide enough to trade on, and the bye calendar adds a second layer: Carolina and Kansas City sit in Week 5, and Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota follow in Week 6.

What follows is a rest-of-season trade board built on role, not results. Every buy below has a stable or growing share of his offense; every sell has a role that is likely to shrink.

The board

Buy: Chase Brown

Brown's Week 3 line in Pittsburgh was 13 carries for 61 yards and two catches for eight yards, his season lows in carries, receptions and fantasy points. He has also gone two straight games without a touchdown. None of that changes his job. He was on the field for 71% of the snaps per FantasyPros, and PFF had him on 42 of 60. The Bengals scored 27 points in that game; Brown simply did not get the touchdowns.

That is the textbook buy: workload intact, scoring variance unlucky. The timing is also favorable. Cincinnati hosts Jacksonville this week in the game with the highest total on the board, and a big day there will kill the discount. If his manager is frustrated after Week 3, make the offer before Sunday.

The catch is Cincinnati's Week 6 bye. Buyers should plan around one zero, which is a reason to ask for a small discount rather than a reason to pass.

Buy: Tetairoa McMillan

McMillan's Week 3 was a pressure problem, not a role problem. Cleveland's defense blitzed Bryce Young, sacked him three times and intercepted him once, and McMillan caught 2 of 5 targets for 17 yards. The week before, he had 10 targets and 101 yards. Through two weeks, he and Jalen Coker had 18 targets apiece and combined for a 55% share of Carolina's targets, and Coker left the Cleveland game with a quad injury.

The angle here is the bye. Carolina is off in Week 5, and managers staring at a zero next week, especially those already short on receivers, are more willing to move a player whose last box score was bad. A buyer with bench depth can absorb the missing week and get a receiver with WR1-level target concentration for the rest of the year. Sunday night against Detroit is the last chance to buy before a possible rebound game.

Deeper buys: Carnell Tate and Bucky Irving

The fourth overall pick has quietly earned a full-time role in Tennessee. Tate leads the Titans with 20 targets, turned into a modest 13 catches for 123 yards and no touchdowns. His 25% target share and 84% snap rate are the numbers that matter. In the 12-7 loss to the Giants, he caught 6 of 9 targets for 58 yards and set season highs in targets, catches and yards.

The underlying signs point up. He averaged 3.16 yards of separation on his Week 3 targets, above the league-average mark of 2.99, and posted season bests in yards per route run (1.66) and average depth of target (11.0). The offense around him is the limiter, which is exactly why he is cheap. This is a buy in deeper redraft leagues and a priority in dynasty, where his price has not yet caught up to his role.

Bucky Irving is the cautious buy. He scored a season-low 7.8 PPR points against Minnesota on 15 carries for 46 yards and two catches for 12 yards, and his snap share fell to 51%. Coach Todd Bowles said there are no injury concerns, and Irving has handled at least 15 touches in every game this season.

The caution is Tampa Bay's quarterback situation. Baker Mayfield is out at least three weeks with a dislocated throwing thumb, and Jalon Daniels is starting. A weaker passing game could mean more carries for Irving, but it also means fewer scoring drives. He is a buy only at an RB2 price, not as a bounce-back RB1.

Sell: Aaron Jones

Jones has been Minnesota's workhorse with Jordan Mason on injured reserve. He played 81.8% of the snaps with 73.9% of the rushing attempts in Week 2, and he had 22 touches in Week 3 (17 carries for 58 yards plus five catches for 34 yards). The efficiency is fading, at 3.4 yards per carry in that game, and he has been playing through a banged-up knee.

The clock is the bigger issue. Mason had surgery on a fractured thumb and is first eligible to return in Week 7, coming out of Minnesota's Week 6 bye. Jones' window as a featured back may last only two more games. Minnesota is a heavy home favorite against Miami this week, and a strong Week 4 box score is the moment to sell. Target a running back with a longer runway or a receiver upgrade.

Sell: Tre Tucker

Tucker had a big week early, a 119-yard game with a touchdown, and he led the Raiders' receivers in snaps early in the season. But even before Week 3, his targets ran under 19% of the team's passes per one trade analysis, and the target picture just got more crowded. Brock Bowers returned in Week 3, and Tucker caught all four of his targets for 43 yards as a distant second option behind the tight end.

His value now is mostly the memory of that early spike. If a league-mate still sees him as a starter, move him for a running back handcuff or a receiver with a clearer role.

What to do in your league

Start with bye math. If you are buying McMillan, confirm your Week 5 lineup can survive without him. If you are buying Brown, do the same for Week 6, when Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are all off. Selling Jones before that Week 6 bye removes a zero from your lineup at the same time.

Next, make offers before Sunday's games for the buys and after Sunday's games for the sells. Brown and McMillan both have favorable spots this weekend that could close the window, while Jones' matchup against Miami could open one.

Weekly matchup calls are on /nfl/predictions, and the model's Week 4 game picks are at /blog/nfl-week-4-picks-2026. Use usage first and box scores second; three weeks of data are enough to trust a role, but not enough to trust a touchdown rate.