Best Bets for Tuesday, October 6: STL 57%, VGK 57% and 4 More Picks Across the MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
6 picks to win on the Model Cards for Tuesday, October 6, across the MLB and NHL, plus 9 props. The firmest call is St. Louis Blues at 57% (-142). Yesterday's cards: NFL 1-0, MLB 0-2, NHL 3-1. Every card is frozen at 11 AM ET at the lines then on offer, logged before the first pitch or puck drop, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL at CHI | Lean | STL | 57% | -142 | 56% | +1 | NHL | recent form +10.3, venue +5.7 |
| VGK at SEA | Lean | VGK | 57% | -180 | 62% | -5 | NHL | shot share (Corsi) +6.8, venue +4.5 |
| MIL at SD | Lean | SD | 55% | -136 | 55% | 0 | MLB | venue +2.4, starting pitchers +1.5 |
| NSH at TOR | Lean | TOR | 54% | -155 | 58% | -4 | NHL | streak +5.9, venue +2.4 |
| NYI at NYR | Lean | NYR | 53% | -155 | 58% | -5 | NHL | motivation +5.0, power play +3.9 |
| LAD at ATL | Lean | ATL | 51% | -109 | 49.9% | +2 | MLB | venue +3.3, power +0.9 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on LAD at ATL: it makes the game 7.8 runs against a posted 6.
Why each pick
St. Louis Blues over Chicago Blackhawks, 57%, -142. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: recent form (+10.3 points), venue (+5.7 points), goal margin (+4.9 points). The case against is streak (-5.8 points). The line STL -1.5, total 5.5. STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Connor Bedard, Andrew Mangiapane.
Vegas Golden Knights over Seattle Kraken, 57%, -180. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: shot share (Corsi) (+6.8 points), venue (+4.5 points), power play (+2.6 points). The case against is motivation (-4.5 points). The market is 5 points firmer on it than we are; we still have VGK as the more likely winner. The line VGK -1.5, total 6.5. VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Jacob Melanson.
San Diego Padres over Milwaukee Brewers, 55%, -136. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: venue (+2.4 points), starting pitchers (+1.5 points), run margin (+1.1 points). The case against is clutch hitting (-2.3 points). The line SD -1.5, total 7.5. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brandon Woodruff, Brian Fitzpatrick, Grant Anderson, Quinn Priester. SD out: Bryan Hoeing, Casey Mize, Jeremiah Estrada, Lucas Giolito, Luis Rengifo.
Toronto Maple Leafs over Nashville Predators, 54%, -155. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: streak (+5.9 points), venue (+2.4 points), shot margin (+1.1 points). The case against is shot share (Corsi) (-5.8 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have TOR as the more likely winner. The line TOR -1.5, total 5.5. NSH starter: Juuse Saros. NSH out: Justus Annunen. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz. TOR out: Dakota Joshua, Max Domi.
New York Rangers over New York Islanders, 53%, -155. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: motivation (+5.0 points), power play (+3.9 points), recent form (+2.6 points). The case against is streak (-5.9 points). The market is 5 points firmer on it than we are; we still have NYR as the more likely winner. The line NYR -1.5, total 5.5. NYI starter: Semyon Varlamov. NYI out: Mathew Barzal. NYR starter: Igor Shesterkin (projected). NYR out: Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
Atlanta Braves over Los Angeles Dodgers, 51%, -109. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: venue (+3.3 points), power (+0.9 points), bullpen (+0.8 points). The case against is streak (-1.4 points). The line ATL -1.5, total 6.5. LAD out: Ben Casparius, Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Eric Lauer, Gavin Stone. ATL out: Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Joey Wentz, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | Lock | VGK | VGK at SEA | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 93% | NHL |
| Nick Schmaltz | Play | UTA | UTA at NJD | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.6 | 77% | NHL |
| Nick Pivetta | Play | SD | MIL at SD | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 4.7 | 76% | MLB |
| Chris Sale | Play | ATL | LAD at ATL | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 7.2 | 73% | MLB |
| Steven Stamkos | Play | NSH | NSH at TOR | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 72% | NHL |
| Sebastian Aho | Play | CAR | CAR at MTL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 72% | NHL |
| Dustin May | Play | MIL | MIL at SD | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 4.5 | 72% | MLB |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Play | LAD | LAD at ATL | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 7 | 71% | MLB |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lean | MIN | MIN at BUF | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.2 | 67% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Games | SD; ATL | +233 | 28% | +255 |
| MLB | Props | Nick Pivetta over 3.5 strikeouts; Chris Sale over 5.5 strikeouts; Dustin May over 3.5 strikeouts; Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 5.5 strikeouts | +256 (fair) | 28% | +256 |
| MLB | Best of both | SD; ATL; Nick Pivetta over 3.5 strikeouts; Chris Sale over 5.5 strikeouts; Dustin May over 3.5 strikeouts | +742 | 11% | +798 |
| NHL | Games | STL; VGK; TOR; NYR | +618 | 9% | +964 |
| NHL | Props | Jack Eichel over 1.5 shots on goal; Nick Schmaltz over 2.5 shots on goal; Steven Stamkos over 2.5 shots on goal; Sebastian Aho over 2.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal | +298 (fair) | 25% | +298 |
| NHL | Best of both | STL; VGK; TOR; Jack Eichel over 1.5 shots on goal; Nick Schmaltz over 2.5 shots on goal; Steven Stamkos over 2.5 shots on goal | +739 | 9% | +991 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at the frozen lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK at SEA | NHL | VGK | 57% | 62% | -5 |
| NYI at NYR | NHL | NYR | 53% | 57% | -4 |
| NSH at TOR | NHL | TOR | 54% | 58% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLA at LAK | NHL | FLA without Barkov | 0.9 pts against FLA |
| STL at CHI | NHL | CHI without Bedard, Mangiapane; STL without Mailloux, Tucker | 0.9 pts toward STL |
| CAR at MTL | NHL | MTL without Guhle; CAR without Jarvis, Nikishin | 0.9 pts against CAR |
| NYI at NYR | NHL | NYR without Sykora; NYI without Barzal | 0.7 pts toward NYR |
| OTT at DET | NHL | DET without Larkin, Edvinsson; OTT without Sanderson, Zub | 0.5 pts against DET |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | NYI at NYR | NYR 53% (our pick) |
| FLA | NHL | road game 4 | FLA at LAK | FLA 51% (our pick) |
| OTT | NHL | second of a back to back | OTT at DET | DET 51% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 5)
NFL: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at NO | ATL | 50.3% | +110 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | Over 312.5 passing yards | 65% | 286 | Miss |
| Bijan Robinson | Over 65.5 rushing yards | 65% | 145 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (+136) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+396) missed.
MLB: 0-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 59% | -163 | Miss |
| NYY at TB | NYY | 54% | -131 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 77% | 2 | Miss |
| Gavin Williams | Over 6.5 strikeouts | 72% | 11 | Hit |
| Freddy Peralta | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 75% | 3 | Miss |
| Anthony Kay | Over 1.5 strikeouts | 94% | 0 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+185) missed; the props parlay (+154) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+418) missed.
NHL: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at TBL | TBL | 61% | -205 | Hit |
| WPG at PIT | PIT | 58% | -170 | Miss |
| SJS at DAL | DAL | 58% | -175 | Hit |
| OTT at BOS | OTT | 51% | -115 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 73% | - | Pending |
| Kyle Connor | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 65% | 6 | Hit |
| Evgeni Malkin | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 76% | 4 | Hit |
| Tim Stützle | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 86% | 3 | Hit |
| Jason Robertson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 89% | 4 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+594) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+541) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 3 since Oct 1 | 6-3 | -0.08 u | -0.9% | 6-3 (67%) | 0-1 |
| MLB | 5 since Sep 30 | 7-6 | -1.32 u | -10.1% | 13-7 (65%) | 0-4 |
| NHL | 5 since Sep 30 | 13-6 | +1.95 u | +10.3% | 17-8 (68%) | 2-3 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the card's frozen price; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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