Best Bets for Monday, October 5: TBL 61%, CLE 59% and 5 More Picks Across the NFL, MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
7 picks to win on the Model Cards for Monday, October 5, across the NFL, MLB and NHL, plus 11 props. The firmest call is Tampa Bay Lightning at 61% (-205). Yesterday's cards: NFL 5-2, MLB 1-1, NHL 4-0 with the parlay hitting. Every card is frozen at 11 AM ET at the lines then on offer, logged before the first pitch or puck drop, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at TBL | Play | TBL | 61% | -205 | 64% | -4 | NHL | shot share (Corsi) +5.6, venue +4.8 |
| CWS at CLE | Play | CLE | 59% | -163 | 59% | 0 | MLB | home/road split +1.5, venue +1.0 |
| WPG at PIT | Play | PIT | 58% | -170 | 60% | -2 | NHL | back to back +7.7, rest +6.7 |
| SJS at DAL | Lean | DAL | 58% | -175 | 61% | -3 | NHL | streak +9.4, venue +3.8 |
| NYY at TB | Lean | NYY | 54% | -131 | 54% | 0 | MLB | starting pitchers +1.0, clutch hitting +0.8 |
| OTT at BOS | Lean | OTT | 51% | -115 | 51% | 0 | NHL | shot share (Corsi) +5.9, head to head +2.3 |
| ATL at NO | Lean | ATL | 50.3% | +110 | 46% | +5 | NFL | injuries (NO without Etienne) +3.5, head to head +1.7 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on CWS at CLE: it makes the game 8.1 runs against a posted 6.5.
Why each pick
Tampa Bay Lightning over Philadelphia Flyers, 61%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: shot share (Corsi) (+5.6 points), venue (+4.8 points), goal margin (+3.8 points). The case against is home/road split (-3.1 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have TBL as the more likely winner. The line TBL -1.5, total 5.5. PHI starter: Dan Vladar. PHI out: Helge Grans, Nikita Grebenkin. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely).
Cleveland Guardians over Chicago White Sox, 59%, -163. Play on the MLB card. What drives it: home/road split (+1.5 points), venue (+1.0 points), starting pitchers (+0.7 points). The case against is clutch hitting (-0.7 points). The line CLE -1.5, total 6.5. CWS out: Jordan Leasure, Ky Bush, Luis Castillo, Mike Vasil, Prelander Berroa. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins.
Pittsburgh Penguins over Winnipeg Jets, 58%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.7 points), rest (+6.7 points), motivation (+4.9 points). The case against is streak (-3.0 points). The line PIT -1.5, total 6.5. WPG starter: Clay Stevenson. WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Elias Salomonsson, Walker Duehr. WPG is on the second of a back to back. PIT starter: Sergei Murashov. PIT out: Ryan Graves, Bryan Rust, Justin Brazeau.
Dallas Stars over San Jose Sharks, 58%, -175. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: streak (+9.4 points), venue (+3.8 points), power play (+3.5 points). The case against is recent form (-6.1 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DAL as the more likely winner. The line DAL -1.5, total 6.5. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger. DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys.
New York Yankees over Tampa Bay Rays, 54%, -131. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: starting pitchers (+1.0 points), clutch hitting (+0.8 points), travel (+0.5 points). The case against is venue (-3.9 points). The line NYY -1.5, total 6.5. NYY out: Clarke Schmidt, Fernando Cruz, Kervin Castro, Aaron Judge. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux.
Ottawa Senators over Boston Bruins, 51%, -115. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: shot share (Corsi) (+5.9 points), head to head (+2.3 points), schedule load (+2.0 points). The case against is streak (-5.9 points). The line OTT -1.5, total 5.5. OTT starter: Linus Ullmark. OTT out: Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson, Andre Burakovsky, Kurtis MacDermid. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman.
Atlanta Falcons over New Orleans Saints, 50.3%, +110. Lean on the NFL card. What drives it: injuries (NO without Etienne) (+3.5 points), head to head (+1.7 points), venue (+1.7 points). The case against is offense (-3.3 points). We like this side 5 points more than the price does. The line NO -1.5, total 47.5. ATL starter: Michael Penix Jr. ATL out: James Pearce Jr. NO starter: Tyler Shough. NO out: Travis Etienne Jr., Brock Rechsteiner, Jordyn Tyson, Anfernee Jennings, Carl Granderson. Crew: Land Clark has been tough on ATL (+1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-3 in 5 games).
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Kay | Lock | CWS | CWS at CLE | Over 1.5 strikeouts | 2.9 | 94% | MLB |
| Jason Robertson | Lock | DAL | SJS at DAL | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 89% | NHL |
| Tim Stützle | Lock | OTT | OTT at BOS | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.5 | 86% | NHL |
| Cam Schlittler | Play | NYY | NYY at TB | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 7.6 | 77% | MLB |
| Evgeni Malkin | Play | PIT | WPG at PIT | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.1 | 76% | NHL |
| Freddy Peralta | Play | TB | NYY at TB | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 4.7 | 75% | MLB |
| Macklin Celebrini | Play | SJS | SJS at DAL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 73% | NHL |
| Gavin Williams | Play | CLE | CWS at CLE | Over 6.5 strikeouts | 8.4 | 72% | MLB |
| Kyle Connor | Lean | WPG | WPG at PIT | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.3 | 65% | NHL |
| Bijan Robinson | Lean | ATL | ATL at NO | Over 65.5 rushing yards | 84.4 | 65% | NFL |
| Tyler Shough | Lean | NO | ATL at NO | Over 312.5 passing yards | 358.6 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Bijan Robinson over 65.5 rushing yards; Tyler Shough over 312.5 passing yards | +136 (fair) | 42% | +136 |
| NFL | Best of both | ATL; Bijan Robinson over 65.5 rushing yards; Tyler Shough over 312.5 passing yards | +396 | 21% | +370 |
| MLB | Games | CLE; NYY | +185 | 32% | +210 |
| MLB | Props | Anthony Kay over 1.5 strikeouts; Cam Schlittler over 5.5 strikeouts; Freddy Peralta over 3.5 strikeouts; Gavin Williams over 6.5 strikeouts | +154 (fair) | 39% | +154 |
| MLB | Best of both | CLE; NYY; Anthony Kay over 1.5 strikeouts; Cam Schlittler over 5.5 strikeouts; Freddy Peralta over 3.5 strikeouts | +418 | 18% | +464 |
| NHL | Games | TBL; PIT; DAL; OTT | +594 | 10% | +868 |
| NHL | Props | Jason Robertson over 1.5 shots on goal; Tim Stützle over 1.5 shots on goal; Evgeni Malkin over 1.5 shots on goal; Macklin Celebrini over 2.5 shots on goal; Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots on goal | +262 (fair) | 28% | +262 |
| NHL | Best of both | TBL; PIT; DAL; Jason Robertson over 1.5 shots on goal; Tim Stützle over 1.5 shots on goal; Evgeni Malkin over 1.5 shots on goal | +541 | 12% | +747 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at the frozen lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at NO | NFL | ATL | 51% | 47% | +4 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at TBL | NHL | TBL | 61% | 66% | -5 |
| SJS at DAL | NHL | DAL | 59% | 64% | -5 |
| WPG at PIT | NHL | PIT | 59% | 62% | -3 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at NO | NFL | NO without Etienne | 3.5 pts toward ATL |
| WPG at PIT | NHL | PIT without Rust; WPG without Salomonsson | 0.9 pts against PIT |
| SJS at DAL | NHL | DAL without Duchene | 0.9 pts against DAL |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | NHL | second of a back to back | WPG at PIT | PIT 59% (our pick is the other side) |
| SJS | NHL | 2.3K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | SJS at DAL | DAL 59% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 4)
NFL: 5-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN at BAL | BAL | 80% | -700 | Hit |
| MIA at MIN | MIN | 79% | -520 | Hit |
| LAC at SEA | SEA | 78% | -375 | Hit |
| NE at BUF | BUF | 69% | -310 | Miss |
| NYJ at CHI | CHI | 64% | -185 | Hit |
| DET at CAR | DET | 63% | -180 | Miss |
| DEN at SF | SF | 61% | -148 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | Over 88.5 rushing yards | 66% | 177 | Hit |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Over 74.5 rushing yards | 65% | 46 | Miss |
| Patrick Mahomes | Over 258.5 passing yards | 65% | 225 | Miss |
| Joe Burrow | Over 256.5 passing yards | 65% | 428 | Hit |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Over 4.5 receptions | 78% | 5 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+817) missed; the props parlay (+607) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+418) missed.
MLB: 1-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at LAD | LAD | 58% | -157 | Miss |
| SD at MIL | MIL | 56% | -143 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 77% | 4 | Miss |
| Blake Snell | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 74% | 5 | Hit |
| Michael King | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 82% | 6 | Hit |
| Josue De Paula | Over 0.5 hits | 72% | 0 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+178) missed; the props parlay (+201) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+504) missed.
NHL: 4-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK at VAN | VGK | 67% | -245 | Hit |
| CGY at SEA | SEA | 56% | -155 | Hit |
| UTA at NYR | NYR | 52% | -130 | Hit |
| FLA at ANA | ANA | 51% | +114 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 71% | 2 | Miss |
| Kyle Connor | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 69% | - | Pending |
| Cutter Gauthier | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 82% | 4 | Hit |
| Dylan Guenther | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | - | Pending |
| Nick Schmaltz | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 74% | - | Pending |
Tickets: the games parlay (+777) hit; the props parlay (+268) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 2 since Oct 1 | 5-3 | -1.18 u | -14.8% | 5-2 (71%) | 0-1 |
| MLB | 4 since Sep 30 | 7-4 | +0.68 u | +6.2% | 12-4 (75%) | 0-3 |
| NHL | 4 since Sep 30 | 9-6 | -1.01 u | -6.7% | 13-7 (65%) | 1-3 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the card's frozen price; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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