Baker Mayfield Is Out Again and Jalon Daniels Makes His Third Start as the Buccaneers Host Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers officially ruled out quarterback Baker Mayfield (right thumb) for Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers after he missed all three practices this week, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will make his third consecutive start. Mayfield dislocated his throwing thumb in Week 3 and has not played since. Head coach Todd Bowles said it is too early to tell whether Mayfield can return in Week 7 against Carolina, and reporting this week indicated he had not yet thrown a football since the injury.

For fantasy managers, the news locks in another week of a Tampa Bay offense built around the run, and it keeps the ceiling capped for the Buccaneers' receivers. For bettors, it is part of why this game carries one of the lowest totals on the Week 6 slate.

What Daniels has looked like

Daniels led the Buccaneers (1-4) to their first win of the season in Week 5, a 24-16 Thursday night upset in Dallas. He completed 19 of 25 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers, added 23 rushing yards, and was perfect on eight throws during a 15-play, 73-yard opening drive. He became the first undrafted rookie starting quarterback in the common draft era to win a game for a team that entered winless.

That stat line tells the story of how Tampa Bay is protecting him. The Buccaneers ran for 241 yards in Dallas, with Bucky Irving carrying 21 times for 165 yards and two touchdowns. Daniels' job is to stay on schedule, avoid mistakes and take what the defense gives him, and through two starts he has done that.

Bucky Irving is the fantasy centerpiece

Irving is the clearest start in this game. With a rookie at quarterback, the Buccaneers have leaned on him heavily, and his workload should again lead the offense. The concern is the matchup: Pittsburgh is a sturdier run defense than Dallas, and a script in which the Steelers build an early lead would put more of the game on Daniels' arm.

Even so, volume wins in fantasy. Irving is an RB1 this week based on touches alone, and his anytime touchdown price sat around +160 at BetMGM late in the week, a reflection of how central he is to the red-zone plan.

The receivers take the hit

Mike Evans left in free agency, which leaves Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. as the top targets. In Dallas, Egbuka caught six of nine targets for just 38 yards, though he salvaged the day with a 14-yard rushing touchdown. Godwin drew three targets for 37 yards. Receiver David Sills V (hamstring) has also been ruled out, which narrows the group further.

The pattern is predictable. A rookie throwing short, a run-heavy game plan and a low passing volume equal a lower ceiling for every Tampa Bay pass catcher. Egbuka remains a WR3 because of his target share and the occasional designed touch, but expectations should be modest. Godwin is a flex option in deep PPR leagues only.

The Pittsburgh side: Rodgers is rolling, Metcalf is the question

The Steelers (3-2) arrive off a 34-22 win over Indianapolis. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 10 touchdown passes through five games and has three straight games with three touchdown passes, which makes him a usable QB2 and a streaming option against a Tampa Bay defense missing safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib).

The variable is DK Metcalf, who was added to the injury report with an illness, sat out Friday and is listed as questionable. Illnesses are notoriously hard to forecast; players sometimes go from questionable to active without trouble, and sometimes miss on game day. If Metcalf plays, he is Rodgers' best outside target and a WR2. If he is out, the Steelers also lack Roman Wilson (finger) and Ben Skowronek (calf), both ruled out, which would compress targets toward the tight ends and Jaylen Warren.

Warren is the Steelers' engine either way. He leads the team with 410 rushing yards and 230 receiving yards, and head coach Mike McCarthy has called him the team's featured player. Rico Dowdle (toe) is expected back but may be limited to a backup role. Tampa Bay has allowed only about 72.8 rushing yards per game, so Warren's floor this week comes more from receptions than carries.

Betting angle

The market has the Steelers as a short road favorite, generally -2.5 with a few books at -3, and the total ranges from 39.5 to 40.5. That is a game the books expect to be grinding and low-scoring, which fits a rookie quarterback managing an offense against a veteran-led opponent.

The Metcalf decision is the swing factor for the side and for Rodgers' props. If he is ruled out on game day, expect the line to drift toward the key number of 3 or below, and expect the total to tick down.

The Verdexed angle and what to do

Lineup calls: start Irving and Warren as RB1 and RB2 types, start Metcalf if he is active, and treat Rodgers as a viable streamer. Hold Tampa Bay's receivers to WR3 and flex expectations until Mayfield returns.

Managers who drafted Mayfield should keep holding him. A dislocated throwing thumb is a timeline injury rather than a season-ender, and his return would immediately lift Egbuka and Godwin. That return is not imminent, though, so those with only one quarterback need a streamer for at least one more week, and potentially Week 7 as well.

For the model's view of this game, see the Week 6 picks at /blog/nfl-week-6-picks-2026 and the live board at /nfl/predictions.