49ers, Chiefs and Vikings Stay Unbeaten: What the Playoff and Division Markets Say After Five Weeks

Five weeks into the 2026 season, three teams are still unbeaten: the San Francisco 49ers (5-0), the Minnesota Vikings (5-0) and the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, with a Week 5 bye). The sportsbooks have reacted most sharply to San Francisco. At bet365, the 49ers' price to make the playoffs had shortened from -750 to the -2500 to -3000 range by October 13, the heaviest favorite in the NFC.

The rest of the picture is more crowded. The Super Bowl betting favorite entering Week 5, the Los Angeles Rams, are 2-3 after a 37-34 overtime loss to Buffalo on Monday night, and a cluster of AFC teams is priced as roughly one-in-three to make the field. Here is how the market sees the race heading into Week 6, and where the numbers create decisions for bettors.

The near-locks

Sportsbooks rarely price a team at -900 or shorter to make the postseason in October. Three teams are there now.

Implied probabilities are simple conversions from the American odds and include the sportsbook's margin.

San Francisco has scored 154 points and allowed 93 through five games, a +61 differential. Its Super Bowl price at FanDuel has been cut from +1800 at the open to +750. The Chiefs come off their bye as 8.5-point favorites against an 0-5 Chargers team. Jacksonville, which beat Philadelphia 19-17 on a last-second 57-yard field goal in London, leads the AFC South by three games over Houston and plays the Texans at Wembley on Sunday.

The Rams are the most interesting name on this list. A 2-3 team priced at -270 tells you the market still rates them as one of the league's best rosters, and they remain at or near the top of the Super Bowl board, at +700 at both DraftKings and FanDuel as of Monday. They host Arizona as a 12.5- to 13.5-point favorite this week.

The NFC North: Minnesota's market, not yet Minnesota's division

The Vikings are 5-0 and on bye this week. BetMGM lists Minnesota at +110 to win the NFC North, ahead of Detroit at +260, Chicago at +350 and Green Bay at +850.

Those prices say the market expects the division to tighten. Every other team in the division is 3-2, and the Vikings' remaining schedule has been rated among the league's toughest by opponent winning percentage. Green Bay is the outlier: its price is the longest despite a 3-2 record and a convincing 31-7 win over Chicago, largely because the defense has lost Edgerrin Cooper and Javon Hargrave for the season and Micah Parsons will not return in Week 6. Chicago's price depends heavily on whether Caleb Williams returns from his hamstring strain at Atlanta.

The AFC bubble

The more crowded race is in the AFC, where the seven-team field after Week 5 included Kansas City, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Buffalo, New England, Denver and Las Vegas. Behind them, the market sees six teams with a real but uncertain chance.

Several of those prices look generous relative to the standings. Houston is 1-4 and three games behind Jacksonville in the division, yet sits at +220, which reflects the market's respect for the roster (and the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade) more than the record. The Raiders hold the No. 7 seed at 3-2 but just lost 45-17 to New England and host Buffalo this week. Indianapolis is 2-3 after a 34-22 loss in Pittsburgh but gets winless Tennessee at home.

At the bottom, the market has largely written off the Chargers (+1550), the Titans (+4400) and the Dolphins (+9400). The Chargers' slide has come with a run of offensive line injuries, including Rashawn Slater's trip to injured reserve.

Week 6 leverage games

Several Week 6 games carry outsized weight for these markets:

Texans at Jaguars (London). A Houston win would cut the AFC South gap to two games and validate the market's +220 price. A Jacksonville win would push the Jaguars to 5-1 and make the Texans' path essentially wild card only.

Bills at Raiders. Buffalo is a 4.5- to 6.5-point road favorite. The Raiders' +230 price rests on holding a playoff spot they currently own; a loss to the Bills would drop them back into a pack of 3-3 teams.

Ravens at Browns. Baltimore is a 3.5- to 4.5-point favorite with Lamar Jackson's ankle the swing factor. A Browns upset would move Cleveland's +310 meaningfully.

Cowboys at Packers (Sunday night). Dallas (2-3) visits Green Bay (3-2) with NFC wild-card implications, and a total that climbed to about 52.5.

Commanders at 49ers (Monday night). Washington is 1-3-1 after its tie with the Giants and a 7.5-point underdog. San Francisco's playoff price has little room left to move; the more relevant market is the NFC No. 1 seed.

The Verdexed angle

The clearest read from these prices is that the market is still weighting preseason roster quality heavily against early records. That shows up on both ends: the 2-3 Rams at -270 and the 1-4 Texans at +220 are priced well ahead of their standings, while the 3-2 Packers at +850 in their division are priced behind theirs because of a specific, confirmed run of defensive injuries.

For bettors, futures at this stage are best used where a known factor is not fully in the price. Injury timelines (Parsons, Jackson, Williams) and schedule difficulty (Minnesota's back half) are those factors this week. For fantasy managers, the same markets flag which offenses are likely to be playing meaningful games in December, which matters for trade deadline decisions on players from teams like the Chargers and Titans. Verdexed's game-by-game probabilities for Week 6 live at /nfl/predictions, and the weekly picks piece is at /blog/nfl-week-6-picks-2026.

What's next

Week 6 runs from Thursday's Seahawks at Broncos game through Monday night in San Francisco, with Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota on bye. Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington are off in Week 7, so those four teams all play their last game for two weeks this weekend. Expect the AFC bubble prices in particular to move sharply after Sunday.