Deshaun Watson Beat the Steelers on a Last-Second Kick and the 3-1 Browns Lead the AFC North
By Verdexed NFL Desk
The Cleveland Browns are 3-1 and alone in first place in the AFC North. Deshaun Watson completed 24 of 33 passes for 268 yards, a touchdown and an interception on Thursday night, then moved the offense into range for Andre Szmyt, who drilled a career-long 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24. Pittsburgh falls to 2-2 after rallying from a 14-point deficit to tie the game in the final two minutes.
For fantasy managers, Thursday answered two questions that have hung over Cleveland since camp: whether Watson can sustain a functional passing game, and how much Quinshon Judkins is involved as a receiver. For Pittsburgh, it confirmed that Aaron Rodgers will throw when he has to, and that the Steelers' weekly ceiling depends on game script.
How it unfolded
Cleveland scored three touchdowns in the second quarter and led 21-7 late in the first half, carrying a 21-10 lead into the locker room. Watson threw for 181 yards before halftime, his biggest first half since Houston traded him to Cleveland in 2022.
Pittsburgh climbed back behind Rodgers, who finished 22 of 40 for 299 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. The tying score came with 1:44 left, a 3-yard touchdown pass to Pat Freiermuth, and Rodgers sneaked in the two-point conversion himself to make it 24-24.
That left Watson enough time. He went 4 for 5 for 46 yards on the final drive, including two completions to Jerry Jeudy for 27 yards, and absorbed a 4-yard sack with 19 seconds left before Szmyt's kick.
The box score that matters
Here are the fantasy-relevant lines from Thursday night, per the official box score and team releases.
| Player | Team | Line | Fantasy note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | 24/33, 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT | Best first half since 2022 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 17-53-1 rush, 6-43 rec | Career-high six catches |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 22/40, 299 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT | 40 attempts while chasing |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | 5-115 rec | Game-high receiving yards |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 17-93 rush, 3-33 rec | Led all rushers |
Fantasy fallout: Cleveland
Quinshon Judkins is the headline. His rushing efficiency was modest at 53 yards on 17 carries, but he punched in his first rushing touchdown of the season from 2 yards out and added a career-high six receptions for 43 yards. That combination of goal-line work and receiving volume is what separates an RB2 from a weekly RB1, and Judkins led the Browns with 96 yards from scrimmage. With Dylan Sampson on injured reserve, there is no committee to fear. Treat him as a locked-in RB1 in full-PPR formats until the receiving role shrinks.
Watson is not a weekly fantasy starter in one-quarterback leagues, but he is now a reasonable streaming option in favorable matchups and a viable superflex QB2. The key is that Cleveland's offense is no longer a fantasy dead zone, which lifts everyone attached to it.
Jerry Jeudy was Watson's go-to target on the winning drive. His weekly floor remains shaky in an offense that leans on the run, but the late-game trust is a signal worth noting for WR3 and flex decisions.
Fantasy fallout: Pittsburgh
DK Metcalf led all receivers with 115 yards on five catches. When Pittsburgh trails, Metcalf is the vertical outlet, and his weekly range is wide: a big-play WR2 in shootouts, a WR3 when the Steelers control the clock.
Jaylen Warren was the most efficient runner on the field with 93 yards on 17 carries plus 33 receiving yards. With Rico Dowdle ruled out with a foot injury, Warren again handled the lead role, and he has been a reliable RB2 whenever he has the backfield to himself. Monitor Dowdle's foot heading into Week 5, because his return would cut into Warren's volume.
Pat Freiermuth scored the tying touchdown and remains a touchdown-dependent TE2. Rodgers trusts him in the red zone, but there is not enough target volume to start him in shallow leagues.
Rodgers threw 40 times, but the two interceptions and the game script that forced the volume are the caveats. He is a matchup-based QB2.
Betting angle
Thursday opened with one of the lowest totals of the season and finished with 51 points, a reminder that both of these offenses have more life than the market priced in during the first three weeks. Cleveland has now won another game in the final minutes, and late-game results are a pattern bettors tend to overreact to in the short term. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 2-2 with an offense that has shown it can score in bunches when trailing.
The more durable takeaway is about totals. Both defenses gave up chunk plays, and if books continue to shade Browns and Steelers totals low based on early-season reputation, the over deserves a look in their Week 5 matchups.
The Verdexed model take
Verdexed's model reprices both teams after every result, and Thursday's game adds a meaningful data point on Cleveland's passing efficiency. For the model's view on each team's Week 5 game, check the NFL predictions page and the weekly picks piece when it publishes.
What's next
Both teams get extended rest before Week 5. The Browns' 3-1 start puts them in the division lead heading into October, and the key fantasy question is whether Judkins' receiving role holds. In Pittsburgh, Dowdle's foot and the Steelers' secondary following the Joey Porter Jr. trade to Dallas are the storylines to track.
What to do now: start Judkins with confidence, hold Watson as a streaming QB in deeper formats, keep Metcalf and Warren in lineups, and avoid chasing Freiermuth's touchdown on the waiver wire.