Harold Fannin Jr. Rest-of-Season Outlook: A 28 Percent Target Share and Shedeur Sanders Make the Browns Tight End a TE1

Harold Fannin Jr. enters Week 9 as the hottest tight end in fantasy, and the quarterback change in Cleveland may make him even more valuable. Over his last two games, Fannin has caught 16 passes for 245 yards on 21 targets, a 28 percent target share, capped by a career-high 10-catch, 154-yard game in the Browns' 27-6 loss at Pittsburgh. Now Shedeur Sanders, the quarterback who leaned on Fannin more than anyone during their rookie seasons, makes his first 2026 start Sunday in New Orleans with Deshaun Watson expected to be inactive.

The rest-of-season question is whether Fannin's surge is a two-game spike or a new baseline. The usage data and the Sanders connection both point toward the second answer.

The numbers behind the surge

Fannin's season-long line is good, not spectacular. Through eight games he has 35 catches for 411 yards and three touchdowns, according to the Browns and ESPN. The shape of that production is what matters: most of it came in the last two weeks.

He caught those 72 passes on 107 targets in 2025, and his 10 catches at Pittsburgh came on 12 targets. The Week 8 game made him the first Browns tight end with 150 receiving yards in a game since Ozzie Newsome in 1984, per ESPN's Daniel Oyefusi. It came in a game Cleveland lost badly, with the Browns held to two field goals and shut out in the second half, which says something about where the targets go when this offense is under pressure. He also drew nine targets against Tennessee in Week 7.

His season-long target share sits near 19 percent. The recent 28 percent rate is a large jump, and two games is a small sample. But the context around it is changing in his favor.

Why Shedeur Sanders matters

Fannin's 2025 rookie season is the best guide to what comes next. He set the Browns' franchise rookie record for receptions, finishing with a team-high 72 catches. In Sanders' seven starts last season, Fannin posted a 28 percent target share and drew half of the team's end-zone targets, per FantasyLife. CBS Sports noted that Fannin was Sanders' top target in 2025 by targets per route run.

That 28 percent figure is the same rate Fannin has hit over the last two weeks with Watson under center. In other words, Fannin's recent role and his 2025 role with Sanders line up almost exactly. That consistency is the strongest argument that his current usage is real, and not a product of two favorable game scripts.

There is a counterargument. Some analysts expect a Sanders start to lower both Fannin's floor and ceiling, because a less efficient quarterback means fewer completed passes and fewer red-zone trips overall. That is a fair concern for the offense as a whole. For Fannin specifically, a larger share of a slightly smaller pie is usually a good trade at tight end, where volume is scarce.

The Week 9 matchup and the market

The setup in New Orleans is favorable. The Saints have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season and one of the highest EPA-per-target marks against the position, per Yahoo Sports. FantasyPros ranks Fannin as a top-seven tight end for the week.

The betting market has moved against Cleveland since Sanders was named the starter. The Saints opened as roughly a 1.5-point favorite and are now listed at 3 at most books, with a total of 42.5 to 43.5. A lower-scoring environment with Cleveland trailing usually means more drop-backs, and for a tight end with this target share that is not a bad combination. Bettors looking at Fannin's receiving props should compare the posted lines against his recent target volume rather than his season averages, which understate his current role.

For the model's view on the game, see the Week 9 picks and the NFL predictions page.

The risks

Three things could derail the outlook.

The groin. Fannin popped up with a groin issue after the Pittsburgh game. Head coach Todd Monken said he would be fine, and CBS reported that Fannin appears to have avoided a major injury. Monitor how he moves Sunday, but there is no indication he is limited.

Ball security. Fannin fumbled on Cleveland's opening drive at Pittsburgh. That will not cost him targets on its own, but it is worth noting for a second-year player on a team fighting for a playoff spot.

Watson's return. Watson cleared the concussion protocol Saturday. If he reclaims the job in Week 10 or later, Fannin's usage should hold, since his last two weeks came with Watson starting. The quarterback situation is less of a threat to Fannin than it might appear.

Rest-of-season schedule

The Browns are 5-3 and fell to third in the AFC North after the loss to Pittsburgh, so there is no reason to expect them to stop competing. After Sunday in New Orleans, Cleveland hosts Houston in Week 10 and then goes on bye in Week 11, one of six teams off that week. That bye is the one planning wrinkle: managers who start Fannin need a backup tight end for Week 11, when the Packers, Patriots, Rams, Falcons and Seahawks are also off.

What to do in your league

If you roster Fannin, start him every week as a TE1. His current role puts him among the top tight ends in target share, and the quarterback change does not threaten it.

If he is on your league's waiver wire or a manager is shopping him, act now. A big game in New Orleans would close the window. Offer a flex-level running back or receiver rather than a starter, since the market has not fully caught up with how stable his role is.

Plan for Week 11. Add a streaming tight end with a good Week 11 matchup before the Browns' bye, so you are not scrambling in a week with six teams off.

What's next

Sunday's game in New Orleans is the first real test of the Sanders-to-Fannin connection in 2026. Watch his target share, his snap rate and whether he draws red-zone looks. If the 28 percent rate holds with Sanders, Fannin belongs in the top tier of fantasy tight ends for the rest of the season, regardless of who starts at quarterback in Cleveland after the bye.