The Model Cards
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:33 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
JAX@
TEN
Pick JAX83% to winat -700market 84%
LAR@
ARI
Pick LAR80% to winat -500market 80%
BUF@
NYJ
Pick BUF77% to winat -425market 78%
SEA@
LV
Pick SEA72% to winat -305market 72%
SF@
DAL
Pick SF69% to winat -218market 66%
KC@
ATL
Pick KC68% to winat -175market 61%
HOU@
CLE
Pick HOU68% to winat -238market 68%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
JAX + LAR + BUF + SEA + SF + KC + HOU
+632
combined odds
11.9%
chance it all hits
-12.8%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Christian McCaffrey o55.5 rushing yards + Joe Burrow o285.5 passing yards + Patrick Mahomes o280.5 passing yards + Brock Purdy o275.5 passing yards + Josh Allen o222.5 passing yards
+747
fair odds
11.8%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
JAX + LAR + BUF + Christian McCaffrey o55.5 + Joe Burrow o285.5 + Patrick Mahomes o280.5
+507
combined odds
14.2%
chance it all hits
-13.6%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Joe BurrowCIN · QB
Over 285.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 328.3
Patrick MahomesKC · QB
Over 280.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 322.5
Brock PurdySF · QB
Over 275.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 316.5
Josh AllenBUF · QB
Over 222.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 255.3
Christian McCaffreySF · RB
Over 55.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 71.9
Changes before puck drop
- 12:33 PM ET: prop in: Christian McCaffrey over 55.5 rushing yards (65.5%); prop out: Kenneth Walker III over 81.5 rushing yards
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.