The Model Cards
Monday, October 12, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:17 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
BUF@
LAR
Pick LAR56% to winat -175market 61%
Props ticket2 overs
Matthew Stafford o259.5 passing yards + Josh Allen o198.5 passing yards
+135
fair odds
42.5%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
Over 259.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 298.5
Josh AllenBUF · QB
Over 198.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 228
Changes before puck drop
- 12:17 PM ET: LAR -185 to -175
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.