Tarik Skubal Opens the NLDS Against a Braves Bullpen Game and the Dodgers Are -230 to Advance
By Verdexed MLB Desk
Tarik Skubal will start Game 1 of the National League Division Series for the Dodgers on Saturday at Dodger Stadium, and the Braves are answering with a bullpen game. Los Angeles made the Skubal decision official Friday, choosing the deadline acquisition over reigning World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the market reacted the way you would expect: the Dodgers are roughly -230 to win the best-of-five series and around -217 on the Game 1 moneyline. First pitch is 6 p.m. ET.
Why Skubal and not Yamamoto
The Dodgers acquired Skubal from Detroit at the trade deadline for prospects Zahir Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith, per MLB.com. The two-time Cy Young winner finished the regular season with a 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts over 158.2 innings across 26 starts between the two clubs. In 10 starts in a Dodgers uniform he posted a 2.61 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 62 innings, and he closed the year with seven shutout innings in San Francisco.
The logic is about Game 5. Starting Skubal on Saturday lines him up to start a potential winner-take-all Game 5 on regular rest, per ESPN and Yahoo Sports. Yamamoto threw a lengthy simulated game Wednesday and is expected to start Game 3 in Atlanta on Tuesday. All signs point to Blake Snell, another left-hander, starting Game 2 on Sunday, per Dodgers Beat.
That lefty-heavy alignment is deliberate. Dodgers Beat noted that Atlanta posted a 91 wRC+ against left-handed pitching during the regular season, tied for 24th in the majors. Skubal and Snell back to back is the Dodgers pressing on the softest spot in the Braves' lineup.
Atlanta's Game 1 problem
The Braves earned this series by closing out the Phillies, but the cost was their rotation. Chris Sale started Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and then came out of the bullpen to close the clincher, so he is not available to start before Game 2 at the earliest. Tyler Mahle lines up no earlier than Game 3, per Yahoo Sports and The Big Lead. Bryce Elder and Martin Perez remain unavailable with injuries.
That leaves a bullpen game. Atlanta had not formally named a starter as of Friday, but left-hander Brent Suter is the expected opener, the same approach the Braves used with Ray Kerr in the Phillies clincher. Grant Holmes and J.R. Ritchie are among the arms who could cover bulk innings, and manager Walt Weiss has acknowledged he will lean heavily on his bullpen in the first two games.
The one note in Atlanta's favor: the Braves won five of their six regular-season meetings with the Dodgers, per Fox Sports. That head-to-head edge has not moved the series price much, because none of those games featured Skubal in a Dodgers uniform facing an Atlanta staff this depleted.
| Game | Date | Site | Time (ET) | Expected LAD starter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Sat., Oct. 3 | Dodger Stadium | 6 p.m. | Tarik Skubal (LHP) |
| Game 2 | Sun., Oct. 4 | Dodger Stadium | 8 p.m. | Blake Snell (LHP), expected |
| Game 3 | Tue., Oct. 6 | Truist Park | 6 p.m. | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), expected |
| Game 4* | Wed., Oct. 7 | Truist Park | TBD | TBD |
| Game 5* | TBD | Dodger Stadium | TBD | Skubal lined up |
*If necessary.
Ohtani's health
Shohei Ohtani is the other storyline for fantasy players. He went on the injured list Sept. 11 (backdated to Sept. 8) with left knee soreness and right biceps inflammation, the first IL stint of his Dodgers career, and he returned for the final five games of the regular season. Knee soreness kept him off the mound after July 3. On Friday he told reporters his swing was in a better place after some small adjustments and that he would be ready for Game 1. Treat him as a full-go hitter; his pitching role in this series is not a factor.
DFS and player props
Skubal is the top pitcher on Saturday's Division Series slate. His Dodgers strikeout rate (70 in 62 innings) is better than one per inning, and he faces a lineup that has been below average against lefties. A strikeout over is the natural prop angle, and in single-game DFS formats he belongs in the captain or MVP slot unless the price is prohibitive. The risk is length rather than quality: with a 6 p.m. ET start and a potential Game 5 assignment in mind, the Dodgers have no reason to push him deep if the game is decided early.
Atlanta hitters are hard to trust against him. Right-handed power such as Ronald Acuna Jr. is worth a look in tournament builds as a contrarian one-off, but a Braves stack against Skubal is a low-percentage play, and left-handed Braves bats should be faded entirely in this matchup.
The Dodgers' side flips. A Braves bullpen game means Los Angeles hitters will see a parade of relievers, some of them working on short rest after the Wild Card round. Bullpen games tend to suppress home runs early when the opener is effective and then open up in the middle innings when lesser arms take over. Dodgers hitters with strong splits against left-handed openers can be paired with the bulk-inning matchups that follow. Ohtani is the core one-off play, and a Dodgers stack is the chalk build on this slate.
Betting angle
Fox Sports' opening numbers had the Dodgers -230 and the Braves +190 to win the series. For Game 1, the Dodgers were around -217 with Atlanta +177, the run line was Dodgers -1.5, and the total was 8. Correct-score pricing had a Dodgers win in four games (3-1) as the shortest outcome at +275, followed by 3-2 at +340 and a sweep at +390; Atlanta 3-2 was +475 and 3-1 was +550.
The interesting wrinkle is that a 3-1 Dodgers result is priced shorter than a sweep, which reflects the market's respect for Sale and Mahle once they are available in Games 2 through 4. The Braves' path is narrow: steal one of the first two in Los Angeles, then lean on a rested Sale and Mahle at Truist Park. Bettors who like Atlanta are better served waiting for a Game 1 Braves loss, which would push the series price longer, than buying now at +190.
| Market | Dodgers | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Series price (open) | -230 | +190 |
| Game 1 moneyline | -217 | +177 |
| Win 3-0 | +390 | Not listed |
| Win 3-1 | +275 | +550 |
| Win 3-2 | +340 | +475 |
The Verdexed angle
The biggest inputs for this series are rotation depth and handedness. Los Angeles can throw two elite lefties at a lineup that struggles with them, while Atlanta is running a bullpen game in the opener and carrying a tired relief corps into Sunday. A clean Suter-led bullpen effort through five innings would change the series math more than any single at-bat. For the model's view of Game 1 and the series, see /mlb/predictions and today's board at /blog/mlb-picks-2026-10-03.
What's next
Game 2 is Sunday at 8 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium, with Snell expected for Los Angeles and Sale a possibility for Atlanta if he recovers in time from closing out the Phillies. The series moves to Truist Park for Game 3 on Tuesday, with Yamamoto expected to start, and Game 4 would follow Wednesday if needed. If it reaches Game 5 back in Los Angeles, Skubal is lined up to start it.