Tarik Skubal Free Agency: The Mets and Dodgers Lead the Bidding, a Lockout Deadline Looms and What Each Landing Spot Means for His 2027 Fantasy Value

Tarik Skubal is the top free agent on the MLB market, and the bidding is taking shape. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel, after speaking with 27 industry insiders, reported that the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are viewed as the primary bidders for the left-hander. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that the expectation is Skubal will sign before the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, when a lockout would freeze transactions. For fantasy managers planning 2027 drafts, his landing spot will shape his value more than almost any other offseason decision.

The market so far

Free agents became available on October 29, and teams could begin signing them on November 2. The market has been quiet in the early days, with reports around November 5 noting that no free agent had yet signed a major league deal. That is normal for the first week, but the looming CBA expiration compresses the calendar this winter.

The window between the GM meetings and December 1 is where a deal of Skubal's size is most likely to come together. A potential lockout gives both sides a reason to move faster than a typical megadeal timeline.

The suitors

Mets: Owner Steve Cohen is expected to push for a long-term deal, though SNY's Chelsea Janes reported that president of baseball operations David Stearns would be reluctant to commit to one. That tension between owner and front office is the biggest variable in New York's pursuit.

Dodgers: Los Angeles is the other primary bidder. The Dodgers have shown a willingness to pay for elite talent and have the financial flexibility to compete for any player.

Sleepers: McDaniel listed the Padres, Angels and White Sox as sleepers. San Diego has a clear need after Michael King and Nick Pivetta hit free agency, leaving the rotation in need of an anchor, though the Padres are not considered a primary bidder.

The contract

Projections vary widely. One outlet expects a deal of six to nine years at $40 million to $50 million per season. Another predicts eight years and $410 million, and a third projects a total around $400 million. ESPN expects the final deal to exceed the top-tier pitching benchmark set by previous record contracts. Whatever the final number, Skubal is likely to sign one of the largest contracts ever given to a pitcher.

Fantasy outlook by landing spot

Skubal, the two-time reigning American League Cy Young Award winner entering 2026, is an elite fantasy starter wherever he signs. But the landing spot affects the categories that separate an ace from a top-three overall pitcher.

Dodgers: The best fantasy scenario. Los Angeles has a strong offense that provides consistent run support, which matters for wins, and a defense and organizational pitching infrastructure that tends to maximize pitcher performance. The only concern is the Dodgers' history of managing starters' workloads carefully, which could slightly cap innings and strikeouts.

Mets: A strong scenario. Citi Field has played as a pitcher-friendly park, which supports ERA and WHIP, and a deep Mets lineup would provide run support. Skubal would be the clear ace, which usually means a full workload.

Padres: A good scenario for ratios. Petco Park is one of the more pitcher-friendly environments in the league, which would support his ERA and WHIP. Run support depends on the rest of San Diego's offseason, which is uncertain given the rotation losses.

Angels or White Sox: A weaker scenario for wins, since both teams have struggled to contend recently. Skubal's strikeouts and ratios would still be elite, but win totals would likely suffer, which matters in head-to-head categories and roto formats.

Draft strategy for 2027

Skubal's value in 2027 drafts will depend on two factors: where he signs and when. If he signs before December 1, his ADP will settle early and reflect the landing spot. If the lockout hits before he signs, he could remain unsigned into a frozen market, which would create uncertainty that savvy drafters can exploit in early best-ball and draft-and-hold leagues.

In either case, he should be among the first starting pitchers off the board. The difference between the best and worst landing spots is mostly about wins and innings, not his skills.

Betting angle

For futures bettors, Skubal's destination will reshape award and team markets. A Dodgers signing would strengthen the favorite's position in World Series futures. A Mets signing would make New York a stronger contender in the National League. And whichever team lands him becomes an early Cy Young candidate market to watch for 2027. Wait for the signing before placing futures, since the landing spot drives the value.

What's next

The GM meetings next week are the first major checkpoint. Watch for reports of formal offers from the Mets and Dodgers, and for any sign that a sleeper team is making a serious push. With the December 1 CBA expiration looming, the Skubal market should move faster than a typical winter, and his signing will set the tone for the rest of the offseason.