Red Sox Turn Aggressive Buyers: Zach Neto, CJ Abrams and the Shortstop Boston Actually Needs

The Red Sox intend to be aggressive buyers before the August 3 deadline, and the position they keep returning to is shortstop. Boston has interest in the Angels' Zach Neto, a player it also targeted last offseason, and has been linked to Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams as well. The Red Sox have surged into the third American League wild card spot, and the roster hole is obvious: Trevor Story has been out since sports hernia surgery in May, leaving Boston to cover the position by committee.

Boston has already made one move, acquiring Curtis Mead from Washington for left-hander Connelly Early. That was a depth addition. Neto or Abrams would be something else entirely.

Why Neto is the target

Neto is 25 and controllable, which separates him from most of what is available this week. He ranks fifth in bWAR among players who have logged at least half their games at shortstop since the start of 2024, and his 19 home runs this season rank third among shortstops. That combination, a young everyday shortstop with power and years of control, almost never reaches the deadline market, and the Angels' willingness to listen is the reason this is a story at all.

The cost follows from the control. A rental shortstop costs prospects. A controllable one costs the kind of prospects a front office spends a year explaining. Boston has the system depth to do it, and the fact that Neto was a target last winter suggests the internal valuation is already settled.

The Trevor Story complication

Story's status is the variable that determines how badly Boston needs this. He underwent sports hernia surgery on May 22 after abdominal discomfort dating to spring training, having appeared in 41 games. He was placed on the 60-day injured list with an initial timeline in the twelve-week range, and he has since been described as ahead of schedule, with more recent reporting suggesting a return closer to eight weeks and a target in the late July to early August window. Other reporting has been more conservative, putting him closer to mid-August.

The honest read is that the timeline is not settled, which is precisely why a front office in a wild card race would rather buy a shortstop than wait for one. Story has resumed hitting and has progressed to throwing and light fielding work, both of which are real markers, but a player returning from abdominal surgery at 33 in the middle of a pennant race is not a plan a contender should rely on alone.

The fantasy fallout

For Neto, a move to Boston would be a genuine upgrade. He would leave a lineup that has given him little support for one that scores, and the park change favors a right-handed hitter with pull-side power. His runs and RBI projections would rise immediately, and his batting average has a reasonable chance of following.

For Abrams, the calculus is different. He is the speed-and-contact profile rather than the power one, and his fantasy value is more dependent on batting order position than on park. A Boston acquisition would likely slot him near the top of a good lineup, which would be excellent for runs and steals.

For Story, the fantasy read gets worse either way. A Boston shortstop acquisition pushes him toward a utility role on return, and a player coming off abdominal surgery who is also losing his position is a difficult asset to project. Managers still holding Story on an IL spot should be preparing to move on if Boston lands a shortstop.

The Verdexed model take

Verdexed's model reads the Red Sox as the American League team whose playoff odds are most sensitive to a single acquisition, because the gap between their current shortstop production and league average is the largest position-level deficit on any wild card contender. That is what makes an aggressive deadline rational for them rather than a reach.

On the individual projections, the model's read is that Neto's rest-of-season value would rise more from a move to Boston than Abrams' would, because Neto's power profile gains more from the park and lineup context than Abrams' speed profile does. Both would improve. The gap between them narrows in points leagues and widens in categories formats that reward stolen bases.

The betting angle

Boston's playoff odds and its remaining win total are the markets that move on this. Wild card races in late July are the single most volatile market in baseball because a two-game swing changes seeding scenarios across four teams, and books tend to reprice slowly in the days immediately after a deadline addition.

The Angels side is the fade. A team that trades a controllable young shortstop in July has announced its intentions for the remainder of the season, and the market takes roughly a week to fully process what a selling roster looks like.

What to do in your league

If you roster Neto, hold and hope. A trade to a contender is close to a pure upgrade and the downside case is that he stays in Anaheim and produces what he has been producing.

If you roster Story, the window to move him is now, before Boston's plans clarify. A manager in your league is still valuing him on name and on the assumption of an everyday job at shortstop. That assumption may not survive the week.

What's next

Boston's front office has six days. The most likely sequence is that the shortstop market moves before the catcher market, because the teams pursuing shortstops have fewer fallback options. Watch whether the Red Sox engage on Abrams and Neto simultaneously: a club working both ends of a thin market is usually a club that expects to land one of them.