Phillies at Braves Game 3: Wheeler, Nola and a Taxed Atlanta Bullpen Decide the Last NL Spot

The Phillies are still alive. Alec Bohm hit a two-out solo homer off Didier Fuentes in the 10th inning on Wednesday, and Philadelphia beat the Braves 4-3 at Truist Park to even the NL Wild Card Series at a game apiece. Game 3 is Thursday at 8 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, and it is the only playoff game of the day after the other three Wild Card Series all ended in sweeps.

The winner flies to Los Angeles for NLDS Game 1 against the Dodgers on Saturday. The loser goes home. With Philadelphia expected to start Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler available on short rest, and Atlanta planning a bulk outing from Grant Holmes, this is a bullpen game for both sides in everything but name.

How Game 2 flipped

Philadelphia scored first when Trea Turner doubled and scored on a Bryce Harper single in the first. Atlanta answered right away: Ronald Acuña Jr. walked, stole second, stole third and scored on a Matt Olson single. From there, Tyler Mahle and Cristopher Sánchez traded zeros.

Mahle was outstanding, which made what followed harder on Atlanta. He held the Phillies to one run over seven innings with six strikeouts, using his splitter to strike out both Kyle Schwarber and Harper in the fifth, and he nearly did not pitch at all after feeling an abdominal pull during his pregame warmup. The Braves took a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the seventh when Harper misplayed a routine Drake Baldwin fly ball that bounced off his glove onto the right-field warning track.

Then Dylan Lee came on in the eighth, and Schwarber and Harper hit back-to-back homers to tie it. Bohm won it in the 10th, and Andrew Painter, making his postseason debut out of the bullpen, threw three scoreless innings to close it, ending the game on a 99 mph fastball that an ABS challenge turned into strike three.

Philadelphia's pitching plan

Interim manager Don Mattingly said Monday that Nola was setting up to start Game 3, while noting that plans can change. Nola went 7-12 with a 4.67 ERA, a difficult year by his standards. Wheeler, 14-5 with a 3.00 ERA, threw 97 pitches on Sunday, so any appearance Thursday comes on three days' rest. If he does not start, he is expected to pitch in relief.

Mattingly described it as all hands on deck. Other than Sánchez, who threw 116 pitches over 6 2/3 innings on Wednesday (eight more than any regular-season outing), nearly the whole staff is expected to be available. That includes Jesús Luzardo, who started Game 1, and Painter after his three-inning outing. Closer Jhoan Duran, who gave up Austin Riley's go-ahead three-run homer in Game 1, is the other name to watch in the late innings.

The upside for Philadelphia is depth. A Nola start with Wheeler behind him gives the Phillies two starters' worth of innings before they reach the back of the bullpen, and Luzardo offers a left-handed option against Olson and the left-handed bats in Atlanta's lineup.

Atlanta's pitching plan

Holmes, 10-6 with a 3.44 ERA, is expected to handle the bulk of the innings, though the Braves had not said whether he will start or follow an opener. Left-handers Ray Kerr and Brent Suter are the most likely openers if manager Walt Weiss goes that route, which would give Atlanta a lefty for the top of a lineup that features Schwarber and Harper.

The concern is the back end. Closer Raisel Iglesias and his top setup men, Fuentes and Lee, pitched in both of the first two games. All three should be available Thursday, but Lee and Fuentes just gave up the three homers that cost Atlanta Game 2. Robert Suarez, who posted a 0.56 ERA in 31 appearances before an elbow problem in June, could be a bigger part of the plan than anyone expected a week ago.

Betting angle

The market sees this as close to a coin flip. One widely posted line had the Phillies at -118 and the Braves at +100, while the Braves opened as slight favorites around -113 at another book with Philadelphia at -104. The total is 7.5, with the under shaded at -118. The move toward Philadelphia since the opener reflects the Wheeler factor and the hit Atlanta's bullpen took on Wednesday.

The best way to frame the game is by innings. Nola against Holmes or an opener is a fair fight for the first three or four innings. After that, Philadelphia's edge is Wheeler, Luzardo and Painter in relief, while Atlanta's edge is home field and Iglesias at the end. If you like the Phillies, the full-game price is where Wheeler's value shows up. If you like the Braves, a first-five-innings angle avoids a Philadelphia bullpen that suddenly has starters in it.

On the total, two lineups that combined for seven runs on Wednesday, with three of them on late homers, face a lot of high-leverage relievers on Thursday. The under has the slight shade, which fits how winner-take-all games often play once the best arms take over.

Fantasy and DFS notes

Thursday is a one-game slate, which makes it a showdown contest. Nola carries the most uncertainty of any starter in recent memory for a playoff opener because his outing could be very short. Holmes is in the same spot. Neither is a safe captain choice.

Among hitters, Harper, Schwarber and Bohm all homered on Wednesday, and Acuña's speed creates points on his own. Riley, who hit the Game 1 winner off Duran, is the Atlanta bat with the most leverage if Duran pitches late.

What's next

The winner opens the NLDS at Dodger Stadium on Saturday at 1 p.m. PT on Fox, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto considered the likely Game 1 starter for Los Angeles. Whichever team survives Thursday will arrive with a worn bullpen and its top starters used, which is the cost of going three games.

Thursday's model probability for Phillies-Braves is at /mlb/predictions, and the daily card is at /blog/mlb-picks-2026-10-01.