Patriots at Bears Preview: Caleb Williams Gets a Banged-Up New England Line on Thursday Night Football

The Week 7 slate opens Thursday at Soldier Field with two 4-2 teams on a short week, and the injury reports point in opposite directions. Caleb Williams is off the Chicago Bears' injury report after completing 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards and a touchdown in a 31-23 win at Atlanta, his first game since a hamstring injury cost him three starts. The New England Patriots arrive after a 26-19 win over the Jets that cost them receiver Romeo Doubs (shoulder, injured reserve) and left three offensive linemen hurt.

Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Sportsbooks opened Chicago as a short home favorite. Most books list the Bears at 2.5 points, ESPN shows 3, and some early money pushed it to 3.5 at certain shops. The total sits between 49.5 and 50.5 depending on the book.

Two different 4-2 teams

Chicago's win in Atlanta was the cleanest version of the Ben Johnson offense this season. Williams completed his first 12 passes and finished without a turnover. Luther Burden III led the team with 8 catches for 95 yards on 8 targets, Colston Loveland added 6 catches for 65 yards and a score on 7 targets, and D'Andre Swift punched in two short touchdowns despite gaining only 44 yards on 16 carries. The Bears led 31-7 in the fourth quarter before Atlanta scored 16 straight points, so the final margin flatters the Falcons.

New England's win was messier. Drake Maye went 18 of 32 for 235 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover or a sack, but Mike Vrabel said afterward that his team tried to beat itself. Fumbles by TreVeyon Henderson and DeMario Douglas let the Jets climb back into a one-score game, and A.J. Brown, in his first game back from injured reserve, caught 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards with several drops. It was the Patriots' third straight win, though it was not a convincing one.

The injury report

Both teams held walkthroughs Monday, so the first reports are estimates. The table below lists the notable names from those estimates and the roster moves.

The New England list is longer and more meaningful. Moses, Vera-Tucker and Brown all left Sunday's game, and the Patriots finished that game with a patched-together front. Moses reportedly has a chance to play Thursday, but losing both starting guards would leave Maye working behind backups against a Chicago defense playing at home. Defensive tackle Joshua Farmer and kicker Andy Borregales also did not practice. On the Chicago side, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that Jackson is considered week-to-week, so his status for Thursday is in doubt. Monangai has not played since a turf toe injury in Week 4, which keeps Swift in a lead role.

Fantasy start/sit

Start Caleb Williams. He is back to full health, he leads the league in completion percentage, and his first game back produced a top-tier passing line without a single giveaway. A home game with a total near 50 puts him in the QB1 range for a week when Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are all on bye.

Start Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. With DJ Moore traded to Buffalo, Burden and Loveland combined for 15 targets on Sunday while Rome Odunze saw 4. Burden is a confident WR2 in PPR formats, and Loveland belongs in the top tier of tight ends this week. Odunze is a boom-or-bust WR3 until his target share recovers.

Start D'Andre Swift as an RB2. The rushing efficiency was poor in Atlanta, but he owns the goal-line work while Monangai is out, and Chicago projects to lead at home.

Start Drake Maye, with a lower floor than usual. Maye has been excellent in the red zone, but the offensive line injuries are the biggest threat to his week. If both guards are ruled out, expect more quick throws and fewer deep shots. He remains a QB1 in a bye-heavy week.

Start A.J. Brown. The box score was ugly, but the usage was not. Brown played 76.5% of the snaps, ran a route on 97.1% of dropbacks and led the team with a 28.1% target share in his first game back, per PlayerProfiler's charting. With Doubs on IR, the volume should only rise.

Flex DeMario Douglas, sit the backfield if you can. Douglas caught a 9-yard touchdown and absorbed Doubs' work on Sunday, which makes him a PPR flex option. Rhamondre Stevenson played 41 snaps (60%) to Henderson's 16 (24%) but managed only 36 yards on 14 carries, and third-stringer Corey Kiner took 11 carries late. Vrabel described the backfield as a hot-hand situation. Stevenson is a low-end flex at best, and Henderson is a bench hold until his ankle allows more work.

The Verdexed angle

The market is pricing this as close to a coin flip with a small home edge, and the desk agrees with the direction. Chicago has the healthier quarterback, the healthier line and a receiving corps that just had its best game of the season. New England's case rests on Maye's efficiency, and that is harder to sustain behind backup guards on four days of rest.

The total is the more interesting number. The Bears' passing game is clicking, and Brown's volume adds a second path for New England, which supports the over. The Patriots' line injuries cut the other way, since drive-killing sacks and holding penalties shorten games. The desk's lean is toward Chicago on the side, with the total too close to call until Wednesday's practice report shows whether Vera-Tucker and Brown can go. For the model's view of this game and the rest of the slate, see Verdexed's Week 7 picks and the full board on Verdexed's predictions page.

What's next

The first official practice reports come Tuesday and Wednesday, and Thursday's game designations follow on Wednesday because of the short week. The three names that matter most are Moses, Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown for New England, followed by Jackson for Chicago. If two or more Patriots linemen are ruled out, downgrade Maye slightly and expect Chicago's price to move toward a full field goal.

For fantasy managers, the Thursday kickoff also creates a lineup problem. Monangai and Henderson are the injury-tied players to watch, and anyone relying on a bye-week replacement should lock Thursday players only after Wednesday's report. Everyone else in this game should be in lineups.