NHL Picks for October 6: STL 58% Leads a 9-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
9 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-06. The firmest call is STL at 58% over CHI; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 3. Season to date the model is 23-20 (53.5%) on graded picks, Brier 0.235.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL at CHI | STL | 58% | 57% | 0 | -148 | STL -1.5 | 5.5 | STL -142 |
| VGK at SEA | VGK | 57% | 62% | -5 | -180 | VGK -1.5 | 6.5 | VGK -180 |
| NSH at TOR | TOR | 54% | 58% | -4 | -155 | TOR -1.5 | 5.5 | TOR -155 |
| UTA at NJD | NJD | 53% | 54% | -1 | -130 | NJD -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| NYI at NYR | NYR | 53% | 57% | -4 | -148 | NYR -1.5 | 5.5 | NYR -155 |
| CAR at MTL | CAR | 52% | 52% | 0 | -120 | CAR -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| FLA at LAK | FLA | 51% | 53% | -1 | -122 | FLA -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
| OTT at DET | DET | 51% | 50.0% | +1 | -110 | DET -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
| MIN at BUF | BUF | 50.2% | 49.6% | +1 | -108 | MIN -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Where the model and the market disagree
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:
VGK over SEA: we make it 57%, the market 62% (a 5-point gap).
TOR over NSH: we make it 54%, the market 58% (a 4-point gap).
NYR over NYI: we make it 53%, the market 57% (a 4-point gap).
Game by game
St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks: STL 58%
The model has STL at 58% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: recent form (+10.3 points), venue (+5.7 points), goal margin (+4.9 points). The case against is streak (-5.8 points). The line is STL -1.5, total 5.5.
| STL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.5 | -3.3 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Last five | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Connor Bedard, Andrew Mangiapane.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Snuggerud | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Dylan Holloway | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Joel Hofer | saves | 20.3 | 18.5 or lower | 21.5 or higher |
| Joel Hofer | goals against | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Pavel Buchnevich | shots on goal | 1.5 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken: VGK 57%
The model has VGK at 57% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+6.8 points), venue (+4.5 points), power play (+2.6 points). The case against is motivation (-4.5 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| VGK | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.0 | +2.7 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Last five | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Jacob Melanson.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | assists | 1.5 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jared McCann | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Bobby McMann | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mark Stone | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Reilly Smith | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs: TOR 54%
The model has TOR at 54% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: streak (+5.9 points), venue (+2.4 points), shot margin (+1.1 points). The case against is shot share (corsi) (-5.8 points). The line is TOR -1.5, total 5.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| NSH | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Last five | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
NSH starter: Juuse Saros. NSH out: Justus Annunen. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz. TOR out: Dakota Joshua, Max Domi.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| William Nylander | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Anthony Stolarz | saves | 29.5 | 27.5 or lower | 30.5 or higher |
| Anthony Stolarz | goals against | 3 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Auston Matthews | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Filip Forsberg | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Utah Mammoth at New Jersey Devils: NJD 53%
The model has NJD at 53% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: motivation (+4.6 points), head to head (+3.7 points), rest (+2.3 points). The case against is goal margin (-6.7 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 6.5.
| UTA | NJD | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +2.3 | -2.5 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head to head | 0 wins | 4 wins |
UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux. NJD starter: Jake Allen.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jack Hughes | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Dylan Guenther | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Clayton Keller | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Clayton Keller | assists | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jesper Bratt | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
New York Islanders at New York Rangers: NYR 53%
The model has NYR at 53% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: motivation (+5.0 points), power play (+3.9 points), recent form (+2.6 points). The case against is streak (-5.9 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 5.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| NYI | NYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +2.5 | +1.2 |
| Home / road | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | W1 | W3 |
| Last five | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
NYI starter: Semyon Varlamov. NYI out: Mathew Barzal. NYR starter: Igor Shesterkin (projected). NYR out: Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Bo Horvat | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Igor Shesterkin | saves | 21.1 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Igor Shesterkin | goals against | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matthew Schaefer | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Carolina Hurricanes at Montréal Canadiens: CAR 52%
The model has CAR at 52% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+12.0 points), venue (+4.7 points), motivation (+4.6 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.6 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5.
| CAR | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1-1 | 1-0-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.0 | +0.0 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | W1 | O1 |
| Last five | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis. MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Kaiden Guhle, Ivan Demidov.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Andrei Svechnikov | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Nick Suzuki | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Nick Suzuki | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Cole Caufield | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Florida Panthers at Los Angeles Kings: FLA 51%
The model has FLA at 51% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: recent form (+3.2 points), head to head (+2.7 points), goal margin (+2.5 points). The case against is streak (-3.1 points). The line is FLA -1.5, total 5.5.
| FLA | LAK | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0-2 | 0-1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.3 | -2.5 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | O2 | O1 |
| Last five | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom (projected). FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Jonah Gadjovich. LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Byfield | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Adrian Kempe | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Cole Reinhardt | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Alex Laferriere | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Trevor Moore | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings: DET 51%
The model has DET at 51% against a market price of 50.0%. What drives it: streak (+9.7 points), back to back (+7.9 points), rest (+6.9 points). The case against is recent form (-6.3 points). The line is DET -1.5, total 5.5.
| OTT | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +2.0 | -1.5 |
| Home / road | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L2 |
| Last five | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
OTT starter: Samuel Ersson (projected). OTT out: Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson, Andre Burakovsky, Kurtis MacDermid. DET starter: John Gibson (likely). DET out: Marco Kasper, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Simon Edvinsson.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Tim Stützle | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Alex DeBrincat | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Shane Pinto | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres: BUF 50.2%
The model has BUF at 50.2% against a market price of 49.6%. What drives it: streak (+3.1 points), shot margin (+0.8 points), penalty kill (+0.6 points). The case against is goal margin (-4.2 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 6.5.
| MIN | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +2.5 | -1.0 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Last five | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber. BUF starter: Colten Ellis (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Topias Leinonen, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Jason Zucker.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Tage Thompson | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Rasmus Dahlin | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz | UTA | 0.90 | 59% | -146 | -129 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 0.83 | 56% | -129 | -115 |
| Cole Reinhardt | FLA | 0.77 | 54% | -116 | -104 |
| Steven Stamkos | NSH | 0.72 | 51% | -105 | +105 |
| Quinton Byfield | LAK | 0.72 | 51% | -105 | +105 |
| Dylan Larkin | DET | 0.71 | 51% | -103 | +107 |
| William Nylander | TOR | 0.68 | 49% | +103 | +114 |
| Sebastian Aho | CAR | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | STL | 0.63 | 47% | +114 | +125 |
| Cole Caufield | MTL | 0.63 | 47% | +114 | +125 |
| Tage Thompson | BUF | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
| Dylan Guenther | UTA | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
Yesterday's board
4 games, the model went 3-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at TBL | TBL | 61% | 59% | 66% | TBL 4-1 | Hit | TBL -205 (hit) |
| SJS at DAL | DAL | 59% | 56% | 64% | DAL 5-0 | Hit | DAL -175 (hit) |
| WPG at PIT | PIT | 59% | 57% | 62% | WPG 3-2 | Miss | PIT -170 (miss) |
| OTT at BOS | OTT | 51% | 50.3% | 52% | OTT 4-1 | Hit | OTT -115 (hit) |
Where the model and the market split: DAL over SJS: model 56%, market 64%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. TBL over PHI: model 59%, market 66%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: TBL 61% over PHI (hit), DAL 59% over SJS (hit), PIT 59% over WPG (miss).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-1 on its 4 legs here.
Season to date through October 5: 23-20 (53.5%), Brier 0.235; picks at 60% or better are 5-1.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 23 of 43 (53.5%), Brier score 0.235. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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