NHL Picks for October 5: TBL 61% Leads a 4-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
4 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-05. The firmest call is TBL at 61% over PHI; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 3. Season to date the model is 20-19 (51.3%) on graded picks, Brier 0.236.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at TBL | TBL | 61% | 66% | -5 | -218 | TBL -1.5 | 5.5 | TBL -205 |
| SJS at DAL | DAL | 59% | 64% | -5 | -205 | DAL -1.5 | 6.5 | DAL -175 |
| WPG at PIT | PIT | 59% | 62% | -3 | -180 | PIT -1.5 | 6.5 | PIT -170 |
| OTT at BOS | OTT | 51% | 52% | -1 | -118 | OTT -1.5 | 5.5 | OTT -115 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Where the model and the market disagree
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:
TBL over PHI: we make it 61%, the market 66% (a 5-point gap).
DAL over SJS: we make it 59%, the market 64% (a 5-point gap).
PIT over WPG: we make it 59%, the market 62% (a 3-point gap).
Game by game
Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning: TBL 61%
The model has TBL at 61% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+5.6 points), venue (+4.8 points), goal margin (+3.8 points). The case against is home/road split (-3.1 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 5.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| PHI | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1-2 | 1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -3.0 | -1.0 |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | O2 | W1 |
| Last five | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
PHI starter: Dan Vladar. PHI out: Helge Grans, Nikita Grebenkin. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brandon Hagel | shots on goal | 4 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jake Guentzel | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matvei Michkov | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | saves | 21.9 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | goals against | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars: DAL 59%
The model has DAL at 59% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: streak (+9.4 points), venue (+3.8 points), power play (+3.5 points). The case against is recent form (-6.1 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| SJS | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.0 | -2.5 |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L2 |
| Last five | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 1 wins | 5 wins |
SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger. DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Macklin Celebrini | assists | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jason Robertson | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Will Smith | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Igor Chernyshov | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Wyatt Johnston | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins: PIT 59%
The model has PIT at 59% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: back to back (+7.7 points), rest (+6.7 points), motivation (+4.9 points). The case against is streak (-3.0 points). The line is PIT -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| WPG | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0-1 | 2-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.0 | +4.0 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Last five | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
WPG starter: Clay Stevenson. WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Elias Salomonsson, Walker Duehr. PIT starter: Sergei Murashov. PIT out: Ryan Graves, Bryan Rust, Justin Brazeau.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | shots on goal | 4.3 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Evgeni Malkin | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evgeni Malkin | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Sidney Crosby | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Sidney Crosby | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Egor Chinakhov | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mark Scheifele | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins: OTT 51%
The model has OTT at 51% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+5.9 points), head to head (+2.3 points), schedule load (+2.0 points). The case against is streak (-5.9 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 5.5.
| OTT | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.0 | +0.3 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Last five | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
OTT starter: Linus Ullmark. OTT out: Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson, Andre Burakovsky, Kurtis MacDermid. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| David Pastrnak | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Swayman | saves | 27.1 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Swayman | goals against | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mark Kastelic | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Claude Giroux | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | DAL | 0.61 | 46% | +119 | +130 |
| Igor Chernyshov | SJS | 0.61 | 46% | +119 | +130 |
| Mark Kastelic | BOS | 0.59 | 45% | +124 | +136 |
| Macklin Celebrini | SJS | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
| Evgeni Malkin | PIT | 0.52 | 40% | +147 | +160 |
| Avery Hayes | PIT | 0.51 | 40% | +150 | +163 |
| Will Smith | SJS | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 0.47 | 38% | +167 | +181 |
| Matvei Michkov | PHI | 0.46 | 37% | +171 | +185 |
| Fabian Zetterlund | OTT | 0.44 | 36% | +181 | +196 |
| Jake Guentzel | TBL | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| Egor Chinakhov | PIT | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
Yesterday's board
5 games, the model went 4-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK at VAN | VGK | 67% | 65% | 70% | VGK 3-2 | Hit | VGK -245 (hit) |
| CGY at SEA | SEA | 56% | 55% | 58% | SEA 6-1 | Hit | SEA -155 (hit) |
| UTA at NYR | NYR | 52% | 51% | 53% | NYR 4-2 | Hit | NYR -130 (hit) |
| FLA at ANA | ANA | 51% | 54% | 45% | ANA 3-2 | Hit | ANA +114 (hit) |
| WPG at DET | DET | 50.2% | 49.8% | 51% | WPG 3-2 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: FLA at ANA: the model took ANA (54%), the market FLA; the served pick was ANA and the pick hit. WPG at DET: the model took WPG (50.2%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick missed. VGK over VAN: model 65%, market 70%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: VGK 67% over VAN (hit), SEA 56% over CGY (hit), NYR 52% over UTA (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-0 on its 4 legs here.
Season to date through October 4: 20-19 (51.3%), Brier 0.236; picks at 60% or better are 4-1.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 20 of 39 (51.3%), Brier score 0.236. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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