MLB2026-10-11MLB Picks for October 11: MIL 51% Leads a 1-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
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1 MLB game on the board for 2026-10-11. The firmest call is MIL at 51% over LAD; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 819-630 (56.5%) on graded picks, Brier 0.242.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at MIL | MIL | 51% | 51% | 0 | -113 | MIL -1.5 | 6 | MIL -113 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: MIL 51%
The model has MIL at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: venue (+4.0 points), home/road split (+1.4 points), streak (+1.4 points). The case against is travel (-1.6 points). The line is MIL -1.5, total 6.
| LAD | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 100-62 | 103-59 |
| Margin per game (runs) | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Home / road | 49-32 | 55-26 |
| Streak | W3 | W5 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
LAD out: Ben Casparius, Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Eric Lauer, Gavin Stone. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brandon Woodruff, Brian Fitzpatrick, Grant Anderson, Quinn Priester.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | strikeouts | 6.9 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Tarik Skubal | innings pitched | 6.3 | 5.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Jacob Misiorowski | strikeouts | 7.1 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Jacob Misiorowski | innings pitched | 5.2 | 4.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Jackson Chourio | hits | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jackson Chourio | rbis | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| William Contreras | hits | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Home run list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | LAD | 0.38 | 32% | +216 | +233 |
| William Contreras | MIL | 0.24 | 21% | +369 | +394 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | 0.24 | 21% | +369 | +394 |
| Enrique Hernández | LAD | 0.24 | 21% | +369 | +394 |
| Bo Naylor | MIL | 0.23 | 20% | +388 | +413 |
| Jackson Chourio | MIL | 0.17 | 16% | +541 | +575 |
| Andy Pages | LAD | 0.16 | 15% | +576 | +611 |
| Gary Sánchez | MIL | 0.15 | 14% | +619 | +657 |
| Teoscar Hernández | LAD | 0.15 | 14% | +619 | +657 |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | 0.14 | 13% | +663 | +704 |
| Alex Freeland | LAD | 0.12 | 11% | +785 | +832 |
Yesterday's board
1 game, the model went 1-0.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 56% | 57% | 56% | CLE 2-0 | Hit | CLE -143 (hit) |
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls: CLE 56% over CWS (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 1-0 on its 1 leg here.
Season to date through October 10: 819-630 (56.5%), Brier 0.242; picks at 60% or better are 176-89.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2025-10-11: 819 of 1449 (56.5%), Brier score 0.242. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the MLB accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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