MLB Picks for October 5: CLE 58% Leads a 2-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
2 MLB games on the board for 2026-10-05. The firmest call is CLE at 58% over CWS; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 815-624 (56.6%) on graded picks, Brier 0.242.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 58% | 58% | 0 | -156 | CLE -1.5 | 6.5 | CLE -163 |
| NYY at TB | NYY | 53% | 53% | 0 | -123 | NYY -1.5 | 6.5 | NYY -131 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians: CLE 58%
The model has CLE at 58% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: home/road split (+1.5 points), venue (+1.0 points), starting pitchers (+0.7 points). The case against is clutch hitting (-0.7 points). The line is CLE -1.5, total 6.5.
| CWS | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 84-78 | 85-77 |
| Margin per game (runs) | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Home / road | 36-45 | 41-40 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
CWS out: Jordan Leasure, Ky Bush, Luis Castillo, Mike Vasil, Prelander Berroa. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | strikeouts | 8.4 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Gavin Williams | innings pitched | 5.7 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Anthony Kay | strikeouts | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Anthony Kay | innings pitched | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Kyle Manzardo | rbis | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Brayan Rocchio | hits | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: NYY 53%
The model has NYY at 53% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: starting pitchers (+1.0 points), clutch hitting (+0.8 points), travel (+0.5 points). The case against is venue (-3.9 points). The line is NYY -1.5, total 6.5.
| NYY | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 93-68 | 98-64 |
| Margin per game (runs) | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| Home / road | 47-34 | 55-26 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
NYY out: Clarke Schmidt, Fernando Cruz, Kervin Castro, Aaron Judge. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | strikeouts | 7.6 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Cam Schlittler | innings pitched | 5.7 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Freddy Peralta | strikeouts | 4.7 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Freddy Peralta | innings pitched | 5.5 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Ben Rice | hits | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Home run list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | NYY | 0.30 | 26% | +286 | +306 |
| Kyle Manzardo | CLE | 0.26 | 23% | +337 | +360 |
| Brayan Rocchio | CLE | 0.25 | 22% | +352 | +376 |
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | 0.25 | 22% | +352 | +376 |
| Jonny DeLuca | TB | 0.23 | 20% | +388 | +413 |
| Brenton Doyle | CWS | 0.22 | 20% | +408 | +434 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | 0.18 | 16% | +506 | +538 |
| Luis García Jr. | NYY | 0.17 | 16% | +541 | +575 |
| Angel Martínez | CLE | 0.17 | 16% | +541 | +575 |
| Jo Adell | CLE | 0.16 | 15% | +576 | +611 |
| George Lombard Jr. | NYY | 0.16 | 15% | +576 | +611 |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | 0.16 | 15% | +576 | +611 |
Yesterday's board
2 games, the model went 1-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at LAD | LAD | 58% | 56% | 58% | ATL 3-2 | Miss | LAD -157 (miss) |
| SD at MIL | MIL | 55% | 58% | 55% | MIL 4-3 | Hit | MIL -143 (hit) |
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls: LAD 58% over ATL (miss), MIL 55% over SD (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 1-1 on its 2 legs here.
Season to date through October 4: 815-624 (56.6%), Brier 0.242; picks at 60% or better are 176-89.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2025-10-05: 815 of 1439 (56.6%), Brier score 0.242. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the MLB accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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