MLB Picks for September 29: NYY 56% Leads a 3-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
3 MLB games on the board for 2026-09-29. The firmest call is NYY at 56% over BOS; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 805-619 (56.5%) on graded picks, Brier 0.242.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at NYY | NYY | 56% | 56% | 0 | -139 | NYY -1.5 | 6 |
| CHC at SD | SD | 53% | 53% | 0 | -124 | SD -1.5 | 7.5 |
| CWS at HOU | HOU | 52% | 53% | 0 | -123 | HOU -1.5 | 8 |
Game by game
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees: NYY 56%
The model has NYY at 56% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: venue (+2.8 points), clutch hitting (+1.0 points), record (+0.5 points). The case against is umpire (-0.5 points). The line is NYY -1.5, total 6.
| BOS | NYY | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 87-75 | 93-68 |
| Margin per game (runs) | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Home / road | 46-35 | 46-34 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
BOS out: Eduardo Rivera, Johan Oviedo, Justin Slaten, Kutter Crawford, Tyron Guerrero. NYY out: Clarke Schmidt, Fernando Cruz, Kervin Castro, Ryan Weathers, Aaron Judge.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | strikeouts | 7.5 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Cam Schlittler | innings pitched | 5.9 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Payton Tolle | strikeouts | 7.1 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Payton Tolle | innings pitched | 5.7 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Ben Rice | hits | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: SD 53%
The model has SD at 53% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: power (+2.6 points), venue (+2.4 points), home/road split (+2.1 points). The case against is clutch hitting (-1.6 points). The line is SD -1.5, total 7.5.
| CHC | SD | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 89-73 | 91-71 |
| Margin per game (runs) | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| Home / road | 43-38 | 51-30 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 wins |
CHC out: Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Hunter Harvey, Justin Steele, Phil Maton. SD out: Bryan Hoeing, Casey Mize, Jeremiah Estrada, Lucas Giolito, Luis Rengifo.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | strikeouts | 4.9 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Michael King | innings pitched | 5.8 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Matthew Boyd | strikeouts | 4.2 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matthew Boyd | innings pitched | 5.8 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | hits | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Seiya Suzuki | hits | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros: HOU 52%
The model has HOU at 52% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: venue (+2.0 points), home/road split (+1.0 points), head to head (+0.5 points). The case against is clutch hitting (-1.4 points). The line is HOU -1.5, total 8.
| CWS | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 84-78 | 81-81 |
| Margin per game (runs) | +0.3 | -0.2 |
| Home / road | 36-45 | 39-42 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
CWS out: Jordan Leasure, Ky Bush, Luis Castillo, Mike Vasil, Prelander Berroa. HOU out: Brandon Walter, Cristian Javier, Enyel De Los Santos, Mike Burrows, Steven Okert.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | hits | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Yordan Alvarez | rbis | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Peña | hits | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Peña | runs | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Isaac Paredes | hits | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Lucas Spence | rbis | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Christian Walker | hits | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Christian Walker | rbis | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Home run list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Spence | HOU | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | 0.47 | 38% | +167 | +181 |
| Christian Walker | HOU | 0.42 | 34% | +192 | +207 |
| Isaac Paredes | HOU | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | 0.33 | 28% | +256 | +275 |
| Jeremy Peña | HOU | 0.31 | 27% | +275 | +294 |
| Ben Rice | NYY | 0.30 | 26% | +286 | +306 |
| Chase Meidroth | CWS | 0.28 | 24% | +310 | +331 |
| Manny Machado | SD | 0.27 | 24% | +322 | +344 |
| George Lombard Jr. | NYY | 0.26 | 23% | +337 | +360 |
| Brenton Doyle | CWS | 0.26 | 23% | +337 | +360 |
| Austin Wells | NYY | 0.25 | 22% | +352 | +376 |
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2025-09-29: 805 of 1424 (56.5%), Brier score 0.242. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the MLB accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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