MLB Picks for September 27: The Model Went 10-4
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 27. The model went 10-4 on the day and 1 still pending. Season to date through September 27: 805-619 (56.5%), Brier 0.242.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL at MIL | MIL | 68% | 69% | 68% | MIL 6-4 | Hit |
| LAD at SF | LAD | 67% | 53% | 68% | LAD 5-1 | Hit |
| HOU at ATH | HOU | 62% | 56% | 62% | HOU 9-0 | Hit |
| CIN at TOR | TOR | 62% | 61% | 62% | TOR 5-1 | Hit |
| COL at CWS | CWS | 61% | 62% | 61% | CWS 4-2 | Hit |
| LAA at SEA | SEA | 60% | 66% | 60% | SEA 7-3 | Hit |
| TB at PHI | PHI | 60% | 56% | 60% | PHI 7-3 | Hit |
| AZ at SD | AZ | 57% | 51% | 57% | SD 9-4 | Miss |
| CLE at KC | CLE | 56% | 64% | 55% | KC 3-2 | Miss |
| TEX at MIN | TEX | 53% | 49% | 53% | MIN 6-4 | Miss |
| BAL at NYY | NYY | 53% | 54% | 53% | - | Pending |
| CHC at BOS | CHC | 53% | 48% | 53% | CHC 6-2 | Hit |
| PIT at DET | PIT | 53% | 52% | 53% | PIT 4-2 | Hit |
| ATL at MIA | MIA | 52% | 52% | 52% | MIA 5-3 | Hit |
| NYM at WSH | NYM | 50.1% | 50.5% | 50.1% | WSH 6-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
CHC at BOS: the model took BOS (52%), the market CHC; the served pick was CHC and the pick hit. TEX at MIN: the model took MIN (51%), the market TEX; the served pick was TEX and the pick missed. LAD over SF: model 53%, market 68%, a 15-point gap; the pick hit. CLE over KC: model 64%, market 55%, a 9-point gap; the pick missed. HOU over ATH: model 56%, market 62%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. AZ over SD: model 51%, market 57%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 68% over STL (hit), LAD 67% over SF (hit), HOU 62% over ATH (hit).
Season to date
Through September 27: 805-619 (56.5%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.242. Picks at 60% or better went 173-89.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.