MLB Picks for September 26: The Model Went 9-4
By Verdexed Analytics
13 MLB games on September 26. The model went 9-4 on the day. Season to date through September 26: 795-615 (56.4%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at SF | LAD | 71% | 76% | 71% | LAD 4-3 | Hit |
| COL at CWS | CWS | 68% | 59% | 68% | COL 9-6 | Miss |
| LAA at SEA | SEA | 59% | 64% | 59% | SEA 8-4 | Hit |
| STL at MIL | MIL | 59% | 60% | 59% | MIL 3-2 | Hit |
| CIN at TOR | TOR | 59% | 58% | 59% | CIN 5-1 | Miss |
| HOU at ATH | HOU | 59% | 53% | 59% | HOU 13-2 | Hit |
| AZ at SD | SD | 53% | 54% | 53% | SD 10-7 | Hit |
| TEX at MIN | TEX | 53% | 51% | 53% | TEX 6-2 | Hit |
| PIT at DET | DET | 53% | 55% | 53% | DET 4-3 | Hit |
| ATL at MIA | ATL | 52% | 52% | 52% | ATL 8-3 | Hit |
| CLE at KC | CLE | 51% | 52% | 51% | CLE 11-5 | Hit |
| TB at PHI | PHI | 50.4% | 50.4% | 50.4% | TB 12-1 | Miss |
| NYM at WSH | WSH | 50.3% | 52% | 50.2% | NYM 7-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
CWS over COL: model 59%, market 68%, a 10-point gap; the pick missed. HOU over ATH: model 53%, market 59%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over SF: model 76%, market 71%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit. SEA over LAA: model 64%, market 59%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 71% over SF (hit), CWS 68% over COL (miss), SEA 59% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through September 26: 795-615 (56.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 167-89.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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