MLB Picks for September 25: The Model Went 8-9
By Verdexed Analytics
17 MLB games on September 25. The model went 8-9 on the day. Season to date through September 25: 786-611 (56.3%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at SF | LAD | 74% | 80% | 74% | LAD 2-0 | Hit |
| COL at CWS | CWS | 69% | 69% | 69% | CWS 6-1 | Hit |
| STL at MIL | MIL | 63% | 60% | 63% | MIL 8-4 | Hit |
| HOU at ATH | HOU | 62% | 60% | 62% | ATH 6-5 | Miss |
| TB at PHI | PHI | 60% | 52% | 61% | TB 2-0 | Miss |
| CLE at KC | CLE | 57% | 56% | 57% | CLE 12-9 | Hit |
| AZ at SD | SD | 55% | 55% | 55% | AZ 11-4 | Miss |
| CIN at TOR | TOR | 55% | 55% | 55% | TOR 6-5 | Hit |
| BAL at NYY | NYY | 54% | 54% | 54% | NYY 6-3 | Hit |
| BAL at NYY | NYY | 54% | 54% | 54% | BAL 10-2 | Miss |
| CHC at BOS | CHC | 53% | 51% | 53% | BOS 4-3 | Miss |
| CHC at BOS | CHC | 53% | 51% | 53% | BOS 2-0 | Miss |
| LAA at SEA | SEA | 52% | 55% | 52% | LAA 7-5 | Miss |
| ATL at MIA | ATL | 52% | 48% | 52% | MIA 3-0 | Miss |
| TEX at MIN | TEX | 51% | 52% | 51% | MIN 10-2 | Miss |
| NYM at WSH | WSH | 50.2% | 53% | 50.1% | WSH 7-6 | Hit |
| PIT at DET | DET | 50.1% | 54% | 49.9% | DET 8-7 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
PIT at DET: the model took DET (54%), the market PIT; the served pick was DET and the pick hit. ATL at MIA: the model took MIA (52%), the market ATL; the served pick was ATL and the pick missed. PHI over TB: model 52%, market 61%, a 9-point gap; the pick missed. LAD over SF: model 80%, market 74%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 74% over SF (hit), CWS 69% over COL (hit), MIL 63% over STL (hit).
Season to date
Through September 25: 786-611 (56.3%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 166-88.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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