MLB Picks for September 24: The Model Went 7-5
By Verdexed Analytics
12 MLB games on September 24. The model went 7-5 on the day. Season to date through September 24: 778-602 (56.4%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at ATL | ATL | 67% | 72% | 67% | CIN 7-6 | Miss |
| LAA at SEA | SEA | 66% | 65% | 66% | LAA 6-4 | Miss |
| MIA at CHC | CHC | 64% | 62% | 65% | CHC 2-1 | Hit |
| AZ at COL | AZ | 63% | 59% | 63% | AZ 12-8 | Hit |
| SD at LAD | LAD | 61% | 60% | 61% | SD 4-2 | Miss |
| HOU at ATH | HOU | 60% | 59% | 60% | HOU 7-5 | Hit |
| STL at PIT | PIT | 59% | 54% | 59% | PIT 2-1 | Hit |
| TB at NYY | NYY | 58% | 57% | 58% | NYY 6-4 | Hit |
| CWS at KC | CWS | 56% | 49% | 56% | CWS 9-1 | Hit |
| MIL at PHI | PHI | 55% | 49% | 55% | MIL 5-1 | Miss |
| NYM at TEX | TEX | 54% | 52% | 54% | TEX 3-1 | Hit |
| CLE at BOS | BOS | 54% | 54% | 54% | CLE 1-0 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
CWS at KC: the model took KC (51%), the market CWS; the served pick was CWS and the pick hit. MIL at PHI: the model took MIL (51%), the market PHI; the served pick was PHI and the pick missed. ATL over CIN: model 72%, market 67%, a 5-point gap; the pick missed. PIT over STL: model 54%, market 59%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: ATL 67% over CIN (miss), SEA 66% over LAA (miss), CHC 64% over MIA (hit).
Season to date
Through September 24: 778-602 (56.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 163-86.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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